2022 Astros Minor League Thread

Depth and top end talent adds up. Valdez, Javier, and Urquidy whi you mentioned all made the FanGraphs write-up for 2019.

The Astros 2019 Farm is a great measuring stick for what publications think is a great system. Simple question, is the current farm close in value to the Astros 2019 Farm (whole farm or just those in the FanGraphs write-up)?

 

Yes. Take away the benefit of hindsight, and the 3-34 (and beyond) prospects on the 2019 list compare less than favorably to the current list, imho. And even with the benefit of hindsight, if you take out Tucker and Alvarez, I wouldn’t trade the current farm for the 2019 farm.

We’ll have to wait for the updated fangraphs write up, but I think guys like Melendez and Macuare and Tamarez are every bit as highly thought of as guys like Javier and Framber were back then.

 

The 2019 list being highly rated is not hindsight. FanGraphs top 5 farms in 2019 were TBR, SD, Atl, Hou, and CHW. All those systems had a lot of busts, but overall I would say FanGraphs was 4 of 5 with Atlanta being over-rated (though Riley, Anderson, and Wright all helped in 2021 WS).

I'm guessing Melendez and Tamarez are going to be higher on FanGraphs 2022 list than Javier and Framber..though probably the same grade as them or within a half grade. Macuare was on the 2019 list. The problem with comparing Melendez and Tamarez to Javier and Framber is that there were a lot of guys in the same range as Javier and Framber or better in 2019. While I like some of the young arms in the system today, some of them are going to bust and the depth in the system today does not look close to what it was in 2019. Personally, I liked Javier a lot better than his rankings, but I never thought Valdez would throw strikes.

So basically, you would take the 2022 Farm System over the 2019 Farm system minus the two best hits of 2019 Farm System and minus the guys in the 2019 Farm System that got overlooked (Melendez, Tamarez) because they were still early in development and the 2019 Farm System was overstocked. I wouldn't. You might be right.

Overall though, I will take the 2019 system FanGraphs list over the 2022 FanGraphs list when it comes out. I will take the entire 2019 system, list and off list, over the 2022 System.

 

Speaking of hindsight, it's interesting to me that 9 players are listed as top prospects both in 2019 and currently

Whitley went from #1 with 65 grade to #9 and 40+

Nova went from #8 and 45 to #11 and 40+

L.Santana went from #11 40+ to #28 35+

Solis was 13 w/ 40+ and now 4th w/ 45

Ivey moved from 14th to 8 w/ 40+

Solomon was 20th 40 now 7th 40+

J.Perez actually fell 28th to 31st w/ 35+ grade but almost certainly will move up when new list comes out.

Pena is big mover 34th and 35+ up to 1st (42nd overall) w/50 score.

Macuare #38 35+ up to #19 w/ 40

That most of those improved since 2019 shows that Fangraphs recognizes the depth just not the high end talent any longer.

It's also interesting that last year's Fangraphs top 100 had 50 players w/55+ rating but Jeremy Pena is listed #42 currently w/50 rating.

 

I think the 2019 farm got its ranking almost entirely from Whitley and Tucker. At the time Whitley was considered to have the best stuff in the minors and Tucker was also a Top 25 prospect. I don’t think those publications were ranking them in the top 5 due to much if any consideration of Framber, Javier or guys they ranked outside the top 10. But I could be wrong about that.

The pitching depth that has been the hallmark of their farm the last few seasons is so subjective that it is very hard to predict if/when that changes. We are stuck waiting to see if they still have the secret sauce as guys like Tamarez and Macuare percolate. I am optimistic but I totally admit that I don’t have any convincing reply to your pessimism.

 

Interesting to see Berryhill on this list.

 

Looks like JC Correa is going to try playing catcher. Interesting move.

 

If you're a total fringe prospect with hands and a good arm there's no reason not to mess around in the offseason and learn to play catcher

 

AAA season expanded to 150 games to allow MLB players to have a place to rehab in competitive games into late September. Interesting since the AAA schedules have already been released but I assume they’ll just tack on 2 series to each teams schedule.

 

If the minor league season starts without the lockout being resolved I think Houston would be in better position than most clubs in terms of AAA roster strength, given they only have 2 position players on their 40 man who currently project to be optioned (Siri and Perez) and they have a ton of extra pitchers. I would guess their AAA opening day roster would look like this in that scenario:

C: Lee, Papierski, Manea, Shaver
IF: Kessinger, Leon, De Goti, Diaz, Wielansky
OF: Julks, Matijevic, Gonzalez, Costes
SP: Brown, France, Donato, Conine, Mushinski
RP: Blanco, Scrubb, Torres, McKee, Scheetz, Hernandez, Record, Olczak

 

Hooks: 138 games this year starting on April 8. (120 last year)

They played 102 of their 120 games last year against 4 teams (SA, Midland, Amarillo, Frisco) but will play those teams 84 times this year.

 

OF and pen are weak, but the rest of the roster is strong. Look forward to seeing them when they're in RR.

Any thoughts what CC might look like? You may have posted this already.

 

I don't think the Hooks roster will be affected much by the lockout, as Solis and Perez are the only 2 40 man players I expected to be assigned to AA and I think there are enough extra pitchers that they won't rush guys past AA just to fill out the AAA roster during the lockout. This is how I think the AA roster will look:

C: Berryhill, Stubbs, Salazar, Holderbach
IF: Valdez, Whitcomb, Hensley, Arias
OF: Schreiber, Barefoot, McKenna, Adolph, Abreu
SP: T Brown, Melendez, Macuare, Endersby, Deason, Ruppenthal, Moclair
RP: Serrano, Peck, Conn, Garcia, Horrell, Sprinkle

There are still quite a few extra pitchers that could end up at AA: Freure, Collado, DeJuneas, Cobos, Benedetti, Henderson. Lawson, Casey, Cabral, McDonald, Cody, and Lopez. I would expect once the lockout ends that Perez would replace Holderbach on the position player roster and Solis would be added to the pitching staff. The pitching assignments are total guesses tho.

There's no surefire top 100 guys on that roster but I still think they could be quite good. Lots of upside on both sides.

 

LF and RF should have typical AAA defense (not good for MLB) with above average AAA bats. No idea who plays CF except when Leon is out there.

 

I've paid zero attention to the offseason, are they still planning on him splitting time between SS and CF?