As I mentioned above, my favorite draft scenario is picking AJ Griffin and Tari Eason. While I think Banchero is the better talent, Griffin is right there and balances out the roster better. And while I agree we do not know if Green or Sengun are franchise talents, they are who we have (as much as I wanted Mobley). KPJ/Nix Green/Christopher Griffin/Tate Eason/Martin Sengun/Garuba I'd put that squad up against the pre CP3 suns. Bring on a max free agent (or 2) and we'd be cookin'.
I think a worst case scenario of Griffin and Kessler wouldn't be all that bad. If we could nab Scoot or Wendy next year, that would round out the team pretty nicely.
Right there with you on AJG If we're on the clock at #3 pick, with Chet & Jabari off the board, what would you do? I'm pretty sure I'm taking AJG as of now ... but still not all the way sold yet Honestly we cannot really go wrong in the top 5 this year, much like last year I've hardly watched any LSU this season, but have seen Eason steadily rising up the boards He's a fringe late-lotto pick in some corners Please tell me more about why you like his game, strengths, weaknesses, comps ... Why do you like his fit on this team? Do I need a new prospect deep dive on Eason?
Re: Griffin, it's all about the medicals. If they look ok then I think that, overall, Banchero and Jabari are the only prospects I'd put ahead of him. I'm lower than most on Chet and higher than many on Paolo so grain of salt. With Eason, I see a guy similar to Patrick Williams or Scottie Barnes. 6'8" or 6'9" with a 7'+ wingspan at 215 lbs that moves like a smaller man. Has the agility to defend on the perimeter but enough sand to bang down low and crash the boards. He is precisely who I think Sengun needs to compensate for his lack of length and athleticism. I'm hoping his age (older sophomore) pushes him down but I think he'll be gone by the Brooklyn pick. I'd trade up for him if the Rockets don't get one of the big 3. He and Griffin would be a nasty forward combo.
2022 NBA Mock Draft 5.0: Chet Holmgren at No. 1; AJ Griffin in top 5; questions abound with this year’s class 1. Detroit Pistons Chet Holmgren | 7-1 center | 19 years old, freshman | Gonzaga Chet Holmgren slides up to No. 1, as there just isn’t anyone playing better than him in the entirety of college basketball right now. His 20-point, 17-rebound, six-assist, five-block game where he also made two 3s was the best game I’ve seen a prospect play in college basketball this season. Somehow, the production didn’t even account for his overall impact on the game. He completely shut down BYU on the interior defensively, as Gonzaga held the Cougars to 57 points on 82 possessions. The crazy thing is, that dominance is basically commonplace for Holmgren at this point. He’s averaging 16.1 points, 10 rebounds, 2.8 blocks, two assists and two made 3s over his last 12 games, all while shooting 65.1 percent from the field and 55 percent from 3. That’s why he skies above Jabari Smith Jr. to the No. 1 spot here, the first time I’ve had Holmgren at No. 1 throughout the process. It’s becoming more and more difficult to come to any conclusion other than Holmgren having the most two-way upside in this class. He is shooting the ball at an elite level from 3, particularly as a trailer. He’s an elite rim protector. He can grab and go and make high-level passing reads. He’s not Evan Mobley on the perimeter, but he’s smart with his angles and moves well enough to get by away from the basket. He can play with another big, something that will be important early in his NBA career with his lack of bulk. He’s also known as an elite competitor and a strong character player. Essentially, the only worry here is his frame, as Holmgren is about 20-25 pounds skinnier than even Mobley was last year. But his upside is just tremendous, and he’s worth taking at No. 1. 2. Orlando Magic Jabari Smith Jr. | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Auburn Smith drops a spot here, but I’m still a believer in him being a terrific, high-upside forward. There are few better 6-foot-10-plus shooters to have entered the NBA over the last decade. His percentages going back to high school are terrific, his marks so far at Auburn are great, and his mechanics are pristine. Smith has hit 40 percent from 3 so far at 18 years old and is averaging 15 points per game for one of the top teams in college hoops. On top of that, he’s a really sharp team defender with good lateral quickness who has no issues defending in space or rotating into the right spots as an impactful defender. Having said that, I do wonder if we might be taping over some of his flaws a bit in a way that we didn’t early in the season with Holmgren. Announcers constantly ask Smith to create and try to get his own shot more and to attack the basket more. I kind of think that, at least in the half court, he’s just not really capable of that yet as a ballhandler. He’s good at getting to his stepback on a one- or two-dribble move that is translatable given his high release point, but for the most part, he’s not breaking down defenders on an island, either. He’s a terrific, unselfish player who doesn’t force the issue, but he hasn’t made a ton of consistent, awesome passing reads yet this season. So while I’m definitely a believer that all of this will come, it’s worth noting that Smith isn’t a finished package. He’ll be able to step into the NBA early because of his shooting and defense, but it might take some time for him to reach stardom — if the ballhandling improvement comes. 