ESPN - Rocket's offseason guide

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...-2022-rockets-accelerate-their-rebuild-summer

The growing pains the Houston Rockets have encountered since trading James Harden to the Brooklyn Nets 15 months ago have been both painful and rewarding.

Yes, the Rockets have lost at least 50 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the early 1980s. However, they've also seen growth in their roster, starting with rookie Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood.

Houston will continue the rebuild this offseason, when the Rockets should have a top-five pick in the June draft, which could accelerate the process of becoming a winning team.



State of the roster
Roster status: Rebuilding (with resources to take a big jump in 2022-23).

There was a point early in the 2021-22 season when the Rockets were trending toward having the worst record in league history. After winning the home opener against the Thunder, Houston went on to lose 15 games in a row. Houston eventually rebounded, winning its next seven games, including victories against Brooklyn and Chicago. However, after tasting success, the Rockets went 3-15, including an eight-game losing streak.

That stretch of basketball from mid-October to early January best describes the Rockets' inconsistent season and their inability to handle success. Every two solid games would be followed by an extended losing streak. Houston had six losing streaks of three or more games, including 15, 12 and eight.

The inconsistent play is common for a team that has eight players under the age of 23 and the sixth-youngest roster in the NBA.

Still, in a season of growing pains, the backcourt of Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. showed improvement
Green has had five consecutive 30-point games, the second-longest streak by a rookie over the past 50 seasons, behind only Allen Iverson (six). He averaged 20.1 points on 47% shooting and 40% from 3 after Feb. 1. Prior to that, Green was shooting 37% overall and 29% from 3. Per Second Spectrum data, Green has shot 44% on off-the-dribble jumpers since the beginning of February, up from 28% in October to January.

Porter, meanwhile, has seen his turnovers per game decrease from 3.7 (October to January) to 2.3 since Feb. 1.

The offseason will present the Rockets another opportunity to improve and possibly change the landscape of their roster.

The Rockets return 13 players under contract (including John Wall, who has a player option for next season) and will face a balancing act on adding to their roster. The Rockets could have two lottery picks (they have an unprotected first from Brooklyn) in the June draft and face big decisions on Wall, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon and Porter.

Finding closure with John Wall
The only thing guaranteed about Wall's future is that he will opt into his $47.1 million salary for 2022-23. After that, it is up to the Rockets and the former All-Star to bring closure to his stay in Houston, either with a buyout or trade. A buyout was a non-starter before the start of last season.

"I don't want to speak for John, but I can tell you, organizationally, we don't have any interest in [a buyout] at this time," general manager Rafael Stone said. "We'll keep talking and everything else. I don't think that makes sense for John. I don't think it makes any sense for us. So we're going to find things that make sense for both parties as opposed to finding something that doesn't make any sense for either."

At the time, Wall had $91 million left on his contract and it made no sense for Houston to have over $70 million in dead cap money spread out evenly on their books for the next two seasons.

However, after not finding a trade partner this season, the reality is that a buyout could be the Rockets' lone option. One thing to keep in mind is that the Rockets received a first-round pick from Washington to acquire Wall, and entertaining buyout talks is not seen as a failed transaction.

From a buyout perspective, the question comes down to how much Wall is willing to give back. There have been only four players in NBA history (Bison Dele, Larry Sanders, Derek Fisher and Kemba Walker) who accepted a buyout that gave back more than $20 million.

The teams that have projected cap space (Indiana, Detroit, San Antonio, Portland and Orlando) are not in need of a starting point guard, and the lone signing mechanism could be the $10.3 million midlevel exception. Would Wall give back $20 million if he could secure a two-year, $20 million contract with his former team in Washington?

A $27 million cap hit is a big number for the Rockets to absorb, but it would create significant savings and leave them with more than $20 million in cap space.

Although Wall is now on an expiring contract, the same challenges Houston faced during the regular season with a trade are present in the offseason. The largest contract in the NBA would require an opposing team to send back $37.7 million in salary. The only player who fits the criteria is Russell Westbrook, and the Lakers already passed on adding draft assets to a deal at the trade deadline. Plus, swapping Wall for Westbrook would simply leave the Rockets in the same situation with a different player.

.....cont

DD

 

Kevin Porter Jr.'s rookie extension
When the Rockets acquired Porter from the Cleveland Cavaliers in January 2021, it was a low-risk move. At the time of the trade, the Rockets were investing $1.8 million -- the amount of the third year of his rookie-scale contract -- to continue Porter's development both on and away from the basketball court.

