2-3 weeks late, but I just saw that the player option is only available if Verlander reaches 130 IP. I feel a lot better about the deal as odds are good that he's well worth the $25M if he makes it to 130 innings. If he's bad or gets hurt in the 1st 4 months, odds are not good that he'll reach 130 innings. There is some risk that he gets hurt in late August or September, and the Astros end up paying $50M for 130 innings that are likely good over 2 years.
Early returns on Verlander? He's leading MLB starters in innings pitched and WHIP through four starts, he's 8th in Ks and 12th in ERA. I think it's safe to say he's exceeded expectations thus far. If he keeps up, this deal will be a steal.
Leading in IP has to be somewhat concerning. You have to think they don't want him throwing 200 innings before the postseason.
To some extent, sure. But it's also super promising that he's capable of pitching late into games early in the season despite coming off TJS in a season with such a short spring training. Knowing Dusty, I have to think Verlander will miss some starts due to rest throughout the year. It would also help if the Astros could get him some run support so he wouldn't have to pitch into the 7th every game.
I think they are more worried about pitches thrown for a guy like Verlander, and he's been extremely efficient in that regard. 91 yesterday which was his season high. He's only thrown 343 pitches so far, in 2019 he had already thrown 519 at this point. The team has already taken measures to cut him well down from his previous workload. If he continues to only need 90 pitches to get through 7 innings then I don't think they will have an issue with him being around 200 innings, but I suspect he won't.
The Astros are second in innings pitched by starters since Dusty has been manager. Odorizzi getting hurt, Odorizzi crapping the bed early, and Dusty having no faith in Odorizzi (see crapping the bed) are the only three reasons the Astros aren't far and away the team that places the greatest workload on their starting pitching.
Verlander took 2 offseasons + part of a season to heal. Rather than simply a year. He is pitching on at least 5 days rest between each start so far and is throwing much fewer pitches per start. As a fan I am VERY OK with this So far so good. The idea that he is leading the league in IP is a product of how everyone else is being used, not how Justin is.
He is averaging about 11 pitches per inning which is about 2/3rds from a typical good starting pitcher at about 15 on a good performance.
I guess I'm cherry picking the starts I remember, which are probably his better starts. It's good to check the memory against the stats. Thank You.
All kinda splits for all kinds of players: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=verlaju01&year=2022&t=p