3. Houston Rockets Jaden Ivey | 6-4 guard | 20 years old | Purdue Jaden Ivey is the most electrifying man in college basketball entertainment this season, a one-man fast break waiting to happen with explosive speed who is constantly attacking downhill. Even in Purdue’s big-man, post-up offense, Ivey is still the guy who stirs the drink. He found that next gear in his game around mid-January and hasn’t turned it off since. He’s averaging 20 points, 4.5 rebounds and three assists since Jan. 17 and has seemingly made a ton of big plays late in games. Scouts are enamored with Ivey’s athleticism and ability to make things happen on the court, believing that it’ll play up even further once he gets out of Purdue’s drag-it-out half-court offense that always has a man waiting at the rim as a help defender on his drives due to the presence of Edey and Trevion Williams. Ivey does have some work to do in terms of skill. There will be an adjustment period for him operating out of ball screens in the NBA in terms of making the reads and attacking. Defensively, he could stand to improve at the point of attack and out of ball screens. His feel for scoring versus distributing is something that continues to need calibration, and his jumper could stand to just be a touch more consistent. But all of this is fixable. What isn’t fixable are Ivey’s immense tools at the lead guard spot, where he’ll immediately enter the NBA as one of its best athletes. These guys get drafted very high, and he’s one of four guys I would say still have a genuine case to go No. 1 overall (not accounting for Sharpe). 4. Oklahoma City Thunder Paolo Banchero | 6-10 forward | 19 years old, freshman | Duke Paolo Banchero and Smith are interesting contrast points, as they both figure to primarily play as 6-foot-10 fours in the NBA (even if Banchero could eventually prove he can slide to the five for some small-ball minutes). Banchero is the more impressive shot creator, a genuine mismatch player in the mid-post and on the block who can use his combination of strength and skill to get to his spot and finish. Smith doesn’t really have that ability, and it’s why Banchero has been a bit more consistent as a scorer throughout the course of the season, averaging 17 points per game. That ability to collapse the defense at a better rate also leads to more strong passing reads. Indeed, Banchero’s just generally more productive on the collegiate level and goes through stretches where he’s unguardable for five minutes. However, when Smith isn’t scoring, he impacts the game in a multitude of other ways, particularly on defense. When Banchero isn’t scoring, there are times where he can kind of get invisible in every aspect of the game, with the second half of Duke’s loss to Virginia a prime example of this. Because Smith is a constant 3-point threat, teams really have to stretch out their defense to guard him. Banchero is more hesitant from distance, which gives defenses a bit more time to recover. The last seven games have actually showcased some of the questions teams have about Banchero’s efficiency as a scorer. He’s averaging 14.9 points on 14.9 shots over that time, showing the relative difficulty of the shots he attempts. Because his jumper isn’t awesome yet, his good games can end up looking a bit less impressive in the box score than they are while watching in real time. Still, being able to create a shot with legitimate skill is one of the more important traits a player can possess when it comes to projecting All-Star outcomes. 5. Indiana Pacers AJ Griffin | 6-6 forward | 18 years old | Duke The next three guys here would be a toss-up in terms of being next up if Sharpe does not enter the proceedings. They’re all very different. After having talked to scouts around the league, it’s clear there is a lot of steam gaining around AJ Griffin as a player worth investing in. He struggled early this season as he recovered from a knee injury (teams will be very interested to look at his medicals after having missed quite a bit of time over the last few years), but he has emerged in the ACC as a terrific player. He’s 6-foot-6 with long arms, shoots at a high level from 3 and is efficient in terms of shot selection. His athleticism is elite, and he has the kind of size and strength combination that teams look for defensively. As opposed to someone like Johnny Davis or Ochai Agbaji, both of whom profile best as defending wings well, Griffin is big enough to slide up the positional spectrum. He can play off the ball, and he can create his own shot on the ball. In ACC play, Griffin has emerged into Duke’s second-best offensive option, averaging 12 points and four rebounds while shooting 50 percent from both the field and from 3. There will be some development required here, much like there was with someone like Jaylen Brown, but Griffin has the kind of upside that isn’t in large supply in this draft class. 