Rockets open to a new range of shooting: the ‘middies’

Almost all of Phoenix's midrange shooting comes from two players - Booker and CP3.

The Suns take 16.3 midrange shots per game with Booker taking 6.6 and CP3 takes 4.7.

Torrey Craig and Elfrid Payton each shoot a midrange shot once every 3 or so games. Do you really believe that's significant?

Also realize that while Phoenix does have the best record, they are not the most efficient offense in the league either. They are #4. Who's the most efficient? It's Utah who's 29th in midrange attempts. There's more to being the best team than just having an efficient offense.

You also seem to be confusing predictability with effectiveness. Was there a single person in the entire building who didn't know what Shaq was going to do? Nope. Could they stop it ? Nope. Same with Giannis. Do you think that Phoenix was surprised by what Giannis was doing in game 6 of the NBA finals? He took 25 shots - only three 3 pt attemps (1/3) and only 3 midrange (0/3). Where were the rest of the shots? At the rim. Phoenix wasn't surprised by Giannis scoring at the rim yet he still went for 50. Knowing what's coming and being able to stop it are two different things.

 

Over the course of an 82 game season you want to minimize the least efficient shots, but it's also important to be able to score from all areas of the floor so that you aren't too predictable/easy to guard especially in a 7 game series. I always wished they mixed in just a few higher percentage midrange shots when the threes weren't falling. Especially with Harden as it's an easier shot for him and easier for him to get in a rhythm.

 

So are you saying that taking more midrange would have somehow made Harden more efficient?

If you were the coach responsible for defending Harden, do you change anything if he shoots midrange?

He's a 40% midrange shooter in the best of years. That means that he's about 13 to 14 points less efficient on his midrange than he is on his normal shots in his worst playoffs. Wouldn't you gladly let him hoist up all the midrange shots that he wants? If I'm the opponent, I'd welcome him to shoot a shot at 40% efficiency rather than mid-50s.

Harden shooting midrange wouldn't open up anything because it wouldn't cause the opponent to change up anything. They'd welcome him shooting midrange.

Here's Harden's playoff efficiency in each year in Houston:

'20 - 63.6%
'19 - 56.7%
'18 - 54.8%
'17 - 58.6%
'16 - 55.5%
'15 - 62.0%
'14 - 51.9%
'13- 54.8%

So how is taking a shot that you shoot at around 40% going to help? Maybe it causes the opponent to change up their defense and thereby opening up other opportunities? Is that the idea?

If you're the opponent, would you change up anything if Harden suddenly starts shooting a shot that's 10 to 20 percent less efficient than his normal shots? Unless you believe that NBA teams are stupid then the answer is obviously that you don't change anything.

Just because the other team knows what you are going to do doesn't mean that they can stop it. Teams were well aware of the Rockets stategy but we were still able to generate a ton of open 3s. Unfortunately, we ran into better teams in most of those seasons. Our style of play is the very reason that were could hang with an all-time great team like the Warriors. We could always generate more open 3s than they could and that evened out the the fact that they shot the ball way better than we did.

 

Teams came up with crazy schemes like the Bucks defending the behind of Harden and packing the paint knowing he wasn't going to take the mid range. The heavy reliance and no flexibility also got us into situations like missing 24 3 pters in a row. Players also get more tired as the playoffs progress not having their legs as much which will drop three point efficiency in the late rounds. So many factors that shows that having the defenders knowing you have a viable mid range threat would open up.

I thought overall his 2015 playoff run was the best and partly due to having a more wide repotiore for shot making which included taking mid range shots.

 

Harden was never a good midrange shooter. He could also generate an open shot for himself any time he wanted using his variety of step back moves. Even in his worst playoffs, Harden was more efficient than he was from midrange in his best seasons.

Did you ever consider that if you're shooting poorly from behind the arc there's a good possibility that your mechanics are off and they'd be off on your midrange shots too?

The Harden Rockets were never easy to guard. No team took away our open shots as people like to imply. We still got a ton of open shots in every playoff. We just didn't hit enough of those open looks.

