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[Official] Astros Off-Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Nov 3, 2021.

  1. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    I think we'll be hard pressed to acquire him without including Pena in addition to Leon & Brown plus others. All-Stars don't get traded before their arbitration years very often. Adam Eaton is the one name I could think of. It cost the Nationals the best pitching prospect in baseball (Giolito), plus a top 30 prospect in Reynaldo Lopez, and another pretty good prospect in Dane Dunning.

    I do suppose it is possible that we would trade one of our young OFers like we did Toro and Straw.
     
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  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Provided club control rule changes don't adversely affect the club control status of Mullins, there is zero chance Astros can acquire him if he's viewed as a 6-WAR player by Baltimore only using prospects. If he's viewed as a 4-WAR player, Pena, Lee, and Brown my be viewed in the neighborhood of his value. Though, I think the Astros would have to sign Correa or Story first.
     
  3. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    As much as I think we would all love to see that lineup opening day, they are not going to sign Story unless it's at a really good value (i.e. less than what Baez got at 6/$140M) and I don't see that happening...

    Edit: Also don't see why anyone would want Story given how profound his home/away splits are, especially given it's both power (HR every 16.7 PA at home vs 24.5 PA on road) and hitting overall (over 60 points worse in BA)...

    Matt Holliday was a really good hitter both at home and on the road and DJ still hit .274 on the road for his career and his power numbers aren't much different. Arenado's splits were closer to Story's splits, and his first year in STL offensively was no where near his COL days...and his splits STILL weren't as extreme as Story's.
     
    #1743 Htown Stros, Dec 8, 2021
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2021
  4. HTown2017Champs

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    Story I think can provide good power with the Crawford Boxes, probably good for 32 or so homers a year given his tendencies. If all he costs is 22-24M annually, for 5 or 6 years, I'd do it. You also have the option to move him to 2B, and Altuve to DH down the line. for better defense (if Alvarez can learn 1B or be serviceable in LF).
     
  5. Nook

    Nook Member

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    The Astros have spoken to the Orioles about Mullins but they have had more talks with the Pirates about Bryan Reynolds … or so I was told today.
     
  6. Hemingway

    Hemingway Member

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    Can you give me a breakdown on Bryan Reynolds? I saw his stat line and got really excited, but don’t know much about him and what it would take to get him.
     
  7. Landry's Tooth

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    My concern is Jeremy Pena could be the better player right now and that's a lot of money to spend.

    WAR?

    How about wins above Pena? You can't calculate it because Pena is an unknown...

    Story away from Coors full time is as well...
     
  8. Landry's Tooth

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    Trevor Story expectation for me would be a .250 hitter with a .320 ob and around 15 homeruns with good defense.

    I think it's reasonable to expect Pena to be able to do similar and if he can't you can still trade for someone midseason....
     
  9. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    Bryan Reynolds might be the most valuable player being publicly mentioned in a potential trade across the league. Under team control through the 2025 season, OBP in the .370-.390 range, career .290 hitter, and that is on a BAD Pirates team. It would certainly take a haul to pry Reynolds away, but unlike Mullins- there is no denying the talent level and the consistency. Center field would be solved for the foreseeable future.

    Ultimately, the new CBA is going to dictate the value of the trade market moving forward- especially when it comes to team control, arbitration, etc. I’m curious to see if they make any adjustments to FA eligibility “retroactive” to current big league players or if they make it to where the changes will begin with the 2022 draft class. Makes more sense to do it that way because the way teams have operated with prospects and valuations over the past decade.
     
  10. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Club control changes will be interesting because not only does it potentially effect some current players (though I expect they'd phase in the rule for most current players), but also the value of prospects. Prospects could become less valuable as they have fewer years of control, especially older prospects. If they did 29.5, Pena & Whitley are suddenly FAs after 5 seasons instead of 7. A guy like Shawn Dubin would only have 3 years.

    I'm strongly in favor of such a change as players deserve a chance to hit FA before their skills start to decline, but it will have to change how teams value prospects.
    I'm pretty shocked that the Pirates would entertain trading Reynolds. 4 years left & 2 great seasons under his belt already. I guess they just really don't want to pay arbitration salaries. Maybe they'll do a salary floor, and that would change things, because that is terrible.
     
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  11. Nook

    Nook Member

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    A break down?

    Well defensively I know him very well. Overall he is an average to maybe slightly above average centerfielder. He gets very good jumps on shallow balls, one of the 3-4 best in baseball. He is below average going back on balls. He is above average as far as the routes he takes to get to balls and his arm is only average.

    Overall he is an average to slightly above average starting centerfielder in the major leagues. That may not sound like a glowing endorsement but centerfielders are the very best of the best defensively. He would be a gold glove left fielder.

    As a runner he has some speed, but is not really much of a base stealer. He is someone like Marisnick on the bases, where his speed is noticeable when it comes to going first to third. The longer he runs, the faster he gets. He would be possibly the Astros fastest runner in the line up.

    Offensively is where he can be special and it isn't because he is great at any single skill, but because he is good at just about all of them. He is a relatively high contact hitter that has shown the ability to make adjustments over the course of a season. He also is a real student of hitting and is known as the hardest worker on the Pirates. He has a lot of extra base power, including homeruns. He will strike out over 100 times, but he also draws a fair amount of walks. In short, he can hit anywhere in the line up.

