I’ve done the math a few times in other threads. If we finished tied for last, we have roughly 50% chance of top 4, 38% of number 5, 12% of number 6. Numbers 6 is less than 20% because it only comes into play if BOTH Orlando and Houston miss the top-4, and that has only a (roughly) 25% chance of happening. Then it is 50/50 from there, so you have to divide 25% by two. net net, finishing last is 100% chance of top 5, and tied for last is 90% chance. It isn’t a big difference - beat the Nets!
I'm using the stats from tankathon ( https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds#:~:text=2022 NBA Draft Lottery Odds , 4.4 10 more rows ). According to this site the odds for the 5th pick would be about 28%, and the odds of the 6th are 20%. I haven't seen your calculations, so I can only go with these figures.
that is strange because it is showing the Magic as definitively number one and rockets number two (vs a tie). I can’t explain that … if it is actually a tie they each have the same odds of number 5 and 6, so average the odds for 5 and 6 across the top two rows and it matches my numbers. Does anyone know why Tankathon has Magic as the lone worst team?
Not quite. You are making a mistake of assuming that the odds of Orlando not getting in the top 4 is independent of the odds of the Rockets not getting in the top 4. In reality, if Orlando doesn't get into the top 4, then that means the Rockets chances would be higher. Let's say you have a bag filled with 20 red marbles and 20 greens ones. Anyone has a 50% chance of getting a green marble. But if orlando doesn't get a green marble, then the Rockets must be drawing from a bag that has 19 red marbles and 20 green ones, so their odds will change. That's why it's 20, and not 23 (47.9% squared).
Yes, I’m aware of all that - I was a statistics major a few decades ago. That is why I kept saying “roughly” over and over again (and in a different post said I wasn’t accounting for conditional probabilities or the fact that the top 4 isn’t 50/50 because the differences were relatively small). The point was only to show people that if we are tied for worst the odds of number 6 are not much worse than the 0% odds of number 6 if we have the worst record on our own (the poster asserted it was 20% chance of number 6 in a tie scenario, which is two times too high). 1 in 2 (top four), 3 in 8 (number 5), 1 in 8 (number 6) are a lot easier to understand and close enough. Of course the last two are actually less due to both conditional probabilities and the fact it is more than 50% chance of top 4. the question I have now is why tankathon shows Orlando as the sole possessor of the worst slot?
Because the percentages don't reflect ties or coin flips. My guess is it just wasn't built to handle it, so it assumes in this case that Orlando won the coinflip and has the better odds.
It's interesting that you stayed quiet after the Rockets won two in a row over Portland but when they lose you're on here popping off.
it didn't matter to me. was a celebration in order or something? since you decided to bump threads, I went with that same energy. dont bump something and expect nothing in return from the beginning I said the rockets would be lucky to win 2 games in the final 10 games. And it definitely looks like that's happening. winning too much was always a joke
yeah ill bump the threads that pertain to the the discussion of the last 10 games of the year. Whether its 1 or 2 makes no difference
like i said it didn't matter. I wouldn't have been bumping these at all if it weren't for someone like you who decided to bump. And just waited til the dust settled after the 10 games. who tf cares about beating portland. the people on that roster are made up of g-league players or worse
I think it pretty much guaranteed us for a tie for the worst record. We are not going to win another game. Thinking that we are going to beat KD on his home court with so much to play for is a real long shot. Toronto is playing great and both them and Atlanta have plenty to play for.
KD may be hobbled carrying that team on his narrow shoulders. And Kyrie is not ready to play too many games in a row. Anything can still happen. Suns just lost convincingly to the woeful pathetic Thunder.
I'm not mad at the Portland wins. Their squad is especially terrible. Benching the starters wouldn't have mattered much imo. Be happy we're not in a Pistons situation. They're pulling starters and still winning
You didn't wait for the "dust to settle" because you've made a few comments and again I find it interesting that there no comments after the Portland wins. Not trying to argue with you just pointing out something that I find interesting.
