I won't say Chet's weight isn't a concern. each of the top 4 has sort of a critical flaw. its true he hasn't proven to be able to defend guards but he has shown the ability to recover with his length. I don't see him defending the post full time, but I do see him having a defensive impact in the nba with just contesting a bunch of shots like mobley does. granted mobley can defend in space better than chet, and chet can defend the rim better than mobley. however, I wouldn't use only 1 game to evaluate what we've seen from him over the course of the whole year, and even last year. you're right klay has more of a handle, but he's a guard, jabari is a forward. different skillsets were required. I think his catch and shoot game is klay-like in the sense that he can put up a lot of points very efficiently without dribbling much. that has value when you have a high usage guard (hopefully one day) in Jalen. he's also a year or more younger than the other 3 guys. he's by no means a finished product. I know this is cherry picking an example but kawhi came into the league with no jump shot and no handle. jimmy butler was just a defender too. I'm sure if we spent more time thinking we can find examples of guys developing a dribble. one thing is for sure, he brings elite nba skills that he can hang his hat on and they're the two most important to the modern game. shooting, and defending in space. the flaw he has that I'm most worried about is his really low % at the rim. I don't mind a catch and shoot guy if he's an elite 3 level scorer. but if he's just shooting 3's and sometimes middies, is that worthy of a top 2 pick? that's my concern rather than the dribble. we've even seen matthews improve at putting it on the floor once teams started chasing him off the line. I don't think he needs to be Giannis bringing the ball up, but he'll figure out how to put it on the floor when the defense overplays the 3. listen all this is to say I'm still torn between the 4. I had chet over jabari, then Paolo and Ivey. recency bias from the tournament is creeping in and I'm starting to like Ivey and Paolo a bit more. chet and jabari haven't looked great. but like I said its just recency bias and its important not to put too much weight on the tournament. people were ready to take Suggs #2 because of a great tourney run last year. since we've been going back and forth on this, I'm wondering how you would rank the top 4 for the rockets specifically?
I really don't have a top 4 for the Rockets because I think they should draft the best prospect period. My top prospects are Banchero 1A Ivey 1B Holmgren Smith I think the top 2 will have the most overall impact and can be the 1st or at worst 2nd option on a good NBA team. I think they also have the upside to be franchise type guys. I like both Holmgren and Smith, but I don't see them ever being franchise type guys, but I admit Holmgren has another level he could go to but size will always be an issue I think. I think all 4 can be good to great players on a contender.
I wanted to do this last draft. I wonder if Stone tried. I imagine it’s not easy to find a willing partner.
According to this list posting up is still a staple of most of the elite level big men in the NBA and even Lebron finds himself on the list. If its a weakness of a player you can believe opponents will exploit it. https://www.nba.com/stats/players/playtype-post-up/ Chet will do fine in a help role similar to Mobley. Might be the best help defender I've seen in a while. He wont excel vs physical players on the block in a 1v1. Just not enough sand in his pants and all the courage and 'fight" in the world wont help him when he's pinned by a guy who weighs 40-50 lbs more than him on a nightly basis - even PFs will be bigger than him. I think Banchero will offer more resolve vs these types of big men and situations just due to his stature and frame alone ... plus I think he is plenty athletic enough to switch all over the court. Im not convinced at all that what you see with Paolo defensively is it for him - if every other prospect is given the benefit of the doubt to improve on their weaknesses then Paolo should as well because if Paolo was an elite two way guy he'd be the consensus #1. Conversely Banchero allows you to do so many things on offense - way more than just spot up shooting and while I keep hearing about Chet and his handle Im not convinced - even less when you put an NBA defender in front of him. Paolo has been breaking ankles, displaying a level of footwork from the post and elbow offense, and a court vision that is just unheard of for players his age and size. As an initiator Banchero almost always makes the right play. His ability to pass out of the double and keep the offense moving is crazy especially when he's zipping balls cross court into the corners. Is Chet being doubled as much as Paolo? What happens when he does? If these guys are truly going to be game changers the double team will be a way of life. Paolo Ivey Chet Jabari Keegan
I love Tjarks because his analysis on NBA prospects has been pretty solid. Your post made me look at Smith's shot selection even more because a guy that's hitting like 42% from 3 shouldn't be shooting that poorly from inside the 3 point line. A couple of things that I noticed looking at some of Auburn's games this year: 1. Smith has a bad habit of shooting midrange fadeaways. On possessions where he actually squares up the defender and shoots, he's pretty solid there...almost Durant-esque. Where he gets into trouble is taking the ball, posting up, and takes a fadeaway. I think that's something that can be corrected in the NBA. He's too tall to be taking fadeaway 18 footers on defenders. 2. He needs to get stronger. I think this one isn't surprising since he's got a slender frame but, similar to how most of us want Jalen Green to work on his strength to finish around the basket, Smith will also need to get stronger to finish in the NBA. He has the footwork and length to get to the basket but players have been able to bump him off balance thereby altering his shot. Again, something that can be "corrected" or improved upon.