6. Sacramento Kings Keegan Murray | 6-8 forward | 21 years old | Iowa Keegan Murray has been among the most productive players in the country. His 23.3 points per game ranks third nationally, and his efficiency metrics are off the charts. His combination of coordination in the open court, strength, size and skill has proved to be very difficult for opposing teams to overcome. He just kind of overwhelms teams, especially out on the break. Murray grab-and-go opportunities have become a thing of beauty this year for Iowa, and they’re undeniably the highlights of his season. On top of that, he’s proven to be a pretty good 3-point shooter at around 37 percent. He finishes above the rim, has a good in-between game and makes defensive action plays. To me, there’s a lot of Tobias Harris in what Murray does, and I mean that in a good way. Defensively, scouts do worry about what to do with him in terms of versatility. He’s a bit too slow-footed to defend ones and twos consistently but not quite strong enough to deal with fives. But he knows what he’s doing in a team construct and should, at least, be able to create transition opportunities with action plays. I’d expect Murray to hear his name called in the No. 5 to 12 region on draft night.
Spoiler 7. San Antonio Spurs Johnny Davis | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Wisconsin Every time I bring up Johnny Davis’ name with scouts, the consistent theme seems to be this: “We’d love to have him on our team as a mid-to-late lottery guy, but we aren’t super excited about taking him in the top five.” Davis has been one of the most productive players in the country, carrying a relatively undertalented Wisconsin team toward the top of the Big Ten. He’s still among the favorites for national player of the year. He’s essentially a primary scoring guard averaging 20 points and eight rebounds in the best league in the country, creating shots with craft from all three levels. The two places teams have raised some concerns are with his jumper and his overall defensive versatility. Davis is hitting just 32 percent from 3 in Big Ten play after having been basically an entirely hesitant 3-point shooter last season. And while Davis is a plus defender at the college level against ones, twos and threes, there is some concern about whether that will translate at a genuine plus level in the NBA, because he’s probably going to come in at around 6-foot-4 1/2 with average length and non-elite NBA athleticism. His effort level will always allow him to play a role on that end, but it’s hard to be a great wing defender and not merely just a good one without elite measurements. 8. Portland Trail Blazers (via NOP) Jalen Duren | 6-11 center | 18 years old, freshman | Memphis The flashes keep coming for Jalen Duren, particularly as Memphis has gone on a six-game winning streak. He’s played in the last four of those and has been in double-figures in each. The Tigers are finally figuring out how to use him in space, in transition and out of ball screens occasionally. He’s made a couple of jumpers. It also helps that he’s a freak-show athlete in terms of power/explosiveness with a 7-foot-6 wingspan. Essentially, Duren looks like an NBA player on the court right now, and he blocks a ton of shots to showcase his long-term potential as a drop-coverage defender. He’ll likely hear his name somewhere in the No. 5 to No. 14 range on draft day, even though his skill level and overall comfort in space needs to keep taking strides over the next year. 9. Portland Trail Blazers Bennedict Mathurin | 6-6 wing | 19 years old, sophomore | Arizona Bennedict Mathurin is the prototypical floor-spacing wing who can attack closeouts and score off floaters and out in transition. He has taken a leap this season into a larger role under new coach Tommy Lloyd, averaging 17 points, six rebounds and two assists while shooting 47 percent from the field and 37 percent from 3. This comes one year after he shot 42 percent from 3 but was largely a catch-and-shoot gunner only, as opposed to having expanded his overall offensive game now. Mathurin is the kind of scorer who should find success in the NBA and shouldn’t have too many problems athletically on defense. But he does need to improve his engagement and overall willingness to battle on that end. He’s not really a “3-and-D” guy right now more than a “3-and-transition-offense” guy. He has potential to be an impact player on defense if he wants to be. But it’ll take real effort and consistency that he doesn’t always show. 10. New York Knicks TyTy Washington | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky TyTy Washington is in such a fascinating position. In the two-month period from Nov. 16 to Jan. 15, there might not have been a better shot-creating freshman guard in the country. During that time, he displayed everything that had scouts excited, averaging 15.