So here's the thing. I don't know the answer. There are people saying it isn't worth the escalation if we enforce a no-fly zone and risk escalation with Nuke-empowered Russia. And it's a good point. But if you say that, then you are sacrificing Ukraine. When will be the time stand up to Putin? Not Ukraine but the next country he Invades? Or the one after that? If there's a point when you are willing to stop the Democracy crushing land grab, why not draw that line now? Why sacrifice Ukraine or the next nation before doing it? What is gained by doing that? Right now Ukraine is putting up a valiant resistance. Why capitalize right now? If we let Ukraine fall, do you think the next nation Russia Invades will put up a more inspiring defense? Ukraine can be a rallying point if folks have the fortitude. All of that said, I won't be happy to send troops to an escalating prolonged military conflict. Also, at the same time, it won't be more clear cut battle for democracy versus those willing to make war against democracy. It's a tough call.
Biden pretty much gave you the answer tonight. If Putin invades a NATO member then we will respond militarily. This is why NATO membership matters. At the moment there is no political will both in the US or in most of the rest of NATO to militarily intervene. Biden said that we will do everything short of militarily oppose Putin including going after oligarchs financially.
It helps when social media channels have blocked off Russian backed media so that the propaganda is one-sided. I bet you get a different take if you're a VK user. Imo, the propaganda is equally full of crap from both sides so who knows what the current situation is looking like but based on video footage I've seen, I get the feeling that Russia went soft in the first week and going forward, they're going to start taking the gloves off.
Putin is out to kill them by the masses. He's evil. It's not going to end good for Russia in the long run. I'd hate to be living in that country. The people of Russia will suffer because of Putin, even if they all come out unscathed by war on their soil. They will be waiting in lines for bread like the old days Putin cherishes.
In that case, the fear is not nuclear armaggedeon - it's just convenience and basically a way to justify appeasement. Do we really think the west doesn't intervene if Russia invades Finland and Sweden, since they aren't NATO members?
Are the two guys reporting on the stream channel "Speak the Truth" as informed as they appear to be? They seem to have some detailed maps and updates on troop advancements. I feel like I'm learning a lot. If not, who is the recommended watch...
This is a tough debate as the NPT and old Cold War feelings come back to play. You could say that cutting Russia off the economic system is essentially medieval siege of attrition. While that likely won't be enough to "save Ukraine" if this lasts for another three to six weeks, I don't know how Russia's people can tolerate their economy in ruins with growing rationing and bread lines ala the end days of the Soviet Union. So I think a mid term goal of Russian exhaustion can be achieved (you're cut off until you return everything back... Maybe even Crimea if the situation allows it), it's just that it's not popular nor romantic to freedom lovers. Voters just aren't wired for that kind of victory and demand a heroes journey even if they ultimately lose in the long run. This also raises chances of a Pearl Harbor situation but I don't think Putin is that desperate yet. Otoh, there are definitely long term implications if the NPT becomes more of a sucker bait, like all despots have declared in the past, but if we enforce a no fly zone along with the economic siege, I think Russia's desperation to end the conflict will cause an incident where people from either NATO and/or Russia dies. Even if neither side reacts, it becomes a propaganda win for both sides that want to continue the war because it can easily confirm to Russians consuming state media that Ukraine is a proxy to larger Western interests on the Russian Homeland. For us, it reaffirms "Putin's insanity for shirking international law". Ukraine has to hold out as much as they possibly can. I think a victory for them would be to last enough to the point where Russia pulls back and can't protest against the West rebuilding Ukraine. This is after all of their dead and ruined cities because of politics beyond their control... Not because it's nice nor fair but because the West wants gas to decouple from relying entirely on Russia.