That should also tell you how much he scores from behind the arc despite being the number one option. When is the last time a Top 5 pick over 6'6 hit more three pointers in a season than Smith?
Used to be a Paolo guy. Then I was a Jabari man. Now I'm a Chet dude. Here's why: for our team, we need players who can make an impact without the ball. That's Chet. Plain and simple. He has a very positive influence without being a focal point and can make things happen in places where Paolo and Jabari just can't. They might be better 'prospects.' But Chet is the best fit for us right now. And down the road. My two cents
I'm okay with either Jabari or Chet but I would be slightly disappointed if Stone used our pick to find the "best fit" prospect over "best player available". Sure both things can be true of one player but right now we need as much talent as we can get, regardless of fit.
I agree with you here. I think we'll be luck to land a top 4 pick and if we had the 4th pick I'd be happy with whoever fell to us. I think chet might have the highest upside if he can reach his full potential as a shooter, playmaker as well, rather than just as a defender with a decent shot. but there's the weight, and his age too. I've been saying this in all of my conversations about the draft, I won't argue (much) about how anyone orders the top 4. I have my own preference, but I think they all would fit well with Jalen and are all sort of on the same tier as prospects.
he might've. who would you have targeted in a trade down? I think at the time I knew Suggs was on a lower tier than cade/mobley/green. I'm not sure I would've traded to a lower tier, but I would've considered going down to 3rd and taking mobley, but I think the Cavs had mobley higher than green and probably would've have made that move.
Durant also showed he could take people off the dribble and be more than a spot up shooter. I am not saying Holmgren cannot do those things eventually, but he has shown less than 1/3rd of Durant's overall offensive ability.
I didn’t want to trade down past Mobley, but I was high on Barnes. Definitely thought their was a lower tier after Cade, Green and Mobley. I did not have Barnes or Suggs in that top tier. anyway, I was hoping Cleveland wanted to move up to #2 but they were sitting pretty at 3. I would have been happy to pick up an asset and pick Green or Mobley at that point.
Yeah this is my thinking too. I think we’ve already seen the damage picking fit over BPA does to a rebuilding team like ours. that’s why I honestly think that Jalen Ivey should be at the top of our list. He’s probably the prospect in the draft most guaranteed to be a super star. He’s a much better prospect than Jalen Green, and while no one can guarantee fit, I don’t think you hesitate to take Ivey, especially if u have him measurably higher than the other bigs. And I say that knowing we need size desperately, but I think there are other ways to add size to the roster. It’s hard for me to feel comfortable picking any of those 3 bigs over Ivey. But I’m definitely not a scout.
well im not too worried about chet guarding post ups because of his length, even if he gets backed down all the way to the rim I think he can still defend the rim. I think if chet were heavier he would lose his ability to help as much as he does which is where a lot of his defensive impact comes from. either way I think chet will be a plus on defense in the nba, and Paolo and Ivey will be a plus on offense in the nba. the big question is how they all fair on the other side of the court. and that doesn't mean right now, I mean do they have the tools and the work ethic to get there in the next few years. I wouldn't say I'm giving anyone the benefit of the doubt. I have my doubts about all 4 of them lol. I just happen to believe in Jabari's ability to learn a basic dribble package as nba teams start chasing him off the line. its a concern but its not something I'm too worried about. especially given he's the youngest of the 4, I think he has time to add a skill or two. the thing I have my doubts about with jabari is his finishing at the rim. he's been pretty bad there and scouts say its due to a lack of vertical. I'm not sure he can overcome that just like I'm not sure if Paolo can defend wings in the nba. I doubt athletic improvements. maybe Paolo has greater lateral quickness than he had the opportunity to show at duke? I'm not ruling that out. I like your list. like I said in previous posts, I can't really argue with any order for the top 4.
I'm a Chet guy but not for those reasons. We're severely talent deprived, we need players that can make an impact either on or off ball. I don't think we need to consider fit at all when we have so few cornerstone pieces. If Ivey is the next Ja Morant I'd take him in a heartbeat. Fit shouldn't be a consideration even for teams that do have cornerstone pieces. Portland passed on Jordan because they "needed" a big man.
If we were lucky enough to get a top two pick and Portland lands at three or 4, I wonder if they'd be willing to trade that pick for immediate veteran help... Can't imagine they'd want another guard in Ivey when they have Dame and Simons...maybe they like Paolo, but seems like they'd prefer vets instead.
I think a lot of people would rather the best player available regardless of fit. and the top 4 all fit really well with Jalen anyway, which is the only fit that matters for those thinking of fit. I think this really comes down to who stone thinks will be the best nba player. I'm interested that you alluded to thinking that chet/jabari would be better fits, but banchero/ivey would be best players available. Is that your line of thinking? if so, why? I'm really on the fence with all 4. I see them all on the same tier as best player available, and I see them all as great fits with Jalen (maybe less with Ivey but I'm intrigued in the most athletic backcourt in the league). either way I look at it, I'd be happy with any of them.
