he doesn't have the overall versatility Chet has but he was taken #2 after AI and before guys like shareef, marbury, antoine walker, ray allen, kobe, peja, steve nash. The defensive comparisons are there with him though. We also need to take into account the worst 3-4 teams in the league right now all have glaring holes in the frontcourt and Chet would plug that, who fits your ideal big as an elite defensive presence in the modern era
Body type should be part of the equation, but it should not dominate the equation. Holmgren's weakness should be man-to-man post up defense, but this should be mitigated a lot in the NBA if he isn't guarding the primary post threat. His body type should not prevent him from being a help defender. Every time Griffin has taken the ball to the rim recently against someone of Holmgren's body type, he's been rejected.
There really is no one who has had Holmgrens body type that has been considered at the top of the draft. I don't look at him as a post guy but a wing and even then his body type is an issue. Since when has a guy whose main claim to fame is being a great help defender been thought of as a franchise guy? Will he be able to guard wings is a much bigger question than him being a help defender, unless zone is going to be a thing all of a sudden. Mobley would be his comp but can he guard on the perimeter like Mobley? My point being nobody is picking a guy at 1 in a draft with this much talent because he is a great help defender.
Interesting no Baldwin jr or Duren? I know Baldwin is having a down year at Mil. But he’s 6 10 and we all know he can shoot lights out. I don’t think he’ll slip past lottery. Duren has essentially lost a year by the atrocity that is Memphis (reminder he should be a senior in hs) I’m not paying attention to the offense since there’s no semblance of a system for a rim rolling big man. But his standout stuff to me is defense. He controls the paint and has some mobility to hedge and tag. I’d put both of them over a guy like montero who’s a small Pg playing essentially high schoolers. agreed on top 3 though. Chet is generational defender and without any usage or spacing hasn’t shown his true offensive capabilities. Griffin is my favorite player of the bunch, who isn’t a sucker for big skilled wings. Smith is a great number 2 option who scales up for winning teams. Would be lucky for any of them. what’s your take on the bigs this year? IMO there’s a lot of gifted centers who can play starter or backup this year. Chet duren traevion koloko kamagete Williams nzosa blanking on the French kid edey Edwards just to name. Few.
There isn’t really a Traditional generational Offensive talent in this draft. Relative to his class Chet brings tangible talents. His defense far and away has been impactful at every level. His defensive stats are comparable to mobleys. He blocks and never fouls. Both played similar level of competition being on the west coast. Mobley is stronger and more fluid but Chet has probably better handle/shooting that he’s displayed outside his role at Gonzaga.
Hakeem's claim to fame was being a help defender. Legend has it, Kenny Smith (may have been another guard), once told an opposing guard he would let him drive to the rim fee and clear. The other guard bricked a three. Hakeem wasn't only a help defender. Holmgren isn't only a help defender. Edit: Also, I'm not sure this draft has a franchise guy. Smith and Paolo both look like Robins to me. Griffin and Ivey are both projection on whether they can create enough for others to be franchise guys.
Duren and maybe Baldwin will likely be drafted in the lottery, this was just my personal projections of the best players...... Baldwin has size and a lot of buzz, but he really hasn't looked good against good competition. I didn't see anything that excited me. I think he is still worth a #1 but there are other guys I can more easily talk myself into taking in the top 14. As for Duren, he has defensive ability and years ago I would have him highly rated because of his ability to defensively control the paint. However the game as radically changed and that type of player isn't valuable unless they can contribute on offense and guard more on the perimeter. Duren has some foot speed but is still and the actual skill level of his game isn't very high. I think he will likely end up like Plumlee and other more traditional bigs with limited offensive ability. There are a number of international bigs that I like, because they have skill sets that fit the modern game. Maybe they cannot all defend or some of them cannot shoot..... but they can do one or the other, or can guard some on the perimeter. I haven't seen enough tape to give too strong opinions. I love the physical skills of Nzosa but that isn't enough for me to evaluate him, I look at someone like Mo Bamba that had many translatable physical traits and even an outside shot, and it still has been somewhat of a struggle.
Chet also has better shot blocking instincts and a longer wingspan..... Chet also has a higher motor and actually gets off the ground a little faster. There are some traits that Chet has that may make him better defensively than Mobley. What separates Mobley is that his fluidity and movement is even better than Chet, and Mobley is the most naturally smart defender since Draymond Green. You can see Mobley knows what will happen on the defensive end before it happens. Chet is really good at that too, he studies hard it isn't as effortless.
