The worry is that he may not F'ing care. It comes down to how the Russian people respond. If they respond like the Trumpers, then I'm not so sure what will happen.
Russia's military is so much stronger than Ukraine's that a few bumps in the early going does not matter. This will be a wipeout.
I'm not convinced that's the case if Ukraine is well armed, going by my previous post. But it's academic at this point, unless Ukraine starts getting arms and makes a major offensive. It's like how many five year olds can you take on? If you're a trained MMA fighter, it's going to take hundreds to overwhelm you. If you're a typical broken down middle aged man, probably a dozen, max.
Well, if he wants a return to the Soviet Union, then he can have Soviet-style autarky and isolation too. All part of the same deal.
I totally agree. The only issue is having plausible deniability that NATO and the US are the ones operating them. I think Russia will blame the US regardless so it really doesn't matter, but if the operator on the other end is proven to be a NATO official, well... that means we are at war with Russia officially. What would be optimal would be for Drones to be flown in that are technically a neutral countries, and have the US coordinate and help operate deployment. But yes... Drones should be seen as the key here, and we should find ways to make sure the Ukrainians have one of the most effective Drone operations in modern warfare history.
I It agree with a lot of this. But I wanted to comment on the political will to defend against the expansionist plans of Putin. It doesn't have to be there at the moment. The commitment doesn't have to be all at once. It is possible to set up the no-fly zone and use our technology and military to help enforce it. I understand the possibility of that leading to escalation. But as that happens the political will for the escalation could rise as well. Sometimes leaders have to lead. Also important to remember that Putin will be facing the end of his nation and certainly the end of his regime should he escalate as well. He needs to see that we are willing to make him pay that price or he won't stop.
What I mean by convienience is that the claim is that we let Russia have Ukraine because we're scared of nuclear war. But if Russia attacks Estonia, we'd defend it "because NATO" despite the risk of nuclear war. And if Russia attacks Finland, we'd defend it despite it not being NATO and and the risk of nuclear war. What those show is that we're looking for justifications to not get involved in Ukraine, but they aren't actually the justifications. We are willing to risk nuclear war and we're willing to do it to defend non-NATO countries. Just not Ukraine but no one wants to say that. No one is suggesting anyone invade Russia - you just obliterate all their forces in the Ukraine. The US has the most powerful military in the world. Neither side has home field advantage. In 24 hours, the US could destroy all of Russia's ability to conduct war in the Ukraine, largely using air power, and much of that with cruise missiles and drone strikes. Disagree - every time Russia tends forces across the border, destroy them. But don't touch anything within their borders and publicly state that, giving them the opportunity to end the war anytime they choose. As far as Russia using non-nuclear forces against NATO countries, Russia has committed a substantial chunk of their resources to Ukraine - they don't have the capacity to wage a two front war. They are relying on not having to protect their other borders and taking Ukraine and then apparently already have their eyes set on continuing to Moldova. They can't afford to open additional fronts - either economically or militarily, and that would drain even more of Putin's support at home.
The source I quoted was NBC news, not Russian TV lol I don't get what you are doing here. First you say, "well racism happens everywhere" which to me sounds like you are saying it's no big deal. Then you suggest it might be propaganda. Ridiculous.
I had never thought about this angle, this is right out of the Russian disinformation playbook. They have history with dividing along racial lines in the U.S. and people still are very eager to feed in to this stuff. Not saying there are no incidents of this, but I can see how it can work as propaganda.
I would have disagreed with you a week ago based on my (then) opinion of Putin's overall professionalism, but seeing how Russia is bungling this war so far makes me think there was very little planning and their borders are probably relatively unguarded.
I think Russia is basically cutting its citizens off from Western sources on the internet. Social media is slowly going black and now youtube is being cut off. Not to mention the last vestiges of independent media are being shut down as we speak. I wonder how long it'll be before Weibo, Youku, and WeChat start setting up Russian versions to fill in the void. Russia is basically going to sell itself off to China as a result of this.
