This will upset many of you.... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/12/red-sox-astros-interested-in-trevor-story.html Red Sox, Astros interested in Trevor Story "The Houston connection, for what it’s worth, would require the least moving parts to bring Story aboard. With Correa out of the picture for now, the Astros have a clear opening at shortstop that Story could fill. As is the case with the Red Sox, a Story signing may push the team past the first luxury tax threshold if he signs somewhere in the vicinity of MLBTR’s predicted six-year, $126MM guarantee. This may be a bridge too far then for Houston, though they’ll likely have plenty of financial wiggle room as soon as 2023 (to say nothing of a CBA that may change entirely). Financial complications aside, the Astros pursuit of Story may hinge on how ready they are to give top-ranked prospect Jeremy Peña a look. Peña dominated in a 30-game showing at Triple-A this year, swatting 10 home runs to go with a .287/.346/.598 slash line. The home run power is new, and certainly encouraging for Houston brass to consider, but still may not be enough to hand the starting shortstop job to a 24-year-old. The Astros remain the top dogs in the AL West but should expect the overall competitiveness of their division to increase next year. The drop-off from a 7.2 bWAR Carlos Correa to whatever it is a rookie can produce may be less palatable than simply turning to a steady producer like Story. With Story locked in alongside Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve through 2024, the team would then have the benefit of shopping Peña around for talent beyond the infield, or can simply hold onto him as a very enviable depth piece."
I would be totally fine giving Story $126M/6yrs, and I’d much rather see Houston do that than give Correa $300M+. Compare 2 free agents: Player 1: Age 29, 21.6 career fwar over 3136 career pa, projects for 3.6 fwar the following season Player 2: Age 31, 26.5 career fwar over 3567 career pa, projected for 3.9 fwar the following season Player 1 is Story. Player 2 is George Springer entering last offseason. Springer got $150M/6yrs and was 2 years older.
I agree. I was talking to the several Story haters that bring up his home/road splits every time his name is mentioned. Sign Story. Use Pena as one of the key pieces in a trade for Mullins. Mullins CF Altuve 2B Tucker RF Bregman 3B Alvarez DH Story SS Brantley LF Yuli 1B Maldonado C
I heard somewhere that he supposedly added about 10-20 pounds of muscle last offseason. If true that would make a lot of sense as to why he had a down year. The extra weight puts more strain on his hamstrings and makes him less agile. The smart thing would be to trim back down. He was hitting really well in 2018-19, no need to change that.
Story is a flawed player. You don't give out contracts that size to flawed players... 2 years and 25 total is my limit. I wouldn't want his salary blocking better players coming up... War isn't a catchall stat and isn't any more reliable than ops. Context matters...
There's also some people out there who think, as crazy as it sounds, Coors Field actually supressed his power. Baseball Savant backs that idea, he has a higher expected HR total at MMP. Coors has rather deep outfields IIRC, and I've seen a few Rockies fans comment that he hit a lot of deep fly balls that died on the track just short of the wall over the past year or so. TBH the more I think about it the more I've warmed up to a Story signing. I'm on board for 5 or even 6 years. $22M per sounds fair. He is from Texas (different part, but still) and would play for a contender in a state with no income tax, and the Rangers are now ostensibly off the board.
I miss cocky Bregman, when he would strut with swag to the batters box, hitting his bat on his back every step. Hopefully he’s fully healthy, this team is vastly different and improved with a healthy Alex. I’m sure he wants to play SS…I’m not against giving him a shot if health permits.
The Astros have been interested in Story for many months..... but some of this is likely posturing as well.
I think Story would be a great add, but if spending that much on a SS annually, I would prefer spending the slightly more AAV (I'm guessing $5-6M difference) on Correa and sucking up the extra years on Correa's contract to keep the AAV down. Rumors on Story makes me think bringing back Correa actually has a chance. Though, if we can't keep Correa, I'd be happy with Story.
WAR is a catch all stat. It is imperfect, but it is designed to take all factors of the game into account. For his career, his home OPS is .972 vs .752 on the road. While most players are better at home on the road during their careers, those numbers aren't usually that drastic, with the exception of Coors Field. Personally, I'm only interested in Correa if we are going to spend on a SS. Otherwise sign Andrelton Simmons or Freddy Galvis with the expectation that they will be replaced by Jeremy Pena during the season. We could go without signing any SS, but with Diaz's injury history and Pena having little pro experience after the cancelled 2020 and wrist injury this year, I think that would be a big risk. I think the smartest baseball move is to trust in Pena, but the heart wants Correa to stay. I'm still hoping for an opt-out style contract that keeps him for 2022 (and preferably 2023).
I don’t think it’s only a $5-6M difference in AAV. I’m guessing $8-9, which is the price of, say, a solid reliever, or can cover arb raises. I think Correa will eventually get $32M a year, wile Story could be had for $24M or so. Correa saw Seager get that monster contract, and I think the Cubs will probably pony up the cash since they seem to be aiming for a quick turnaround, and have payroll space. I agree with the idea of paying Story $22-24M a year for 5 or 6 years, and then including Pena as the centerpiece in a deal for Mullins, but that’s me. I am also high on Story’s potential HR numbers with the Crawford Boxes.
Story is someone that can hit lefty and righty starting pitching well but struggles against some specialists out of the pen from the right hand side. Some of his short comings can be hidden though, for example he is a very productive hitter sandwiched between really good hitters. Also there is some truth to his power being limited in Colorado. He isn't Carlos Correa, and never will be..... but he is a very good player and extends the offense.... especially if the Astros improve in other spots.
Carlos is asking for more than 5-6 million a year more than what the Astros would pay Story. He is asking for more than Lindor is getting from the Mets at this point........ So you are talking about 35+ million a year for a decade compared to 22-23 million over 6 years.
Maybe, it depends on a number of things but I agree with your general point. Some of it depends on how long Story is willing to wait before signing a contract.
Correa should be worth about $13M more next season than Story assuming Correa doesn't have a career year, and Story puts up an average Story year. If the Astros can get Story for $13M less in AAV and 4 years less, Story should be prioritized over Correa. If the AAV is within Odorizzi's salary and they can sign Story, the Astros should sign Correa, and if they need, dump Odorizzi.
The problem with Story is that its all guesswork. You're hoping his splits are artificial; you're hoping he becomes a better hitter away from Coors. But the reality is that we have no idea. With other free agents, you're making commitments based on what you've seen them do. With Story, you're making commitments based on what you hope he might be able to do. Seems like a lot of risk for a long-term free agent deal. As much as there are players that translated and adapted away from Coors, there are plenty that also just never did.
And this is why I would rather sign a defensive minded one year guy to hold it down until Peña is ready
Our history of Rockies additions isn’t great, especially our last MIF (Kaz Matsui IIRC)…Jason Jennings, over the hill Vinny Castillo, Was Preston Wilson in Colorado? I like the idea of adding Story at the right price, but also think maybe our money is better spent elsewhere or later if it costs 125mil. His struggles this past year can’t be overlooked.
