Honestly harden with this current team would have been fun 2 watch. Still doesn't change my mind that Simmons and iriving r bigger divas that will absolutely in no way net us a ring.
I want Chet or Jabari this year then maybe we can try for the play in next season. The question is does the ownership and front office go for play in this year if we beat the Nets and Bucks next week and our streak is still going?
What I think is that professional, competent and competitive environment is more important than the modest probability bump that a better draft position gives you. We have young talent and we have plenty of picks coming up, both ours and BRKNs. There is a good chance that we may get another Gianis Kawhi, Booker, Jokic, Mitchell (all drafted #13 or later) from these picks. Plus we have 6 talented young players already. I am against a rotten development culture only to improve draft position by a few spots. I am not against rebuilding.
There is a good chance that we may get another Gianis Kawhi, Booker, Jokic, Mitchell (all drafted #13 or later) from these picks. Wrong. This is rare as sht There is a good chance that we may get another Derrick rose, WB, Love, James harden, john wall, cousins, irving, davis, beal, lillard, embid, russel, porzingas, russell, towns, ingram, brown, tatum, donic, trae young, zion, ja morant, edwards, ball by being one of the shttiest team. Hitting a game changer player is more likely in the prime lottery position than where u r suggesting. Nba history has shown this over and over.
How can I pick choice #3: No one gives two shts what you think bc this team is ass and will have one of the 5 worst records regardless? In other news If I reeeallly hope we win a championship this year will it come true oh please oh please
If you are pro tank or pro play in, I need people to ask themselves or share: What is your plan to make this team an NBA champion or contender? Short term pain (a couple losing seasons for top picks) for longer term pleasure (years of championship contention or winning a title) Versus Short term pleasure (avoid pain of losing and get bounced as a play in team) for longer term pain (Never getting a superstar core in draft or free agency, treadmill team) Delaying gratification in other words. Taking out emotions, how can we logically become a championship team with your plan?
Do you think the people that don’t already realize this will now all of a sudden be like “Eureka it all makes sense now” lol
The chance of those picks turning into stars is rather low. The Rockets tried this in the early-mid 2010s. The Results? 2010: Patrick Patterson (#14), Borderline starter 2011: Marcus Morris (#14), High-End Role player Traded for Notatas Montejunas (#20), Bench player Nikola Mirotic (#23), Traded to chichago, Starter Chandler Parsons (#38), High-end role player 2012: Jeremy Lamb (#12), Traded for Harden, bench player Royce White (#16), Bust Terrence Jones (#18), Starter 2013: Isaiah Canaan (#34), borderline-NBA player 2014: Clint Capela (#25), High-end role player Looking back on it, the Rockets didn't do that badly with their mid-firsts. We got a number of cheap role players that saved us money so we could sign Dwight Howard and trade for CP3. The front office knew what it was doing (except for Royce White lmao), but often times, the talent isn't there. If predicting NBA futures were so easy that you could reliably select draft steals, then there wouldn't be any draft steals as all the hidden gems would go top 5.
"We couldn't beat the Warriors with James Harden and Chris Paul. I know, we'll beat them with Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons!"
I've done the numbers and have them somewhere, but will quote from memory. Chance of an All-Star between #10-20 is around 10%. So not that rare. Chance of an All-Star between #20-60 is around 1-2%. Pretty rare, but not impossible. Front Office competence is a factor, however, this is not entirely random. Morey, despite all the glorification never drafted an All-Star in a 15-year career. Nothing spectacular as GM. During that time GSW had Draymond at #41, and Klay #11, (in addition to Curry at #7) So if you want top talent draft, position helps a bit, but GM competence is also very important. In other words, still a crapshoot with too many variables. It's not worth creating rotten culture and becoming laughingstock. It's just not worth it.
The $500 dollar bet on who has a better record between rockets and Spurs with my roommate says play in
This shouldn't even be a question. And this is exactly why you need to trade wood and Gordon yesterday. These fake winning streaks are going to tempt idiots like Tilman Fertitta to make dumb and short sighted win now moves. In a year where there could be a historic draft class, five game winning streaks are unacceptable, especially when involving teams we are competing with for top picks.