Thanks In general this is true, but it has varied over time. There have been periods where scorers that were not good defenders were not viewed as valuable. Also, there isn't really a guaranteed elite scorer/creator in this draft. Someone like Griffin or maybe Banchero could get 28 points a night someday, but that isn't an opinion that is widely held. So without an elite scorer, someone that can dominate a defense and not be an offensive liability is very valuable. You can look at the impact that Mobley is having this season. Sure there have been defensive guys taken over offensive guys depending on the draft. Ayton went number one over more offensive geared players. Greg Oden is another example.... Ben Simmons.... Bogut, Howard. To be clear this is my rankings. I think there is like a 66% chance that Holmgren doesn't go number one. I just have him at number one on my board. The highest upside offensive player isn't Smith, he isn't in the top 2-3 in this draft. Smith is appealing because he can hit 3's at a very high rate, he has a lot of length and has a very high floor defensively because of his length and his athleticism. Smith doesn't really create at all. The thought process with Smith is that his ability to defend and hit a high volume of 3's means that being a near all star level player is likely. What I find interesting is how revisionist people are. The draft last year was very well thought of until the college basketball season happened. At that point the opinion of most experts was that the draft class was a disappointment. A number of guys pegged to be elite played poorly like Williams and Boston and Christopher. I was always high on the draft class last year, at least at the top 5-8 of the draft.... but a lot of experts viewed it as a mediocre class. Now suddenly I am seeing some of these same experts proclaim that they knew the 2021 draft class was so good. So I am not saying you are saying this, but I don't agree with this idea that all the scouts and experts felt it was an elite draft at the time. As for the 2022 draft class, I think that it is likely not quite as good as the 2021 draft class but that is mostly because I don't like this class outside the top 15 picks. The 2021 class had better depth. I think that the top of this draft class is better than people realize though and has a chance to be nearly as good or as good as the 2021 draft class. Everyone kept talking about the 2022 class as having two guys in it at the top. Now the main stream has added Smith to the mix. However reality is that there are 5 guys that are possibly elite players in this class and no one is clearly better than the rest. Holmgren/Smith/Griffin/Banchero and Ivey all have very high ceilings.... further, Holmgren, Griffin and especially Ivey are seeing their numbers limited because of circumstances beyond their control. Right now if you told me you would take Ivey #1, I wouldn't flinch.... Ivey is the best explosive athlete in this class. He has shown that ability to pass and be a combo guard. He is on a team that has TERRIBLE spacing and that makes it very difficult for him to get into the lane. If he were on a different team his scoring would likely be a lot higher and his field goal percentage would as well. Ivey also has a very high defensive upside and is considered to be from a great environment and is a hard worker. With all of that going for him, he is 4th in most mock drafts.
I am not sure if this makes sense or is logical. One reason Chet is intriguing is because he is unique and fills a niche on a team that is not going to be easily replicated. So… if you already have Green and Sengun. Christopher/Garuba. Assets like Tate/Martin. This years nets or Heat pick next years Bucks pick. A ton of future picks from the Nets. Lastly next years Rockets pick. Well you can fill in the roster accordingly with another Paolo type player that is more conventional. Or another guard like Ivey that is potentially good at defense so Green can do what he will likely do on offense down there road. I forgot to mention whatever asset you from wood and Gordon. I’m hoping somehow the two picks owed these next two drafts plus wood and Gordon into another top 7-8 pick this or next draft. Chet though could be a seemingly great teammate for Sengun and Green. All of these assets salary cap be damned.
Baldwins team is truly atrocious. Outside of him there doesn’t seem to be even international level pros on the team. Noble of him to play for his dad but his stock has severely suffered from it. He was never an initiator or beat you off the dribble guy. So I’m not sure if this is the right environment to make any guesses on him. Having said that he made the decision going there knowing what it would be like AND he’s kind of checked out on some games. That’s been a question about him prior to this year. Essentially I think this year is completley washed. I feel for duren. Prior to this year I thought he had great defensive upside with potential to be a high post hub. when you get a chance check our kamagete and ibou Badji. I’m not sure what your flavor of choice is for roster building/archetype of choice but those guys defensive potential and versatility has been impressive for me. I’m a broken record but I highly value defensive impact/ versatility out of my bigs and I think there are a number of guys this draft who could be your back line stopper.