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists while shooting 54 percent from the field, 43.4 percent from 3 and 83.4 percent from the line. He scored from all three levels at an exceptionally efficient level and even showcased a ton of passing ability in moments where he had to take over the lead responsibilities when Sahvir Wheeler was hurt. But he’s gotten hurt a couple of times (in both the Auburn and Florida games), and it seems like he’s struggling to get back to his best level. The key with Washington is that he processes basketball at such a high level, can shoot and can really pass. Some teams are worried about his athleticism, and in the biggest moments against the best teams, he’s been hit or miss. But there is a lot to like here about Washington’s game and his ability to translate to a lot of different situations as a scoring guard who can also facilitate next to a terrific bigger initiator. 11. Washington Wizards Dyson Daniels | 6-6 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite Dyson Daniels has emerged as the top G League Ignite prospect for most evaluators. The numbers aren’t elite, but Daniels has a skill package that figures to translate really well toward playing as a useful rotational player early in his career. He processes the game really well and makes high-level passing reads. He’s completely unselfish, almost to a fault at times as the chaos in the G League around him unfolds. On top of that, he has a case as the best defensive guard in the draft class, a 6-foot-6 player who can guard one through three across the perimeter, get through screens with ease and fly around in rotation to blow up actions. He’s going to have to prove he can shoot to reach his ceiling, but Daniels has the high level of basketball IQ that has translated well in recent years in the NBA. 12. Memphis Grizzlies (via LAL) Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 wing | 21 years old | Kansas Ochai Agbaji is one of the surest bets in this draft class to become a good role player. He’s 6-foot-5 and is an elite catch-and-shoot player, having hit 43.5 percent from 3 on nearly seven attempts per game this year. He’s also an extremely efficient scorer in transition and has gotten much more comfortable putting the ball on the deck and handling the ball when he has to. Defensively, he’s tough, strong and physical for a wing; he just doesn’t necessarily have elite-level measurements that profile toward him being a genuine plus defender in the NBA. He’ll hold his own and won’t make mistakes. He’s closer to being a 3-and-D guy than Mathurin, but Mathurin is younger and a bit more comfortable handling the ball. Still, the pitch here is easy, especially in a draft class with this many questions: He’s a 20-points-per-game scorer for an elite team, and he defends and hits 40 percent from 3. 13. Atlanta Hawks Kendall Brown | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Baylor This is where things get a bit wild. Kendall Brown is a wild card. Some teams absolutely love his athleticism and see him as an interesting two-way potential wing. He’s an extremely explosive leaper who finishes everything above the rim. He’s shooting 62 percent from the field on 10 points per game, largely on cuts and out in transition. He’s a smart passer who has made some really good reads this season. Defensively, he has very flexible, fluid hips that allow him to slide and defend one through four with relative ease. Baylor gets aggressive with him in ball-screen coverages, in large part because he’s capable of blowing up actions. But other scouts are not particularly big fans. Those scouts see him as more of a late first-round flier because he’s so far away offensively. He doesn’t attack often at all in the half court because his handle isn’t strong enough. His jumper isn’t all that confident, as he takes about one 3-pointer per game and makes them at just a 32 percent clip. He gets invisible out there a bit too often. Anywhere from late lottery to end of the first round seems like the range. I’m going higher, but as you’ll see, this is where the range starts to get wide on prospects. 14. Charlotte Hornets Tari Eason | 6-8 forward | 20 years old | LSU This is another bet on my part. Tari Eason is seen by scouts anywhere from late lottery to end of the first round at this point. He’s one of the better defensive players in college basketball, a switchable, athletic four at 6-foot-8 with the strength to slide with perimeter players and hold his own against bigs. He transitions defense to offense on the break at a really high level and is productive in large part because of that. Overall this year, he’s averaging 17 points and seven rebounds while shooting better than 50 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3. Most importantly, he’s coming on at the right time now that Will Wade has put him into the starting lineup. He’s averaging 18 points, three steals, a block and six rebounds, and he’s getting to the line seven times per game over his last nine games. He looks like an unstoppable force at times at the collegiate level. Still, scouts are a bit worried about his jumper, which has some touch but is a bit catapult-like with a low release point. On top of that, he’s more of an effort player than a skill one as a passer or half-court ballhandler. He’s not a shot creator; he’s more of a productive power player. But he’s extremely strong and should be able to play that game as long as he can knock down a spot 3.
