He would have, the deal wouldn't have been good but it'd be better than what they'll end up with now, Prior to any military intervention, they would have agreed to end the water blockading to crimea, withdraw all troops and create a demilitarized zone out of donbas and lubansk if they'd negotiated on day one, they would have lost donbas, lubansk, and the landbridge to crimea, but not Odessa, a shitty deal, but if they kept their coast, there was still some hope. Russia views diplomacy and war as two parts of the same coin, as they escalate the conflict, so do their demands. Now it will include Odessa, then link up with Transnistria Completely landlock the Ukraine, take almost all their gas and oil fields, turn them into a rump state that will cost the west $20b a month, that's if we don't toss them, Europe will say screw em as soon as the fervor dies down (Germany will front it, the other nations are too afraid to stand up to the narrative, but either way, the EU will never allow them in), the secondary risk of why they can NEVER have an open border is that we've handed them, including islamic extremists and neo nazi mercs a massive supply of modern untracked weaponry, and they cant risk that flowing into mainland Europe.
"The United States toughened its messaging on the Ukraine war on Monday, saying the American aim was not just to thwart the Russian invasion but also to weaken Russia so it could no longer carry out such military aggression anywhere." nyt today No skin in the game for the US. Us leaders are willing to fight to the last Ukrainian for this. Does not seem like we want diplomacy.
You'll continue to hear this among some armchair pundits...people will "wonder aloud" if Trump appeasing Putin from the get go (no invasion) would've been better. This would mean neutering Ukraine's fledgling gas trade and pipelines, reducing military aid sent, and likely some government change within Ukraine where the US looks the other way and NATO is blocked. All wars are now bayud mmkay, so whatever the costs must be paid. Let's say there is no Biden's War that comes out of that....I'm not sure what Putin would do after someone other than Trump gets in (R or D). I suppose in that time Putin would send more patriots to colonize or inflict terror in those disputed reasons to normalize what a shitshow Ukraine would have become.
I think the Biden admin has been doing a good job with regards to Ukraine. Very much in contrast to the shameful showing by Germany.
If the war isn't resolved by midterms, those voices will grow louder and louder, if just to spread uncertainty/doubt. ...Whether or not Biden could will that to happen
I'm so sick of hearing this - "we do nothing and just stand by" b.s. The US has given Ukraine 2.5 billion in military aid BEFORE the latest conflict, not counting all the new aid. US troops have been in Ukraine training their army for a while now, again long before the latest invasion. Not to mention all the other aid provided by NATO - sitting by? Just ridiculous.
That is not the same thing, it is what we did in Afganastan when Russia was there for 20 years, it was what both us and them did in Vietnam, we constantly fight proxy wars...... Russia is weak - very weak, just supplying money is not enough, when we could end this in a couple of weeks once NATO commits. DD
Once you attack Russia, the retaliation with nukes is a non-zero possibility. You seem not to grasp that.
As Von Klauswitz said "War is politics by other means". Certainly if Russia were to negotiate now they would like get more Ukrainian territory than they would've in February but at a massive costs. They've lost tens of thousands of troops, several high level officers, thousands of tanks and planes, and the flagship of their Black Sea fleet. The Russian military and economy is far weaker now than when the war started. Also even if Russia ends up stronger in the region Russia's overall strategic position is much weaker. If the goal of this war was to prevent NATO expansion that has spectacularly backfired with Finland and Sweden likely joining NATO. Also even though Orban was reelected other Putin sympathizers in France and Slovenia have been defeated and Poland is firmly back Westward leaning. NATO is as strong as it has been in years and if Germany were to increase their military that would represent a much larger threat to Russia. Economically sanctions aren't likely to be lifted and the war has convinced many countries that tying their energy security to Russia is a bad idea. Lithuania weening themselves of Russian energy is only the start.
Yes Russia is weak, it was very weak in 1812 and 1941 but it didn't end well those who tried to finish off Russia then either. All of that was without the ability of Russia to end civilization as we know it. That Russia is weak now is more reason to arm and support the Ukrainians to do they fighting. If they can hold off Russia and push them back there is no need for the US to step in.
There were and still are many opportunities for diplomacy. Macron with the support the US spent a lot of time negotiating with Putin. Zelensky is still willing to negotiate. Putin is the one who turned down those negotiations.
In the partisan zero sum game it doesn't matter what Biden does. Russia could withdraw from all of Ukraine and Zelensky publicly say it was due to Biden's help and there will be continue to be critics.