It's both. People are always willing to "sacrifice" others, especially those you don't resonate with or are less familiar with, for noble causes. When the fate is upon oneself, he/she will weigh on options and compare pros and cons carefully. As in casino, normally you don't play a game you cannot afford to lose (of course there are nuts and addicted ones). A nuclear Armageddon is a game nobody can afford to lose, even if there is only a tiny chance like 0.1%. That's also why hotline was established during cold war, to prevent misfiring. That's also why US wanted a direct line of communication once Putin has threatened with the nuke readiness. As FB mentioned earlier, are we sacrificing Ukraine now? I don't think it's a straightforward button click of save or sacrifice. It's been a long process. With NATO expanding and Russia came back to life with energy export, those new NATO members of formal Soviet countries were at very risky spot, not sacrificed but risked to test the other side, just like any proxy war. The world is not leaving Ukraine on its own - that would be sacrificing. Instead, the West is showing solidarity with an exciting and never seen fashion to press and marginalize Putin, and pump resources into Ukraine. That's great support. But to sacrifice a great number of US and NATO soldiers to fight a long lasting war with Russia, I don't think any leader is ready for that. Fighting a country with or without nukes makes a mushroom size of difference. That's why every single country is going after nukes now. As a result, maybe we finally achieve world peace? One can only hope.
It's not as black and white as good vs evil. Russia for a long time has warned that Ukraine entering NATO was an unacceptable security risk. The US govt still encouraged Ukraine to pursue NATO ambitions and call Putin's bluff, while at the same time having no intentions of backing them up with troops. Ukraine certainly has the right to try joining NATO but they also bear the consequences of their actions. Ukraine unfortunately let themselves be a pawn in our foreign policy games and their people are going to suffer and to a lesser extent, the Russian people. Whether you feel an invasion was warranted or not is besides the point because that isn't going to change how Russia feels about having NATO bases along their border in Ukraine. Hopefully they can work out a compromise and end the fighting soon.
The "security risk" of NATO being in Ukraine seems like a moot point with modern weapon systems and nuclear warheads. This is also a massive economic grab. Estonia and Lativa are NATO members and on the border with Russia. The Russians didn't invade them before they became members of NATO. A big part of having Ukraine is controlling the oil and gas flow into Western Europe, ports in the Black Sea, and Ukraine is also the biggest supplier of wheat for Europe. The idea that having NATO in Ukraine is this awful security threat seems like a joke when our Ohio class nuclear subs can pop up anywhere and their missiles have a range of 7,000 miles. The missiles also reach a top speed of over 18,000 MPH. For reference, if we parked a nuclear sub off the coast of London it is only about 1,500 miles to Moscow and the missile from the coast near London would hit Moscow in maybe 7 minutes or so. One sub can carry 24 Trident II missiles that each have up to 12 warheads per missile. Move the sub to around Copenhagen.... flight time is down to 4 minutes to Moscow. Move the sub into the Baltic near Estonia... 1 minute and change flight time to Moscow. The security threat is 24 hours a day 7 days a week. We aren't invading a major nuclear power with ground troops.
I have zero words to describe the bravery and Valor of Ukrainian people. Their resistance to barbaric invasion of their country is incredible
So it sucks is that it seems like Ukraine is going to be sacrificed. What sucks even more is that people have a bit more empathy now than maybe they did 60 years ago, because of social media and instantaneous videos being posted. People are more aware of the situation. If you're drawing battle lines politically, then I guess you have to sacrifice Ukraine. What you need to do though is say screw the sanctions for the next few weeks and impose them for the next few decades. Make sure Russia loses all of its dominance in that way and don't let up the sanctions until they come crawling back to the table. Treat them like North Korea. If they get desperate, the rest of the world will handle it at that point. That is the only way to punt this ball down the field in my opinion. If you're not going to do anything militarily, you have to weaken them down to famine economically. While it sucks, it's the only way I see to punish them for this. Yes, the people of Russia will hurt. But this will give rise to real world scenarios, such as more of a reliance on cryptocurrency. Smart Russians will be okay. Possibly. The problem with that is that this creates a whole bunch of new real world problems. It also would benefit many savvy investment people across the rest of the world too. As ruthless as these videos are looking, America and all the other NATO countries need to be diplomatically ruthless, if they want to have some way to save the world. I know that sounds dramatic, but anyone wanting to let you sanctions up over the short term is delusional in my opinion. Opinion. Putin will just come back harder the next time..
I don't know what implications that has, but anything associated with the Kremlin going under is good at this point. Good riddance. And about the video in the post above yours, that is amazing. That's like a modern day tiananmen square.