Although Porter was coming off a rookie season in Cleveland in which he averaged close to 10 points, there were numerous transgressions, including a screaming match with team officials before a game. If the relationship between both sides soured, the Rockets could cut bait at any time and incur a small financial burden. The only asset they would lose was a future top-55 protected second-round pick. However, if a relationship grew out of trust, the Rockets could potentially have their point guard of the future.

After a 15-game stint in the G League after he was acquired, Porter has started every game but three in his two seasons with the Rockets, but his play on the court has been all over the place. After a 10-turnover game to start the season, Porter followed up with 18 points, 10 assists and only two turnovers in the next game. Per Second Spectrum data, Porter has shot 46.7% of catch-and-shoot jumpers on 107 attempts. That ranks fifth best among players with 100 attempts.

Go to Ratings

One part of his game that has gone under the radar is his defense. Per ESPN Stats & Information research, the Rockets have a 105.4 defensive efficiency when Porter plays without Green, better than the overall number for the league-leading Boston Celtics.

Off the court, Porter realizes that the trade to the Rockets saved his basketball career.

"They gave me love and confidence in myself, and motivation to become a better player and person," he said at media day. "They've invested a lot in me, and I try to give them my all to repay them in some way."

Porter is far from a finished product. He was suspended in January for a tirade at halftime that eventually saw him leave the Toyota Center before the game was finished. He would tell the Houston Chronicle that he eventually apologized to his teammates and the Rockets organization.

"I think just as a man and as a human, that's the right thing to do," he said. "Even if you feel like you're in the right, there's ways to approach things in situations, and I felt, as a man, I didn't approach it the right way. So I apologize. I feel like that's just something you need to do as a principled thing."

Now entering the offseason, the front office is faced with an important decision: Have they seen enough from Porter on the basketball court and from a maturity level to reward him with a new contract?

Because Porter was the last pick in the first round in 2019, he has a modest $11.5 million free-agent hold in 2023.

If the Rockets are willing to offer an extension this summer and not wait until he is a restricted free agent in 2023, that number is the starting point of a new contract. A four-year, $51.5 million extension with a team option in the last season benefits both sides. At a minimum, Porter is guaranteed $37 million and the Rockets have the guard on a salary comparable to the midlevel exception and also have an out after the third season.

Christian Wood and Eric Gordon
The offseason should bring more clarity on the futures of Wood and Gordon.

Both players are on expiring contracts (Gordon has a $20.9 million nonguaranteed salary for 2023-24), which means Houston will be more willing to move them than the Rockets were at the 2022 trade deadline, when Houston made it clear it would not trade either player if the right offer did not present itself.

Wood is one of 14 players in the NBA to average 15 points and 10 rebounds this season. Since the All-Star break, he has averaged 19.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, while shooting 57.8% from the field and 45.7% from 3.

Wood is eligible to receive a four-year, $77 million extension this offseason, and the Rockets' front office will certainly weigh the pros and cons of a deal.

The pro is that the $16.4 million salary in 2022-23 ranks in the middle of the pack for starting centers and is justified by Wood's on-court production.

The cons are whether the Rockets can trust Wood on a contract that nearly doubles the $41 million deal that he signed in 2020 and whether Wood's presence blocks the development of 2021 first-round pick Alperen Sengun.

In nine starts this season, the 19-year-old Sengun has averaged 11.4 points and eight rebounds. He had a career-high 27 points in a win against Portland late in the season.

Because there is a six-month extension restriction if he is traded, Wood's trade value decreases if a decision is not made by Aug. 9. The Rockets can still extend him past the August date, but any team that acquires him would have to play out the season with Wood on an expiring contract.

As for Gordon, the Rockets value the on-court and off-court leadership he brings. The Rockets have the worst net rating in the NBA (-8.3) but saw that number drop to -0.5 when Gordon was on the court with Porter and Green.

However, Gordon will turn 34 in December, is coming off one of his more productive seasons and the Rockets will need to weigh his value with their young players or in a possible trade.

"I think we've seen real growth in our young players, and I think Eric is a big part of that," Stone said after the deadline. "He's bought in and wants to be part of it. He feels good about the process. He likes where we are at."

