Carlos Correa to the Twins - 3 Years, $105 Million

I never said that. I just want the owner willing to optimize the **** out of a team that has the window, finances, and other core players in place to make it happen.

I thought it would have been a very good deal, with those terms, to do that… both from a window optimization and a long-term risk/future financial flexibility standpoint.

I understand ultimately why they didn’t want to change their offer… but it also raises some more questions regarding the Verlander deal in regards to sentiment vs. analytics.

 

Look. I honestly don’t know enough about baseball dynamics to understand how badly this affects the team. Are they still the AL west favorites. Did they drop. If they dropped what good is flexibility. To me when the heart, Springer, left and the way he left we hosed ourselves. Astros are going to regret their service time manipulation on him.

 

They’re still the favorites for the AL west, but not the overall favorite for the AL. They made the WS last year without Springer, who would have likely had the same injuries with us as he did with Toronto. And yes, he had more reasons to leave than stay, with scandal + STM among them (along with being form the northeast).

 

Astros projected for an 85.7% chance of winning their division. 9.6% chance of winning the World Series (2nd in AL, 4th in MLB). The projected difference between Correa and Pena/Diaz/Goodrum is about 3 wins (which would mean a projected record of 98-64 instead of 95-67).

Financially, the difference is Houston now has $35M more to potentially spend this season, with far more certainty about their 2023 and 2024 payroll flexibility. They also got a draft pick in the 70s in this years draft as compensation for losing Correa.

 

Makes me wonder two things…

Were the Astros just done with CC? Or, did the Astros feel like Boras/CC was not negotiating in good faith?

 

Well said. This is still a really good team, and I’m sure they’ll upgrade on the margins at the trade deadline. But letting a middle of the order bat with elite defense at a premium position (after Keuchel, Cole, Springer) go with no even moderately offsetting move hurts.

I get that Correa may only mean the difference between 15% odds and 12% odds of winning it all (making both of those numbers up), but those numbers are set to drop to near 0 in about 3 years.

 

The Astros weren’t interested in a 1 year deal or a 3 year deal with opt outs. They wanted him for 5 years at a fixed rate, or nothing…. A deal that Correa already rejected with his previous agency group.

It does seem that we’ll see more short-term early opt out deals being executed for players who want to test the market more frequently. Its risky in terms of injury, but the advantages include higher AAV’s based on higher revenues in years to come.

 

They will certainly need a bounce back year from Bregman, minimal age related declines from Altuve/Yuli, continued improvement from Tucker, and health with Brantley/Alvarez for all projections to hold true. I also wonder how the odds will change based on LMJ being out for the year and JV being on a pretty fixed regimen… but as it is, even if both were fully healthy, it would be a stretch to expect them to make every start.

I’m most confident in Garcia/Javier/Valdez carrying this team…. They do have a very good chance to resemble (albeit on a much smaller scale) the early 90’s Braves rotations.

 

Any downgrade puts pressure on the remaining stars. I agree they are wagering quite a bit on Bregman and Verlander bouncing back and Yuli/Brantley/Gurriel/Altuve not falling off an age-related cliff. But signing Correa would have been risking an awful lot on an injury prone player.

Fwiw losing McCullers would likely only mean a 1-2 win difference in the projections because of the Astros excellent starting pitching depth.

There is downside in this team for sure. But there’s also tremendous upside. Pena is a relative unknown and could be a rich man’s Willy Adames (which would be a 4+ win player). Tucker and Alvarez are young enough to take another step forward which would put them in MVP territory. Bregman could bounce back into that tier. Any of their young SP (Garcia, Urquidy, Framber, Whitley, Brown) could break out into a ToR SP. Their bullpen has the potential to be the best in the league.

 

Agreed with all… just would have liked the gold glove SS with all the experience/playoff success at a very risk-free short term deal that was not thought to have even been a possibility 3 months ago. Pena is going to adjust, but it may take some time. I’d expect lots of K’s early and every defensive miscue to be scrutinized. Hopefully the rest of the stars stay healthy/fresh enough early to withstand those 1-2 months.

 

Astros moved on. Never made a new offer. Pena is the right guy too move on with on minimum salary. 35.1 mil puts the Astros near or beyond the $230 mil mark and takes away flexibility too add payroll at the deadline.

 

I thought I created this thread?

 

Flexibility and risk mitigation, with even a 3 year deal, is understandable. However this is an owner that literally paid out (with insurance fees) over $60 million dollars for Verlander to play only one game… only to re-up him again for possibly $50 million more without any guarantee that he will still be in his prime/cy young stature.

it’s clear the relationship between Crane/JV is different, but this is not simply some organizational philosophy.

they essentially had a chance to franchise tag Correa, and they passed.

 

I liked the first JV deal more than the second. I Hate opt outs.

 

Astros and every other team can bid on Correa again when he enters free agency next year.
Twins is only a one year deal unless Correa gets injured.

 

Correa becomes a free agent next year.
If Astros want they can offer again if Peña doesn’t work.

 

Many teams passed on Correa.
Why?

 

If the replacement plan is Peña, I’m going to need somebody to explain why we were so averse to giving Correa an opt-out after 1 year. It makes us favorites for this year and just kicks the can on Peña a year.

 

But that the thing, the core has already changed.

The core group heading into our world series season has already exhausted all of their team control. Guys like Garcia,Tucker,Yordan,Framber etc. basically represent a new core and we chose to retain a few guys from the old core (Bregman,Altuve,McCullers). The window has already extended itself a few years beyond out original window because we replaced leaving free agents.

Once the farm starts to fail to replace guys then a rebuild will be necessary, but that was always the case.

 

The local media here in MN is getting pretty excited about getting Correa. The Twins have been known as a very cheap franchise so this was a pretty surprise move by them.

Twins also signed former Stro reliever Joe Smith too.