Take a look at the 2018 game 6. We missed 27 straight 3s and we shot 59.1% from the free throw line. We couldn't shoot at all that day. Do you believe that we would have all of a sudden been good from midrange? Were you aware that we got 30 open 3s that same game? Being predictable and being unable to get open shots wasn't the issue. The issue was going 4-30 on open 3s. We sucked at shooting that day.

 

If the team practiced mid range attempts the entire season yes it would have benefited them. Mid range shots don't require as much lower body strength as 3 pt shots and late playoff games, you want to take shots that are less tiring for your legs because you are already fatigued from the entire season and playoff run.

 

We never played Milwaukee in the playoffs. It was Utah that had Rubio play behind Harden in order to try and prevent his step back 3s. We also beat them 4-1 that series. Did you perceive that as a problem for us?

We did shoot terribly in game 6 vs GS in 2018. We also shot bad from the FT line too (59.1%). Do you believe that we should have tried to avoid free throws too? We got 30 open 3 point attempts that day and hit only 4. Getting open looks wasn't the issue. We sucked at pretty much all shooting that day. Do you believe that we would have suddenly been good from midrange when we couldn't hit any sort of shot beyond the restricted area?

Why would going to a shot that you only shoot at 40% (and only counts 2 points) open anything up? If you were the opposing coach do you change up anything if Harden decides to start shooting midrange? In that very game Harden had an efficiency of 50.5%. Why would him switching to a shot that he shoots at 40% efficiency cause the opponent to adjust to anything? Unless the opponent is bad at math, they'd gladly let him take all he wanted.

No team is going to change a defense that's been effective just because you did something different. They are only going to change if you're being efficient at something. Otherwise, just hoist up a shot or two from midcourt. That'll surprise them and force them to adjust!

 

So who are the teams that practice midrange all year and are efficient at them?

 

you took one thing i mentioned as a bonus just for you to see the possibilities and you jumped on it because you had no arguments....

in fact your analysis is arbitrary and my analysis dissected your arbitrariness with a surgical precision thats why you have chosen to skip it and not answer...

tank you i will take as a sign that i won

go back to my points and answer one by one if youre not a coward...show me the arbitrariness:

1 by taking midrange your offense becomes more efficient overall because its less predictable and harder to contain .....so midrange is efficient for most players because it improves overall efficiency

2 taking midrangers non stop you develop a weapon for the clucth

3 you develop weapon for the situations when all you need is scoreboard to keep moving

4 when youre tired or/and injured midranger is a lot easier and more efficient shot

5 STOP PRETENDING THERES A 3 POINT SHOT ALWAYS AVAILABLE....helooooooooooooo brain! where is you efficiency brain???!!!
SOMETIMES defenses overload at 3 point line and at the rim......WHAT DO YOU DO THEN?

5 JRUE holiday and yanis are sub-elite shooters and they won title by shooting midrange a lot in the crysis and during the game because it made them more dangerous versatile and less predictable... they couldnt have done it only by shooting layups

6 NEVER FORGET cp3 beat lebron in the playoffs playing with ONE HAND NOT EVEN SHOOTING 3 POINTERS AT ALL

 

I'd reply properly if I thought we could have a debate in good faith, but you clearly aren't even open to changing your mind so there is no point. Also aelliott just waxed you.

 

Respectfully, I don't think you remember the task at hand. A team that went 73-9 a year earlier added Kevin Durant. They were near the top of the league on defense. They were far and away #1 on offense. Best shooting team ever BEFORE KD. How do you beat that?

The answer is simply, you don't. Teams had to come up with strategies to try and no one even came close except us. We did this using the strategy that you dislike while the rest of the league used a strategy closer to what you are advocating for and got crushed.

0-27 looks bad but is a statistical anomaly that happened at the worst possible time. You can't ignore ALL the incredible success we had using the strategy and then deplore it after one terrible game. Against the best team ever. Without our 2nd best player. We win that series with CP.