...cont

DD

 

Offseason cap breakdown
John Wall $47,366,760 (player option)
2. Eric Gordon $19,568,360
3. Christian Wood $14,317,460
4. Jalen Green $9,441,840
5. David Nwaba $5,022,000
6. Alperen Sengun $3,375,480
7. Kevin Porter Jr. $3,217,631
8. Usman Garuba $2,471,160
9. Josh Christopher $2,372,160
10. Daishen Nix $1,563,518
11. Garrison Mathews $2,000,000
12. Kenyon Martin Jr. $1,782,621
13. Jae'Sean Tate $1,782,621 (team option)
14. Dennis Schroder1 $7,068,000 (free agent hold)
15. Bruno Fernando2 $2,228,276 (free agent hold)
16. Trevelin Queen3 $1,616,044 (free agent hold)
17. Anthony Lamb3 $1,616,044 (free agent hold)
18. First-rounder (own) $9,759,000 (draft hold)
19. First-rounder (via Brooklyn) $3,488,769 (draft hold)
-- D.J. Augustin $333,333 (dead cap hit)
Guaranteed salary $120.7M*
Dead money $333K
Non-guaranteed $1.8M
Free-agent hold $12.5M
Total salaries on cap 135.4M
2022-23 NBA SALARY CAP $122M
2022-23 NBA LUXURY TAX LINE $147M
1. Non Bird
2. Restricted Bird
3. Restricted Non Bird
*Note: guaranteed salary includes cap hold for first-round pick
Unless Wall takes a significant buyout ($20 million or more), the Rockets are projected to be over the salary cap this offseason. With Wall's $47.4 million contract and $13 million of first-round picks counting against their cap ledger, Houston is right at the $122 million salary cap. Because it is a cap team, Houston will have the $10.3 million midlevel and $4.0 million biannual exception available to use in free agency.

Jae'Sean Tate. On a Rockets roster filled with players drafted in the first and second rounds, it is the undrafted Tate who is their most valuable player. Tate followed up his All-Rookie first-team selection last season to average 12.7 points and 5.5 rebounds this season.

Restrictions

• Houston sent out $1.1 million in two separate trades and is restricted to send out no more than $4.6 million in a trade prior to June 30. Their cash allotment to send or receive in a trade replenishes to $6.2 million starting on July 1.
  
  
• Tate cannot be traded until the team option is exercised.
  

Extension-eligible
Including Dort, the Thunder have a total of seven players who are extension-eligible.

• Tate is extension-eligible if the Rockets exercise his $1.9 million option for next season. The maximum that Houston can offer is four years, $58 million. However, if the Rockets wait until the 2023 offseason, they can take advantage of his $2.3 million free-agent hold and use cap space first to build out the roster before signing the forward. Although the Rockets have the right to match, they run the risk of paying a higher premium to retain Tate if he becomes a free agent.
  
  
• Martin had his contract guaranteed and is extension-eligible this offseason. The Rockets have two options if they want to extend Martin. They can exercise his $1.9 million option for 2023-24 and extend him for an additional three years starting with the 2024-25 season. This is similar to the Terance Mann extension with the Clippers and Daniel Gafford in Washington. They could also amend his current contract to remove the team option and extend him for four seasons, starting in 2023-24.
  

The draft
The Rockets own a total of four unprotected firsts (2023, 2024 and 2026) from Brooklyn and Milwaukee but do owe Oklahoma City two future firsts as part of the Westbrook trade. Houston will send the Thunder a top-four protected first-round pick in 2024 and 2026. If neither are conveyed, the Rockets will then send 2024, 2025 and 2026 second-round picks to Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City also has the right to swap firsts in 2025 if the Rockets' pick is outside of the top 10. If the swap is made, Houston would then have the option to swap the Thunder first for the Brooklyn first. The Rockets have the right to swap firsts with Brooklyn in 2023, 2025 and 2027.

Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Houston selecting in June:

No. 1 (own): Chet Holmgren, PF, Gonzaga

We've truly never seen an NBA prospect quite like Holmgren: A shot-blocking, lob-catching, 3-point shooting, ballhandling 7-foot-1 "big man" with the fluidity of a guard and a relentlessness that doesn't match his slender, 195-pound frame. With a body type that earns him comparisons ranging from Kevin Durant to Brandon Ingram to Kristaps Porzingis to Bol Bol, Holmgren has let his game do the talking. -- Schmitz

No. 14 (via BKN): TyTy Washington Jr., PG/SG, Kentucky

Outside of one week in which Sahvir Wheeler was injured (when Washington broke John Wall's Kentucky single-game record with 17 assists), we never quite got to see what Washington would look like as a full-time point guard, something NBA teams would surely like to know more about. Washington's ability to make reads out of ball screens is arguably his biggest strength, but he averaged less than six pick-and-rolls per game and ranked 467th among Division I players, per Synergy Sports Technology data. Prior to Washington's injuries, he was the most efficient pick-and-roll player in college basketball, but he fell off the past two months. -- Givony


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Good article, even if they list some of our guys out of position like Nix at PF....

DD

 

Hah I have been saying that all year......we are the Ooompa Loompas of the NBA.

DD

 

Wall for Lebrun!

DD