Spoiler 15. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC) Mark Williams | 7-0 center | 20 years old | Duke Mark Williams has turned into one of the best defensive players in the class, an elite rim protector with elite measurements at 7-foot and extremely long arms. It’s easy to imagine him as a starting center, long term, with further development, playing him in drop coverage and allowing him to use that length at the basket. He blocks three shots per game and generally shuts down the interior. On top of that, Williams has been about as efficient as you could hope to find out of pick-and-rolls, out in transition and in the dunker spot. He’s averaging 10 points while shooting 71 percent from the field, with most of his shots being of the dunk variety. He’s limited but useful, and his game is translatable across the board. Williams just continues to do something many in this class have not: He produces on both ends and looks good across the board in terms of athleticism, length, tools, scoring, rim protection and hands. 16. Houston Rockets (via BKN) MarJon Beauchamp | 6-6 wing | 21 years old | G League Ignite MarJon Beauchamp is another one of those guys about whom scouts will say something along the lines of, “We’d love to take him near the end of the first round.” Beauchamp has legit wing size, length and athleticism and plays with a very professional demeanor that has impressed scouts. His attitude is strong, and he plays defense consistently. His effort level on the offensive glass and as a cutter is terrific. There’s very rarely a moment where he doesn’t seem totally engaged, and scouts love his story of continued improvement. He’s put in a lot of work over the last year since he was at Yakima Valley College in Washington. But, he also has made just 27 percent of his 3-point shots and doesn’t really have a ton of ballhandling ability. Teams wonder to an extent what they’ll be able to do with him offensively. But he’s averaged 15.4 points per game largely doing dirty work type stuff in the G League, so the hope is he can translate that and hard-working defense to the NBA while he works through his skill level. 17. Minnesota Timberwolves Patrick Baldwin Jr. | 6-9 forward | 19 years old | Milwaukee Forgive me for being a broken record, but this is another pure wild card. Patrick Baldwin Jr. is all over the map when you talk to scouts. Some are willing to entirely overlook what has been an unmitigated disaster of a freshman season at Milwaukee and taking him around the end of the lottery. Others are not. Right now, Baldwin is averaging 12 points and six rebounds while shooting 34 percent from the field and 26 percent from 3 in the Horizon League. That is bad. But a lot of it can be chalked up to circumstance, if you want to make that case. He’s a non-shot creator who ends up having to do too much on offense far too regularly. He’d be much better off at a place like Duke where he could have shots created for him and could use those pristine shooting mechanics to hit open looks. Indeed, it’s not an exaggeration to say he has not gotten many clean opportunities this season. Per Synergy, Baldwin has taken just seven uncontested 3-pointers this season in 11 games, an impossibly low number that exemplifies how disastrous the team’s guards have been. The team has a bottom-20 offense in the country, a number that is bad for a mid-major team with a five-star, McDonald’s All-American forward who should theoretically be able to shoot the lights out. Scouts also have been unimpressed with his overall effort level. It’s not an exaggeration to say Baldwin would have one of the worst profiles in terms of production for competition level of any player selected in the first round in the last decade. But there are plenty of scouts who are still interested and see the same guy who was a consensus top-five recruit in the country. I’ll be completely honest: I have no idea what direction this will go. 18. Denver Nuggets Walker Kessler | 7-1 center | 20 years old | Auburn Walker Kessler is one of the few players across college basketball who has taken an opportunity and run with it to the point that he has become a genuine NBA prospect. If I had a vote, Kessler would be my SEC Player of the Year so far. With all due respect to Smith, Eason, Oscar Tshiebwe, Iverson Molinar, Colin Castleton and the others who have really stood out in that league this season, Kessler is the most impactful player on what is clearly the best team in the league. His defense is that vital, as he’d be my pick for national defensive player of the year at this point, as well. Since Dec. 14, Kessler is averaging 14 points, nine rebounds and a staggering 5.4 blocks per game while shooting 70 percent from the field and having made six 3s. The crazy thing is, I think the five blocks actually undervalue him on defense. Teams don’t try to drive inside on Kessler to finish with their guards all that often anymore, knowing the big man is there waiting to send it back. He has two triple-doubles with blocks during that span, too. NBA teams can expect a big man who is elite already in drop-coverage settings, who has good hands and has some potential to play on the perimeter offensively in dribble-handoffs and in playmaking situations. Scouts who have been down to Auburn regularly to check in on Smith have noticed. Kessler’s range is a bit wider as a true big man, but it’s getting harder to ignore his actual production in a sea of players who haven’t been all that productive. 