 

If Harden who couldn’t get a clear 3pt shot off that game (Warriors were jumping and turning backs towards him and landing in his space) and he couldn’t make it to the rim … his mixing in some midrange would of opened up the Rockets offense.. and we wouldn’t have missed 27 3’s in a row!

 

Percentage wise, he was a better midrange shooter than a 3 point shooter. At a few select moments in a game here and there when you absolutely need a bucket, I would have liked to see him take like one or two. I'm not talking about an individual game, that game 7 without CP3 there was no way the Rockets were gonna beat that 4 headed monster.

But, Harden would have games where he was like 1/15 from 3 where I would have rather seen him go 1/12 with 3 midrange (higher percentage shots) mixed in. That's it.

EDIT: One thing I forgot to add which was a perfect example of this in practice - in the bubble playoffs against OKC, Harden had one game (I think game like 5 or something midway though the series) where he was struggling from 3. At some point in the game he had a post up where he did a turnaround quick short jumper which he made and got his rhythm. Of course he made his next 3 after that. People say it all the time, sometimes scorers just need to see the ball go in the basket, that's why free throws are important in that respect as well. Harden was not an elite midrange shooter but he was certainly good enough to warrant him taking them every now and then.

 

Math is math and it IS correct . However , these guys are young and are still developing . You want all the tools possible in your game . And it’s worth it to see what percentages you can hit .

also we are trying to lose . Also strategy and what the defense does plays a role . Teams have gotten better at 3 point defense because it’s so deadly and offenses sought to take advantage of it .

**** , fouls and officiating play a role too .

this has always been more complicated than 3>2 ... but 3>2 be true

 

dont forget injuries, nba players play through a lot of injuries to arms and legs all the time...hands, fingers can be also tired and injured....

physically, 3 pt shot is much more demanding than the middy and the more so when players are tired and injured and/or both and play tru it....

if your legs are tired and hands injured, and its a playoffs pressure game, you can forget about 3pt percentages and averages that are standard for you and expected according to dumbalytics....

also dont forget the PSYCHOLOGY.... many of players are born and raised with the midrange....it was a big part of their basketball routine from the early age....its in their blood and genes, in their instincts...it relaxes them and allows them to enter the state of the flow....and it messes with their brains when you deny it to them...

now imagine dr lucas preventing you from warming up on midrange because you arrived on houston rockets and what does it do to you and your shooting in general...

and the midrange is an essential part of the feedback loop of the nervous system's aiming mechanism...when you shoot the midrange its like probing the environment and the feedback you get is adjusting your aim and you are able to shoot with more precision all kinds of shots...

if instead you probing just layups and 3 pt distances of course it wont be so good and refined because your nervous system lacks nuanced information and feedback

 

A team with more arrows in it's quiver is much more drought resistent.

DD

 

It’s about predictability for me. Like I said, the Spurs playoff series showed how to beat a Harden led team. Sometimes you need to take what the defense is giving you.

 

3>2 actually becomes less effective the smaller the sample size. You can use coin flips as an example. The larger the sample size the closer the outcome will approach 50/50. But smaller the sample size, the higher chance you will not see a 50/50 split.
Now apply that to 3>2 in a NBA game situation. The smaller the sample size (let's say crunch time fourth quarter), the less effective 3>2 becomes and the more effective "the best available shot" becomes.

 

yes .

I said strategy is part of it . And what you described was logic based strategy .

if you need any amount of points , getting a look at the rim of a ft is also better .

It your situation if depends if player x is better at a 3 than a 2 . How good is each look . Is the 3 guarded more tightly or the 2 ?

In addition to clock and score those are factors that can be applied to the equation.

 

If someone is shooting 30% from 3 and 38% from the MidRange
If it a better shot really?

Watch some 80s Basketball . .. . look at all the mid range bricks that are being chucked
If you can hit the shot take it .. . but mostly alot of them look just as shitty as a shitty 3

Rocket River