I don't think it's a question of "if" anymore. You can say goodbye to a top 5 pick. The Rockets traded in the tank for a clown car.
Stone has done well by acquiring Green, Sengun, and Josh. Garuba is raw, but he has defensive potential. I don't think that the upcoming draft is deep. Trading down or out of the draft makes more sense to me.
The difference between 5 and 7 in this draft isn't really much. There's a pretty clear top 4, or top 3 and a clear 4th depending on who you ask. We have a 52% shot at a top 4 pick if we stay in the bottom 3 and a 48% chance if we move to 4th. Our odds at the top pick barely change at all. Falling from 5th to 7th really isn't a big deal as far as I'm concerned. Still not something we should be risking, but people are making far too much out of it. https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds
Why do people think we are falling out of the top 5? We are basically in a virtual tie with 3 other teams. Bottom 3 teams get equal chance at #1 we would have to finish 4th (worst we can possibly finish) and have 2 other teams from 5+ win the lotto for our pick to land outside of top 5.
I don't think we are beating the Spurs on Monday They are playing good ball right now and one game out of knocking the Lakers out of the Play-In rounds
You are absolutely correct. Say what you will about their trades, but the draft history of this GM is elite. Green is going to end up a superstar, Sengun will be an all-star, and JC is outperforming anything anyone should have expected. If the front office has screwed up anything it is hiring Silas and not going into full tank mode right now. Green hurt his shin last night, they should use that as an excuse to sit him the rest of the year. Gordon, Schroeder, and Wood ought to be sitting every game.
No team has a better than 50% chance of getting a top 4 pick. That doesn't change in a 3 way tie. What does change is the odds for a 5th pick and 7th pick. The way that gets sorted in a tie is that you take the odds of all three teams, combine them, and then split them equally as you can. So that means in a 3 way tie for first, there is a chance for any team to end up with the 6th or 7th pick.
If the Rockets can’t get Chet, Jabari, Paolo, Ivey, Keegan then they should go Sharpe and prepare for another very long re-building year or trade the pick and Brooklyn pick to either move up or for a really good veteran that they can re-sign.
This is becoming likelier by the day given our moronic decision making down the stretch. I guess I’d take Griffin or Murray but who cares at that point. Waste of a prime tanking season if we don’t get top 4, then the OKC picks will come due.
Yes, it's hard to understand what on earth this organization is thinking. I mean, how do they think winning a few meaningless games is more important than securing a game-changing playing in the draft? But this is where we are. You could see it coming long before.
You know that even if they finish with the worst record, there's still a coin flip's chance they finish outside the top 4, right? I get why people are concerned about not getting that top 3 pick we've all been wanting, but as long as they finish in the bottom 3, their chances at that top 4 pick don't decline at all. And its hard to be mad at them for beating the YMCA pickup team twice in Portland.
The people supporting this will love next year when we are playing for nothing with our pick gone and cannot upgrade the talent level. Going to be beautiful.
