Even discounting the easiest path to a Trump victory in a re-do of 2020, there are still other options on the table. The margins in Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania (all Biden states) were very narrow as well. There are many avenues for a Trump victory in 2024. You guys need to wake up and come to grips with how precarious things are.
No ****, sherlock. 2020 was the most tumultuous time in our country since the 1960s. If 2024 has a brand new existential threat and riots in the streets I expect a giant turnout then too. Do you expect such things to transpire in 2024? Cause I don't.
You're absolutely correct that the Hispanic vote is a huge problem for Dems right now. D/R is basically even money among Hispanic voters as it stands, which is a horrendous turn of events for Dems. That demo could absolutely sink their ship in 2024 if they don't figure it out quick.
Again Trump was the incumbent and in US elections it is hard to beat an incumbent. For Biden consider that at this point in time Clinton, Reagan and Obama were in terrible shape. All three did poorly in their first term midterm elections. It was so bad for Clinton that there was talk he might switch parties out of an ultimate triangulation move. There was talk just like with Biden that Reagan wouldn't run again. In all three cases they won rather handily. For GW Bush his popularity had dropped quite a bit since 911 and it was becoming obvious that the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan weren't going as well as the Administration claimed. He still won reelection, although closer than those other Presidencies. Trump is unlike any other President so maybe he could join Grover Cleveland to be the only non-Consecutive President. But also because he's unllike any other President also means that he could also remind most Americans why they voted against him in both elections.
This is true at the lower levels because of name recognition and access to money. At the Presidential level, it's far less relevant. Presidents often win a 2nd term not because they are the incumbent, but because they were likeable enough to win once already so they are likely a good candidate. You also have some "devil you know" elements, but Trump blows that up because we'd know both devils in that scenario. Clinton was near 60% approval a year into his Presidency and at the highest point of his first term. Reagan and Obama were both at 50%. Biden is at 40%. Since WW2, the only two Presidents with 40% approval at this point in their term were Ford and Trump, neither of whom won re-election. There were others at 40% earlier or later in their terms, though - so this is very much a moment in time thing. I suspect if Omicron goes down, Biden's approval ratings will go up - and 3 years is a long time regardless.
once again, Trump, the incumbent, needing to flip 3 more states in order to win, this underscores how comfortable the challenger's victory was
you seem dense, but not PGal's level. thank you for corroborating my point, Biden's electoral victory, as the challenger, of 302 to 223 was a comfortable one. once again, the fact that Trump, the incumbent needing to flip 3 states in order to win, underscores how comfortable the challenger's electoral victory was
Yes, I know it was due to Independents, but that does not blunt my argument at all. do you think Independents are gonna switch back to Trump? I think Trump will drive more people to polls to vote against him than for him, he had Republicans voting against him, he lost 2 senate seats in red states, what makes him a better candidate now? This all about how Trump has alienated a large swath of the electorate, what do you think he can do to win them back by 20/24? The same metrics that got Biden elected in 20/20 will be there against Trump again. And unlike 2016 he will be bloodied in a primary leading up to 2024.
You're pretty much making my argument why incumbency matters even for the Presidency. As history has shown incumbent presidents tend to be hard to be beat. Perhaps not exactly at the same point in their Presidencies but Clinton, Obama and Reagan all were in trouble in their first terms. The recovery under Reagan was not proceeding well until after 1982. Clinton was in terrible shape after the failure of his health care initiative. Also the 1993 budget almost didn't pass with Bob Kerry famously saying on the floor of the Senate he would vote it so as not to doom Clinton's Presidency. The Democrats got pasted in 2010 after the drawn out passage of the ACA. My point is declaring that the Biden Presidency is dead and he is doomed to lose reelection is way too early. It's like the when Chron declared the 2005 Astros' season dead in June only for them to go to the WS.
But he did not win them and he is not as strong as he was that's just the facts you will not acknowledge. So using this logic Hillary got a shot as well right since Trump won by the same margin in 2016. You can continue to predict doom and gloom, but I am gonna look at all the facts and not cherry-pick.
Also to add I'm not saying that Biden is guaranteed to win against Trump if it's another head to head. It is way too early to say anything remotely like that either. Three years is a very long time in politics. By 2024 we could be looking at COVID-19 as over, inflation back under control, some steps towards national voting laws passed and some form of BBB passed.
, you do know that in 2008 it was Obama against McCain, no? scoreboard baby, the independents / Dem voters had spoken, Obama was the stronger candidate.
I agree there are a lot of warning signs and things shouldn't be taken for granted. If it's Trump running again in 2024 I will be donating and campaigning to whoever Democrat is running against him. I just think you're downplaying the historical and other evidence that shows that Biden isn't doomed.
We're dangerously close to the window on Biden's first-term agenda being closed. Congress isn't going to give him diddly dick after the midterms. If he goes into 2024 with only the infrastructure bill under his belt, it's hard to see voters really warming up to him much. I'm as much of a "X years is a long time" guy as you're gonna find, but even the best outlooks appear to be a return to normal levels of misery which are what got us Trump in the first place.
i notice that you've intentionally omitted Trump's low approval rate. btw, Bush Sr. had an approval rate of ~~ 90%, after Desert Storm, and he proceeded to lose re-election to Bill Clinton
Again Obama nor Clinton got much passed once they lost control of Congress in the first term. Clinton's signature health care issued didn't even pass with Democrats in control of Congress. Given that Biden has been able to get two pieces of major legislation passed with strong Republican support I'm not going to completely count out losing Congress as meaning nothing else get's done. Besides that as we all should know these days Presidents can get a lot done with executive orders. Also as stated the best outlooks, and I'm not guaranteeing them but this is in the realm of possibility, show that COVID will come under control possibly sooner, inflation could be reigned in and once those two get addressed you will see a global economic surge. On the legislative front there still is a decent chance the Democrats get some form of BBB passed just out of desperation. Even Republicans are signalling they would be open to election reform on the Electors Act.
I just don't think incumbency is some magical shield that you guys seem to think it is. Especially in this circumstance vs. an even more publicly recognized figure who also just so happens to be an ex-President. Major and I are looking at all these warning signs and leading negative indicators and trying to stress to yall just how unsafe of a prospect re-election is and you're mostly hand-waving it away. I'm one of the more bullish people here on Biden's chances BTW, while everyone else is piling on him and making plans to move on, I know just how much of an eternity 30 months is in American politics... that being said, I don't enjoy describing just how dire the situation is, but you choose to ignore it at your own peril.
I'm fully aware of that, however, I'm letting you know that this thought of yours: "some steps towards national voting laws passed and some form of BBB passed." is wish-casting and almost certainly not going to happen.
