I like the kid but this has been one of his deficiencies for his entire basketball career. side note…the G league is trash. He skipped college to play in a developmental pro ball league and he got zero fundamental development on his shooting form and zero development on his body.
That's cool but he never was a shooter, and then he decided to get better at it to fit in the NBA. Immediately Jalen Green shot 36% in G League, is shooting 32% in the NBA, trending upward practically every week since he joined. I think almost 40% in the last 10 games or so? Right now, he's with all the people in that list I posted, and most of the people on that list are the best shooters of all time. Most of the people on that list did not hit their 3's in their rookie season. Who is going to leave this kid open from 3? Does that sound like he is still that kid in high school? To say there's no evidence to show his shooting won't be different than his HS days is not reasonable. There's plenty.
I don’t think he will ever be a 40% shooter from 3 but I think he can be in the 36-38% range on decent attempts. If he can shoot 50-55% from 2 consistently he’ll be a damn fine scorer
I think it's fair to say that: (1) Green may never be a .4+ three-point shooter; and (2) his shot will continue to improve to the point that other teams need to respect it. With a guy like Green, you just need to shoot the three well enough so that the D has to close out on you, which opens up lanes. People forget that Kobe and MJ shot around .33 from the three. Now, I realize the game has changed, but given how Green has progressed, I'm guessing he'll end up as a .35 - .38 three-point shooter, which is fine. Anything above that is gravy.
I never really worried about his scoring. I don‘t believe he will join the 50,40,90 pantheon and I expect his 3pt percentage to stay sub 40 for most of his career, but thats ok. If he gets his shot, he will score - some growing pains at this stage are normal, although I must admit I was hoping he would be shooting better at this stage of the season. I was always more worried with all the other aspects of his game. On defense he looks kinda like Harden did for a long tim - not bad to pretty good in 1 on 1 situations but pretty bad at team defense, losing his man or being late on a switch. A lot of that should be coaching and willingness - so he can improve here. As for rebounds, he needs to get a bit stronger and, if possible develope better instincts. But he should be able to average something like 5 rebounds a game… his assists numbers are a lot lower than I would have hoped - but he also gets the ball a lot fewer times than I would expect. I hope to see the biggest improvement in that area (together with his handles). The question to me is: will he become a 28-5-5 player or a 22-3-2 player with bad efficiency. But I don‘t think his floor is much lower than that.
Star scorers don't hit 40% from 3. The appropriate number is 36-37% at high volume, which he will do comfortably.
Jalen Green needs to be around 45/36/80 and at least 57-58% TS in the future to be an adequate high volume scorer…those are the minimum percentages and level of efficiency I could live with
Isn't that a bit too early to declare for a 19 year old? Lonzo Ball by all accounts was a significantly bigger disaster as a shooter, but he's now a 42% 3 point shooter. He has increased his shooting percentage season by season and fixed his broken jump shot. The only thing that matter is whether Green has the attitude to become better, and by all accounts (scouts, fellow coaches etc.) he does. One of the reasons why I thought he was a great prospect was because all scouts and coaches specifically talked about his incredible drive and work ethic, as well as willingness to learn. Players with talent and the right mindset make remarkable improvements in very short periods of time. Closing the door on a 19 year old on what he can and cannot do seems premature.
Ball is an outlier. Typically players don’t make that kind of improvement. He’s also not asked to take many 3s off the bounce. I could be wrong but most scorers that aren’t pure shooters are going to be around 36-38%. That’s really good. If you think he’s going to be a 30 pt per game guy with 40% + shooting you’re basically saying he’s going to be one of the best all time
definitely didn't help that G League last year was a in a shortened bubble, and they only played 15 games. I doubt anyone actually had the time to develop anything. Although he did shoot 36-37% from 3 in the G league, which could just be a good streak.
There's an episode of What We Do in the Shadows that explains this online personality type in detail.