19. San Antonio Spurs (via BOS) Jeremy Sochan | 6-9 forward | 18 years old | Baylor Jeremy Sochan is one of the tougher players to project in the class. Some scouts really like his ability to create and think he has real translatability to the sets that NBA teams will ask him to operate in. Baylor has him come off pindowns regularly, where he uses his length and athletic fluidity at 6-foot-9 to attack and get opponents off balance once he gets that extra little step. He’s also pretty good on defense, with versatility and the capability to guard multiple different player types. Having said that, Sochan’s skill level is raw right now, and his production matches. Even since the calendar has turned and he’s gotten a bigger role, he’s still only averaging about eight points and six rebounds while shooting 54 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3. The jumper looks like it has potential because of his touch, but it’s still not all that consistent in terms of mechanics. Basically, Sochan is a big wing project, but one who teams think is worth investing in long term. He’s almost more of a pre-draft candidate than a typical pick. But he has enough upside to potentially be worth it. 20. San Antonio Spurs (via TOR) Jaden Hardy | 6-4 guard | 19 years old | G League Ignite Jaden Hardy has been kind of a mess in the G League. His overall numbers are pretty iffy. In 19 games played, he’s averaging less than 19 points (in a league known for gaudy scoring totals) while shooting about 36 percent from the field and 27 percent from 3. He takes a ton of terrible-looking shots per game and has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio as a smaller combo guard. Oh, and you can forget about him playing defense at a consistent level. All of the warning signs here are bad. But then, he throws up some flashes like his 31-point, nine-assist game against Capital City, and you want to jump back in and say he can be an effective source of offense in the NBA. At the end of the day, Hardy has a lot of talent but needs to adjust his mindset toward more of a style conducive to winning basketball. The shot selection, turnovers and defense will drive coaches crazy right now. The one thing saving him is that this draft class continues to provide a lack of other quality options around him. His next big opportunity will be at the All-Star break, where he’ll get to compete in the Rising Stars competition, something very well suited to his skill set. 21. Dallas Mavericks Harrison Ingram | 6-7 wing/forward | 19 years old | Stanford Stop if you’ve heard this before: Harrison Ingram is a wild card, a freshman who scouts are interested in due to some of the skills he’s showcased, as well as his size on the wing. But he also has some potentially crippling weaknesses that could stop him from being all that impactful. He’s averaging about 12 points and six rebounds per game, but his best skill is actually his passing. He makes a ton of really strong, quick-decision passing reads that really pop on tape more than they do on the box score. But he’s a questionable shooter with some strange-looking mechanics who also could be a below-average NBA athlete. A bet on Ingram would be a bet on his basketball IQ, effort level defensively and potential to improve as a shot maker. His range is seen as anywhere from 20 to 45, which puts him right in that risk zone for freshmen declaring for the draft. 22. Brooklyn Nets (via PHI) Nikola Jović | 6-10 forward | 18 years old | Mega The first international player comes off the board at No. 22. Most scouts see Nikola Jović more as an interesting later first-round pick because his skill level at 6-foot-10 is pretty real. His shooting has continued to be a bit of a roller coaster from 3, but the mechanics aren’t bad and profile toward him making them long term. He’s also a really smart, sharp passer as a point forward. Ultimately, scouts’ questions come on defense. Where is Jović’s home on that end? Can he slide on the perimeter defensively with his feet? Can he be a smart team defender consistently to make up for the lack of foot speed? It remains to be seen.
