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55% of Americans have shares in the stock market...

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout: Debate & Discussion' started by London'sBurning, Nov 18, 2020.

  1. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    I used to work at a fintech that worked on this premise. Interesting note...that industry generally aren’t insured by the FDIC or it’s equivalent...

    OPs proposal sounds like a hybrid between a sovereign wealth fund (think sweden) and Bush’s proposal to privatize social security. Social Security mostly makes its gains through TBonds and more people paying in. Privatizing it like a big 401k sounded high risk since I don’t think there was a department actively managing the funds.
     
  2. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    I think putting 10% - 20% of the fund into index funds makes sense. Certainly not all of it.
     
  3. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    Given the situation going on with Gamestop and how only a few million investors caused such a ruckus, I'm still inclined to support some legislation that's at least like this. You'd quickly see a properly regulated stock market if everyone was even just a little bit invested into the market and could collectively pull off what happened at Gamestop. And correction. Only 48% of Americans are invested in the stock market in some form. Not even 55%.
     
  4. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    It is terrible that retirements are all in stocks.

    DD
     
  5. geeimsobored

    geeimsobored Contributing Member

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    In Canada, their version of the Roth IRA (called the TFSA) is actually designed to fix this problem. In Canada, you can contribute the same amount as a Roth IRA ($6000) but the TFSA has no early withdrawal penalty. Its designed strictly as a means to get everyone to save and invest in the market. All of your capital gains within the TFSA are tax free like a Roth IRA but its not intended to be a retirement account. It's intended to be a savings vehicle to give advantageous tax treatment for average investors. Consequently, a much higher percentage of Canadians invests in the stock market because they can park their savings there (they also tend to save a lot more money there than Americans).

    At the same time, their capital gains tax is much higher than the US to offset this. So average investors get a tax free vehicle to invest while larger investors pay a lot more in capital gains tax than those in the US.
     
  6. fchowd0311

    fchowd0311 Contributing Member

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    And what counts as "being invested". Like if I download the Robinhood app and buy a single share of a company, am I now part of that 48%?
     
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  7. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    Eh if you read all the pages I elaborated starting at $100/month per American citizen up to 65 years of age totalling $78,000 over time. Roughly $400 billion in taxes per year pumped into the stock market as stimulus from which all Americans benefit including your homeless on the streets and Americans in the penal system.
     
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  8. Ziggy

    Ziggy QUEEN ANON

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    What's crazy is, I believe all that "ruckus" only resulted in those firms being down 10% on the year. Total value sounds high, but 10% we've all probably lost in a day at some point.
     
  9. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    I mean it was roughly 3 million users that frequented the reddit wallstreet section that caused this right? Imagine if 328 million Americans had that kind of influence. You'd see all the ways the stock market can be manipulated fixed right away so it would then become properly regulated. A properly regulated stock market means a less likelihood of criminal activity that requires a government bailout as past precedent has determined the stock market is too big to fail. Then that would mean the stock market is a closer reflection of the well being over the overall economy. And when the economy actually is doing well, everyone would benefit. When it doesn't, that's 328 million Americans who would then have a financial interest in actually holding our elected officials accountable instead of being drawn into stupid culture wars as a justification for government gridlock. All of our elected officials would actually have to put in work then instead of empty platitudes to feed to the general public.
     
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  10. tinman

    tinman Contributing Member
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    Ziggy likes this.
  11. Phillyrocket

    Phillyrocket Member

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    Yeah but those crazy Canucks also have socialized healthcare so obviously they know nothing that would improve upon Murica!
     
  12. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    Don't have AppleTV but Youtube recommended this and have been listening. I still like my idea even after a year. I actually forgot about it until this was in my recommended feed.
     
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  13. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    @London'sBurning, didn't see this thread the first time around. I like the idea. The potential for unintended consequences seems high, but I like it anyway because my socialist dream is to put the means of production into the hands of the workers not by expropriation but by stock ownership in some weird capitalist socialism.

    My first concern is that there will be millions of uneducated investors controlling money. I can see an industry built around liquidating 18 year olds. First in line would be colleges that award "financial aid" after your investment cupboard is bare. Then there could be banks that could issue consumer loans using your govt investment fund as collateral, or payday loans substituting liquidated investments for paychecks. Securitization vehicles that will pay you a big sum upfront to buy your future government investment cashflows, heavily discounted for the time-value of money and the risks inherent in future stock market returns plus a margin for profits. Maybe you can do enough financial education to protect the majority of the population, but there is going to still be a significant fraction of people who are going to get tricked and exploited.

    There could also be captive investor behavior used to manipulate the market, perhaps like the Gamestop action mentioned earlier. With many uneducated investors, a market participant who finds an effective lever to drive their investment decisions could irrationally pump up or punish stocks for an idiosyncratic benefit. Or, they could marshal proxies of uneducated shareholders to influence board elections (which happens now anyway). On the corporate side, traded companies might offer shares tailored for these sort of investors so that they don't have voting rights for the boards, which is probably as bad.