    The only red flags are a rough COVID 2020 season and there is a real possibility he will need to switch to LF in 3-4 seasons.... however there is also a chance that he focuses his attention on fielding over the next few seasons and improves his positioning enough to stay in center.

    He is a very smart and well rounded player, and as a hitter reminds me of Michael Brantley in his prime.
     
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  12. Nook

    Nook Member

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    As it was put to me, the Astros have called and talked to them numerous times about Reynolds. I don't think they have any pressure to deal him but if they think they can get the pieces to compete a few years down the road, then they will look at it. Apparently they already do not expect to compete in 22 or even 23, so everything is being done for 24.

    I would pay more for Reynolds than Mullins, because I think Reynolds is still getting better.... but I really don't know how much the Astros would give back, only heard that the names would "hurt".... and to me, what does that mean really? We don't have a Correa in the pipeline or even a Bregman.... if it takes Pena and Brown and McCormick, then I likely make that move because of the relatively low cost of Reynolds financially compared to his production.
     
  13. Nook

    Nook Member

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    You are right, Pena could end up being a 3-4 WAR player this season.... he is an above average glove at SS and he has developed a lot of power, his wrists are extremely impressive and he can go opposite field very well for homers. The Astros player development deserve a lot of credit for opposite field power development... it isn't a fluke that Alvarez and Meyers also have shown that ability. The IDEAL situation for the Astros is to have Pena start at SS and be damn good. However how likely is that?

    At the end of the day it comes down to player assessment.... and luckily the Astros are at worst one of the 3 best in all of baseball at that skill (TB/LAD) .... so I think we have to ultimately trust what the player assessment and development people for the Astros have to say. Overall the Astros have been creepily good at projecting players.... to the point where they don't give a damn about rankings or what other teams think.
     
  14. awc713

    awc713 Member

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    Everyone wants big name additions, and we certainly have the payroll to add some pieces…but part of me wouldn’t mind just playing it conservatively. There’s a rookie curve for sure, but let Pena get his feet wet with a cheap vet SS to help, and moving forward w/ Jake/Chaz/Siri in CF for the first few weeks/months of the season and ease Leon in when ready. We still have a very strong roster top to bottom and are primed to compete in the division/league even if there are upgradeable spots on the team…and make corresponding moves as necessary down the road.
     
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  15. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    The idea that you would trade Pena, Brown, AND McCormick for him intrigues me. He must be very good.

    I realize that the Pirates will want a haul for him and they should.

    I also realize that the Astros don't have any 60 grade or top 30-40 prospects. MLB pipeline does not have any Astros listed in top 100 which makes me think they have not updated for a while. Fangraphs has Pena (42), K.Lee(76), and H.Brown(93) in the top 100.

    I would hate to trade any of those 3, but there is no way the Pirates consider an offer without at least 1( probably 2).

    I think Lee is the closest thing the Astros have to an untouchable. And Pena really shouldn't ( can't) be traded unless the shortstop position is filled by someone else.

    In fact, I would say the biggest reason to get a CF is so they can keep Pena and absorb his unproven bat at short.

    That leaves Hunter Brown headlining a package to Pittsburgh that may even be a non starter, but at very least will need more prospect capital to be considered.

    I say Hunter Brown, Santos, Perez, and Diaz?

    That's #3, 8, 9, and 13 according to MLB pipeline.

    If they want an OF to replace Reynolds then McCormick, Siri, Barber, Brewer, Barefoot, or even Meyer ( though hurt) could replace one of them. Depending on who the Pirates like.

    Once you look at the prospects lower than #7 or 8 the Pirates can probably have anyone they want and the Astros would be happy to accept. Maybe even add a 5th.
     
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  16. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    This makes a lot of sense. Especially if you consider the Astros just led MLB in runs scored and Bregman had a poor season.

    If he just improves to the avg of 2019-2021 its about 85r, 25hr, 85rbi. And he could hit 100-30-100. That replaces Correa's production by itself.
     
  17. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Question?

    Who is the starting 1B in 2023?

    Yuli? He is a free agent but I'm sure he would resign for an offer similar to what he has been making. And he will probably be worth that. But his power was way down in 2021 and most teams want more of that out of 1B, and he will be 40 before we know it.

    Alvarez? In a perfect world Yordan becomes an acceptable option. That would really improve the team overall from a versatility standpoint. I have not heard anything though.

    Jones? Made great strides in 2nd half last year.Looked to finally "get it" meaning the MLB level of competition and game play. I like him a lot but ceiling is probably a short term fill in and bench player with some power and position versatility.

    Someone in the system? Norel Gonzalez? Joe Perez? Matijevic?

    Trade or sign a free agent?

    Someone I didn't think about?
     
  18. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    This is probably the most likely scenario. However, having a 7-9 of McCormick/Siri, Pena/Iglesias, and Maldonado is going to be a little icky to start the season unless Pena goes beast mode.
     
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  19. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Yuli is the most likely, followed by Alvarez. Joe Perez is the top 1B prospect we have (he's not looked capable at 3B). Maybe Yainer Diaz or Korey Lee end up at 1B. We've had a terrible time with 1B prospects post Berkman. Wallace, Singleton, & Reed flopped miserably.
     
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  20. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    1B is probably one of the easier positions to fill and it's 2 years out. I'd guess the answer isn't on the roster or in the system. My sense is that 1B would be worse on Yordan's knees than left.
     

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