Spoiler 23. Indiana Pacers (via CLE) Blake Wesley | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Notre Dame Blake Wesley started the season on fire, creating shots in the half court out ball screens with ease and taking Notre Dame by storm. Indeed, he’s still the primary creator as a freshman on a good team that profiles as an NCAA Tournament qualifier. But the issues are starting to show as teams start prepping more for him. He’s down below 40 percent from the field and 32 percent from 3 this year in ACC play. There also isn’t much to write home about for Wesley outside of his scoring, as he’s still a developing defender, distributor and impact player in terms of his floor game. But there might not be a better half-court creator within this freshman class, as he’s electric with a tight handle and three-level potential scoring. Much like Ingram and Sochan above him, this is another player who would likely be helped by staying put for another year at Notre Dame, but there just is a lot of open area right now in the back end of the first round for a player like this to find a home. 24. Milwaukee Bucks Jean Montero | 6-2 guard | 18 years old | Overtime Elite Jean Montero falls a bit here, just because the scouts who have been down to see him with the OTE program have come away a bit confused on what the ultimate role here is. Montero is an offensive creator who has improved as a distributor this season, finding teammates consistently and making interesting reads. But his own scoring ability hasn’t been all that awesome, as he’s struggled to consistently knock down 3s. He’s hitting just 28 percent so far in the tracked games that OTE has played, a concern given that he made only 26 percent from 3 last season with Gran Canaria’s second team last year in Spain. He has an awful lot of craft off the bounce that makes you believe he can score, but he also doesn’t profile as much of a great defender. Basically, Montero is a non-shooting non-defender who isn’t an elite lead guard, and those guys are a bit tough to fit into the NBA right now. Enough teams I’ve talked to are interested in his creativity off the bounce, but I’m not totally sold that this skill package ends up going high on draft night. 25. Memphis Grizzlies (via UTA) Christian Koloko | 7-1 center | 21 years old | Arizona Another big-time defensive center comes off the board here with Christian Koloko. He’ll be the defensive player of the year this season in the Pac-12. Just ask the Big Ten how much they enjoyed dealing with Koloko’s length this season, as Kofi Cockburn was held to a season-worst 5-for-15 mark from the field against Koloko; Hunter Dickinson went 4-for-10. The Wildcats play in a significant drop, where Koloko rarely leaves the paint out of ball screens. But when he does, he’s shown good enough recovery speed and mobility to be able to make it work at the next level. The big issues here are twofold. First, offensively, Koloko has some possessions in terms of footwork and touch that are very concerning. He’s fine when asked to keep it simple but can’t do anything more than that. Second, Koloko’s lower half is very weak right now. He’s done a good job of putting on weight over the last two years, but he still will struggle against stronger NBA centers with skill levels to rebound and anchor the position. 26. Chicago Bulls Trevor Keels | 6-5 guard | 18 years old | Duke Trevor Keels has been extremely hit or miss this season. He’s really struggled to shoot it efficiently from all three levels, although he’s had some games where he’s really knocked them down. He has a bit of a squared-off shooting mechanic, and he largely gets by as a driver through putting his head down and trying to plow through opposing teams. Honestly, Keels could probably stand to return to Duke and be the man on a team next year that could use a good returning guard with toughness. Improving his overall skill level and ability to change speeds would really help him, as well as becoming a more consistent shooter. But there is enough interest in Keels as a defensive player — his strength and feet on that end are terrific on the ball, where he can be a defensive stopper — with his offensive upside to where I would understand him turning pro right now. But much like many of the freshmen here, he’s in that 20-to-45 range that can be questionable for young project players. 27. Miami Heat E.J. Liddell | 6-7 forward | 21 years old | Ohio State E.J. Liddell has been one of the best players in the country this year and, certainly, among the most productive across the board. He’s averaging 20 points, seven rebounds, three assists and 2.5 blocks per game, a tremendous amount of across-the-board box score numbers that very few players in recent history have matched. In fact, Liddell is the only player in the last quarter-century of college hoops to average those numbers. He’s also doing it on real efficiency while shooting better than 50 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3 and leading Ohio State near the top of the Big Ten without what could be referred to as stellar guard play. NBA scouts have similar worries with Liddell that they did last year in terms of his lateral quickness and positionality on defense. Some scouts think he could play some five because of his shot-blocking ability, a la an undersized guy like Grant Williams, but others are less convinced due to his lack of size. That’s why his draft stock is a bit muted around the league. But if a lot of freshmen choose to return to school, Liddell has a very good shot to hear his name called in the first round at this point. 