Chet seems to be a better rim protector whereas Mobley can play that free safety a bit better. I’m a huge fan of Chet’s approach. He seems to have mastered so many different aspects to defense and puts it together quick. The only concern I have is if Chet can’t contain the perimeter as well as Mobley and he’s too slight to be a true solo 5 and we don’t have a 5 like Allen to pair with him will he have the same impact as Mobley. And if he’s playing the 4 will he shoot well enoughlay big enough to not have a wing guard him and become a liability on offense? IMO he has all the counters to those questions (hasn’t displayed his full handle, hasn’t fully unlocked his shot, hasn’t shown his playmaking out of dribble, hasn’t gone to the dirk fade as his go to). He honestly has a bag that he hasn’t shown but those doubts are always gonna be there.
I think people just want an offensive savant at the top of the draft. Sometimes a draft class just won’t have that obvious guy and people try to project a guy into that role to justify taking him high, instead of just looking at what’s available in that class. No this class doesn’t have an obvious lead guard or nuclear offensive option or ridiculous athlete with high processing ability. But it does have potentially a defensive back line genius, a solid number 2 with high level shooting team defense, and a big wing jack of all trades.
I have seen Ismael and Ibou play and have liked what I have seen, I just haven't seen enough to compare them to players I have seen so much more. Ibou gets my attention and I think has a lot of potential to make an impact because he has a 7'9" wingspan which is disgustingly impressive. I just haven't seen enough to know if he has the instincts to rotate or make the right plays. I also agree with you, it is a lot easier to build a defense if you have a very long back end stopper. If you have one that doesn't have to be removed because of switches and can shoot well enough to not clog the lane; you have a HUGE advantage and can cover the defensive limitations of other guys on the floor. Can a team be elite defensively without a true backstop center? Yes, but you need 3 of your 4 other starters to be really good defensively in a man and team concept and that is hard. Golden State got that, but they also lucked into Draymond Green being one of the best ever at what he does. I also think now point guards that are really good and smart defenders are underrated.
Right. Everyone wants a James Harden or a Kevin Durant..... but people forget that Harden is one of the 3 best one offensive players to ever play in his prime, and KD is one of the ten best players in NBA history. For every Harden and Durant - there is a Carmelo Anthony who is still really good offensively, but not good enough overall to really impact winning at the highest level. Also what gets forgotten is that it is about building a team and not just a single guy. There are players in this draft that can have a pronounced impact on winning games.
(i like discussing the rockets in this thread without the noise of the other area) what is your opinion on the Nets picks? Potential of them draft wise regarding where the Nets are going also if you think they should be traded with someone like Wall's contract next season perhaps.
Just going through the list of previous champions and runner ups every single team has had a solid interior defensive presence and POA defenders. In order of previous finals teams Bucks- Giannis/Lopez Pho-Ayton/CP LAL- AD/Caruso Mia- Bam/Butler? Tor- Gasol/Green/Lowry GSW-green/Kay GSW-green/kd/Klay Hou-cap/cp3 GSW-dynasty. Hou-cap/cp3 Clev-lebron/nba ban GSW-dynasty GSW-dynasty. Clev-lebron Spurs-Timmy/wingstop. Mia-Bosh/lebron Mia-bosh/lebron. Spurs-Timmy/wings Mia-bosh/lebron OKC- Ibaka/SG Dallas-Tyson/kidd. Mia-Bosh/lebron Lakers-Bynum/artest. Bos- KG/rondo Lakers bigs/artest. Orl-Howard/Lee bos-kg/rondo. LAL-bigs/kobe etc. Just trying to say a back line defensive stopper seems to be a prerequisite to winning a chip. Winning a chip hasn’t been done in recent memory. If we think we have our elite 3 level scorer we need to work on getting our defensive foundation pieces and system in place. as an aside this is why I’m skeptical of senguns scalability. Its sacrilegious to mention it on this forum but it’s been a thought in my head. Don’t get me a wrong a high post offense is my favorite offensive system to watch. Guys cutting around a big dropping dimes is so difficult to guard. It’s why Jokic is my favorite player. But if sengun cannot man the paint or corral dribble penetrators he has to have a reliable 3 ball if he’s too scale up to a winning team.