Alright, I know people are passionate about this. So I'll start bringing numbers and supporting evidence. Although there are rare exceptions, (04 Pistons etc.) typically you need a superstar or MVP caliber player to win a championship. You also need at least one star or superstar to typically attract others in free agency to build a superteam to win a title (LeBron, Curry, Durant etc.) If you have facts or numbers that say otherwise please share, I don't care about being wrong I just want to get to the truth of the mattter to win a chip. Here is statistical evidence of getting an all star per draft pick. I couldn't find one for finding an MVP caliber player yet, but looking. What Are the Odds to Become an All-Star for Each Draft Pick? Figure 1: Probability of drafting an All-Star player (with at least one appearance) as a function of draft-pick order. The uncertainty on the y-axis is purely statistical. The red-line corresponds to an exponential fall fit performed on the data. NBA DRAFT-ALL-STAR CORRELATIONS "Another thing we can see from the graph is that star potential goes down very quickly after the first few selections. Based on the logistic regression, the #1 overall pick has a 64% chance of becoming an All-Star. By the time pick 5 comes around, that probability is more than halved to 30%. Pick #10 has roughly half the star potential of pick #5, at 16%. The situation is even dicier from here. Historically, picks in the back half of the first round become All-Stars only 8% of the time. Hoping to snag the next Nikola Jokic in the 2nd round? Well, only about 3% of these 2nd rounders reached All-Stardom. Of course, the All-Star threshold is not the only marker of player value. There are plenty of extremely useful players in the NBA who have never made an All-Star team. Ask the Rockets how important P.J. Tucker has been for them. Getting a player who will someday be a league-average starter is extremely valuable at, say, pick #15. But the NBA is a league built around stars. The quickest path from watching the playoffs on the couch to advancing far enough to be beat by the Warriors is to acquire at least one franchise-changing contributor. Every team is hoping on draft night that they will snag an All-Star of tomorrow. But for selections made after the top 2 or 3, that is unlikely to happen." How Likely Is Each Draft Pick to Someday Make an All-Star Team?
While I voted for the first and do generally think it would be a little pointless to sneak into the play-in tournament with a team this young and inexperienced, I also think the "tank for Chet/Banchero" crowd have gone a little overboard the last couple of weeks actively rooting against the team winning games. I think both sides need to acknowledge something: this is not a good basketball team, but you can still enjoy watching them play and root for their success on a given night. There's no shame in wanting them to maximize the value of their draft pick next summer, nor in actually enjoying watching the team you support have some success. Like with the Green vs. Mobley and pro-Green vs. anti-Green crowd, I don't understand why everything in this forum has to be so black and white at times. Everything in this country is so polarizing in 2021. But we're Rockets fans, dammit. We're here for the same reasons, and we all have the same goal if we disagree on the best route to getting there. Go Rockets!
Even the mighty onimitpent Warriors had whiffs. Ekpe Udoh at #6 the year after drafting Curry. Kuminga and Wiseman look pedestrian. Not terrible, but not great either. So much of the NBA draft is pure luck. If scouting was an exact science, tanking would become mandatory to become good. Regardless, you're much better off picking high if you want top players. Best player in each draft of the last 20 years by Win Shares, with draft position: 2021: Evan Mobley (#3) 2020: LaMelo Ball (#3) 2019: Zion Williamson (#1) 2018: Luka Doncic (#3) 2017: Bam Adabayeo (#14), Tatum isn't far behind. 2016: Domantas Sabonis (#11), Simmions would be ahead if he played this year. 2015: Karl Anthony-Towns (#1) 2014: Nikola Jokic (#41) 2013: Giannis Antetokounmpo (#15), actually Rudy Gobert, but Giannis will surpass him this year. 2012: Damian Lillard (#6), Anthony Davis a close second, will pass him up this year or the next. 2011: Jimmy Butler (#30) 2010: Paul George (#10) 2009: James Harden (#3) 2008: Russell Westbrook (#4) 2007: Kevin Durant (#2) 2006: LaMarcus Alderadge (#2) 2005: Chris Paul (#4) 2004: Dwight Howard (#1) 2003: LeBron James (#1) 2002: Amar'e Stoudemire (#9) 2001: Pau Gasol (#2) 11 of 20 selected in the top 3. 13 of 20 in the top 4.
