https://www.si.com/nba/2022/03/16/n...cts-chet-holmgren-paolo-banchero-jabari-smith Holmgren has received quite a bit of hype nationally, and his impact on the Bulldogs’ success is undeniable, but opinions I’ve heard around the NBA vary more widely than one might assume from what you hear and read elsewhere. Holmgren has played well this season and is still trending toward a top-three selection: listed at 7'0”, 190 with a 7'6” wingspan, he’s a high-quality defensive prospect who projects best not at center, but as more of a roving, shot-blocking four-man, and preferably alongside a stronger, more physical big. That role will enable him to use his length around the rim and as a rebounder while limiting how much his lack of strength can be exposed. While opponents have had success attacking him in the post, his impact on the defensive end has been consistent and enhances the perception that Holmgren has a comfortable value floor in the pros. If you assume his defense translates meaningfully, then Holmgren can be pretty valuable even if he never expands his offensive repertoire much. Right now, he is a threat to finish lobs and has had success pushing the ball in transition, though he may not win open-court foot races in the NBA. He projects as a reliable jump shooter, but can be streaky: Holmgren is making 41% of attempts from distance, but has shot just 27% from deep in 12 games against Tier A opponents (as classified by KenPom). He’s highly efficient (70.4 TS%), but NBA execs have been watching closely to see how Holmgren deals with opponents that counter him with appreciable size and strength. He played poorly in Gonzaga’s two recent games against Saint Mary’s, which made a concerted effort to hit him early and more or less neutralized him on offense. Potential matchups against Memphis, UConn, Texas Tech or Duke, physical teams that can make him uncomfortable, would be analyzed closely. The NBA places much more stock in those settings: Holmgren can enhance his case as a top prospect with strong showings in those types of games, or raise more questions if he struggles.
At this point Holmgren durability is my only concern. With his length and agility he seems like a lock to be a game changing defensive presence. Also, even if his skills never translate to him being a dominant individual offensive force (which I too am not sold on), he should still give you all of the offensive benefits the one dimensional dunk and defend bigs give you while also stretching the floor which is an invaluable tandem skillset in the modern NBA. His floor seems really high in that regard. He will give you a ton of flexibility with what you do at the 4.
As if there was a choice, ha. Jabari or Chet and were in a good place for our future. I have no worries about Chet being another Kristaps. Chets going to make up for what most of you wanted in Mobley. A real unicorn. That said, its hard to pass on Jabari if you're number 1. If we drop in the lottery. Consiparcy theories and suicide watch alerts.
Can Chet be viable at small forward, because with his 3 point shooting and his defense, plus his cutting ability, I think that is where he can thrive even at his slender build. He reminds me a lot of Kevin Durant If he goes to center or power forward, he’s going by to have to add A LOT of weight, that may affect his style of play; or do some serious damage to his legs, like what happened to Yao Ming. But I am very intrigued by Chet at either 1 or 2.
It's Jeremy Woo. The same guy that reported Sharpe has been cleared for the 2022 NBA draft.... when he hasn't been.
IMO the issue isn't Chet's weight, but his lack of athleticism. He looks like a slightly more mobile Yao, but Yao had serious matchup problems against strong, athletic players with decent size (Boozer notably). Imagine Chet matching up against Giannis, Embiid, Durant, or Gobert. Would he be able to score reliably against any of them, and would he be able to defend Giannis, Embiid, or Durant? Jabari's skills seem more likely to translate even against NBA-level competition. It's more uncertain for Chet.
@YOLO This is exactly why I said on the first page that he is not universally viewed as a generational prospect. I’ve been reading stuff like this all year. Half of this board wants Jabari Smith as does more than half of Rockets Twitter. There is genuine concern about his frame. I can’t say it’s invalid concern because we really don’t know yet. I’m just willing to roll the dice.
In an ideal world we would draft a player that can defend Giannis, Durant, Embiid, etc. but, realistically, those players can/will go off against any defender right now. On the other side of the court, Chet might not be able to go shot for shot against Embiid, Jokic, Durant, etc but if he can provide SOME offense and create spacing with perimeter shooting that helps out the other players on the team. I'm high on both Smith and Holmgren but I don't think either one, in year one or two, will be able to defend and/or score on the elite big men of the league.