28. Memphis Grizzlies Kennedy Chandler | 6-0 guard | 19 years old | Tennessee I don’t quite have this grade on Kennedy Chandler, but he does have some real tools scouts are intrigued by. His speed is a genuinely awesome skill. He can attack and get into the paint at a high level. I also really love his defensive ability at the point of attack. He fights. The problem is that I don’t think he has great feel out of ball screens in terms of changing speeds, and he can’t shoot. We’ve seen this story before with a better player last year in Sharife Cooper, who ended up going in the 40s on draft night. It’s just exceptionally difficult to be a 6-foot, 170-pound guard in the NBA because of the size and length of the players involved, especially when you struggle with the finished product. On top of that, Chandler has had turnover issues at times this season. You can be as tough as you want defensively, and you’re still going to struggle with switch scenarios and the mismatches the NBA presents. He could stand to return to school and keep working through becoming an expert in ball-screen reads. But much like many freshmen in this class, he’s in that tough 25-to-50 zone. 29. Golden State Warriors Justin Lewis | 6-7 forward | 20 years old | Marquette Justin Lewis is in the same boat as Liddell, another big-bodied wing who has improved just enough as a shooter this year to give scouts hope that he can play as a versatile, bigger four-man wing who can play on the perimeter, make 3s and play within the team. Lewis is 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and does have similarly slow feet to Liddell to give scouts pause. But he averages 17 points per game and has a real nose for the bucket with terrific footwork on drives, pivots and reverse pivots to create separation. He falls below Liddell on my board because he’s not quite the defensive playmaker the Ohio State forward is. But he has the kind of size, length and shooting that teams tend to buy into. He’s in that 25-to-50 bucket right now, which means he has a tough choice to make. 30. Oklahoma City Thunder (via PHX) Caleb Houstan | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Michigan Caleb Houstan has been, well, better since his disaster start to his freshman season. If we’re being realistic, he falls firmly into the bucket of not being ready for the NBA due to his lack of athleticism and still developing handle and skill level. But he’s a big wing at 6-foot-8 who has a good jumper stroke and footwork, and he has improved his standing over the last month of play after being firmly on the pathway to returning to Michigan for a second year. Since Jan. 4, he’s averaged 11 points on 44 percent shooting from the field and 39 percent from 3, numbers that aren’t too bad. Scouts still aren’t particularly sold, and honestly, he should probably head back to Michigan for a second season. But there is a lot of room still left in this draft class for guys to move up.
Griffin and Tari Eason would be a great fallback plan if Rockets miss out on Chet or Jabari. But imagine Chet/Jabari and Tari (or Keegan Murray). That defense would be lockdown.
Comparison between Jabari, Paolo, Keegan, Tari. https://www.tankathon.com/players/c...hero--tari-eason--keegan-murray--jabari-smith
Banchero 3P% is a concern to me. He doesn’t seem to want to mix it up too much on defense, so he needs to really shine on offense in my opinion. The Rockets are in desperate need of a big however. If they can’t get Smith or Holmgren they should go best player available which might be Ivey or Griffin. If they do that they should really hit the trade market or FA like Ayton, Patrick Williams, Myles Turner, or be very aggressive to move up to get Kessler, Williams, or Eason.
I'm telling you, if I were Stone I would be working the phone with Portland and Washington about a deal to move up for Eason involving the Brooklyn pick and Wood. Griffin/Eason solves so many defensive problems. I fear that Chet has to play center given his perimeter D. But I think that Sengun has to play center as well for the same reason. Eason helps immensely to cover Sengun's liability. And Griffin does the same for Green. Wood + Brooklyn pick to: Washington for their first, Hachimura and Ish Smith; or Portland for Eric Bledsoe and their first
Chet perimeter defense is still way above average. There isn’t a forward in the league that can get by him
I'm also high on Eason. Have an opinion on Kendall Brown vs Tari? Both look like defense to offense monsters and their freshman seasons are kinda similar statistically. Baylor's relatively disappointing conference play is causing Brown's stock to slide a bit, which leads me to believe he could be had around 10-15.
You have not watched Banchero play defense if you think he does not want to mix it up. So now we are calling Holmgren a big? Ivey and Griffin are BPA over Banchero? And all of this because his 3p% is a concern?
I think Eason has a little more size and Brown is a better athlete. Brown projects to be better than KMart but I do think there is potential for redundency there. If Brown is closer to 6'8" than 6'6" and has a 7' wingspan then I think he can work at the 4 at 205. Those numbers are great at the 3. End of the day I just think Eason is a guy whose value is starting to climb after being undervalued for a bit. I'm no expert but the way he started his season got my attention and I've been on the bandwagon ever since.