    Aside from bad actors, just the guarantee of government money flowing in would have distortive effects on the market. It'd probably create a bubble where the prices can't really be justified by the companies' underlying fundamentals, but those investment dollars have to go somewhere. We can at least expand the portfolio options beyond the stock market to the bond market and similar. You could perhaps have rules to allow the funds to be invested in real estate, private equity, or starting up your own business. That way, if the stock market doesn't justify investment, there are other places for the money to flow.
     
  14. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    I kinda pictured it more as hiring an ethical successful hedge fund manager that takes the pool of money that's keen on noticing bubbles precisely like Gamestop and having the financial ability to keep Wall Street honest lest they feel the wrath of approximately 328 million investor's money pooled together. And yes people can invest independently without a being a part of the pool but you'd think you'd need to be extremely successful to outpace whatever gains you'd get by remaining in the collective pool. Isn't that basically what rich people with millions of disposal income do? They just dump that extra few million into a hedge fund pool and let an expert make them passive income with a greater total sum of money in the hundreds of millions to invest with instead of their smaller amount. Plus this would afford even homeless and people in the penal system and young adults an expert in finance to manage their affairs while they're still getting on their feet and with proper consumer protection laws in place and enforced, that could help deter predatory bad faith actors. That's my optimistic take.

    If they got one of their own with the expertise to notice some malfeasance that our government appears incapable of managing and staying ahead of and is able to hit them hardest in their wallets, you'd think bad faith actors in Wall Street would be more honest.

    As far as guarantee of government money, what do you think all those bailouts were to the airline industry, auto industry, Wall Street's mismanagement of the housing market and the list goes on and it's all done under the pretense that these existing industries are too big to fail and thus need a guarantee of government money through tax dollars to continue existing. The same will be true of crypto should it ever go bust. It's already too big to fail. And this is done intentionally by bad faith actors in the market knowing that the government will assuredly cave and guarantee money while not even getting a slap on the wrist. Who pays for it? At least some portion of those bailouts are taken from the 52% of Americans' tax dollars who don't even have a dime invested into the stock market right? How is that not robbing from them when they're already likely low income?

    Why is taking 52% of Americans tax dollars with no investment in the stock market every time a big industry needs a bailout okay but when it's the other way around, people consider it unfeasible? I don't understand that personally.
     
  15. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    When I mentioned Sweden's sovereign wealth fund, it was actually Norway (they all look alike to me).
    https://www.ft.com/content/e10bfa3f-26ae-4ddf-96b1-f640ad30786e
     
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  16. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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  17. JuanValdez

    JuanValdez Contributing Member

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    Well, I guess there's two ways to go, either people can make their own decisions or Big Brother does it for you. If Big Brother does it for you, you're no more empowered than before. You may as well take a gubmint handout. Maybe it'd work but I'm not very interested. I'm much more interested in giving people their own investment vehicle where they do have agency to make their own choices and actually be an owner of sorts. But of course that comes with risks.

    Not trying to moralize at all. Just trying to think through what sort of unintended consequences there'd be in order to think of what counter-measures would be required to keep the whole idea from being a boondoggle. I said at the outset I liked the idea. Just don't go off half-cocked.

    That's wacist!
     
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  18. B-Bob

    B-Bob "94-year-old self-described dreamer"

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    The internet had to remind you about a good idea you had and posted on the BBS?
    I mean, it's possible. :D
     
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  19. London'sBurning

    London'sBurning Contributing Member

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    I mean pages fall off the D&D. :D I was mostly keeping consecutive posts going for awhile and it fell off to other topics of discussion that are a bit more important than my little thought experiment. I think it's a good idea but I'm in no position to see it passed in any form even as like a test experiment in a single state where if it ends up being a bad idea at least it's limited to that state instead of the entire nation. My little foot note in history. Random Rocket fan BBS poster ultimately suggests atrocious investment plan that ruins state finances for decades! :D

    I agree with Juan that people should be able to decide how they invest but I also think it'd be a good idea to have an ethical hedge fund manager handle it for people not as ambitious and just want to work their 9 to 5 or whatever work schedule and still be more comfortable through all stages of their life at least financially more than they currently are.

    One negative I could see is it might further exacerbate climate change which I post a lot of concern over. If say this really provides an enormous boon to the stock market and economy as it should and that really upticks manufacturing of fossil fuels (which we need right now anyways) and further increases consumer spending for people to more frequently replace their iPhone for instance, then that's just added waste to existing waste dumps that'll only fill up even faster in the U.S. that would only increase climate change. Not really lessen it. In that sense it could be a negative for the rest of the developed world. Still, it'd probably benefit more Americans than the current system is presently and you could probably curb consumer spending by encouraging better investment behavior over short term joy from purchasing a bunch of goods with an expiration date and rapid depreciation in value over time.
     
  20. Invisible Fan

    Invisible Fan Contributing Member

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    The initial concerns were justified and I was tempted to write some parallels to what happened in a reply (Russian oligarchs, broke municipalities mortgaging away their capital assets as well as this one through securitization,overall greasiness of stock creation/money makers/investment banks, and the growing stress of passive funds distorting the industry), but it'd be too much of a derail in an area I don't know deeply about.

    I saw it in a movie and it's frequently used in my biz.

    Those ****ing f****gn**s can bite me!
     

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