Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

I interpret this to mean that the front office has an understanding of his expectations (presumably in contract length) and isn’t willing to do what it takes to meet them. If market conditions are such that his expectations change (fewer years), they have considered those scenarios in their planning. At this point there is nothing to indicate his expectations have changed.

 

The midpoint between Houston’s $160M/5yr offer and Correa’s $340M/10yr asking price would be $250M/8yrs. I would be surprised if either side went for that but who knows. My total guess is that Correa either gets his $300M+ from another team or resigns with Houston on a 4-5 year deal with opt outs.

One thought I have had is if a massively front-loaded contract might work, enabling Houston to go WAY over the tax in year one but then dramatically reduce his AAV for the rest of the deal. Something like $300M/10yr with $75M in the 1st year with the $225M/9yrs only being a $25M AAV.

 

The whole thing is sort of weird and works out OK for the Dodgers.

He's an elite player when available, so if he is activated again, they are paying fair market or better for him. And since teams are likely to avoid him, he's incentivized not to exercise his opt-out, so they don't have to pay the $15MM buyout and instead get him another year for just an extra $17MM or whatever the difference is.

If he is suspended, they get out of dealing with that mess.

 

Given the uncertainty of what could happen post lockout with luxury tax thresholds, total free agent money pool, and possibility of no paychecks for a prolonged period of time... I really thought Correa would have motivation to secure something now (even if it wasn't what he truly wanted).

On the one hand, he does have supreme confidence in himself and his abilities... on the other hand, there are going to be more unknowns with labor negotiations and I presume all existing signed deals will be grandfathered/protected from being impacted by the new system.

 

This doesn’t strike me as a meet in the middle thing. From everything he’s said or done, it seems like total value and length of contract are Correa’s biggest priorities. The meet in the middle at 8/250 doesn’t do that.

If he doesn’t think there is the big contract out there now, I could see him going with a short really high AAV contract like Mad Max. He’s got 120M+ in the bank, and would be hitting free agency again in three years in what might be a better market. Compared to an 8/250 offer he’d only have to get a contract of 5/130 or better which seems pretty likely at age 30. At 30 if he could get more than 7/200 he’d potentially even come out ahead at the end of 10 years vs signing a 10 year contract now.

I’m sure he’d much rather do a 10+ year now, but depending on how the CBA works out and what teams are willing to commit to right now, a shorter contract with 40M+ AAV could look appealing and there are probably a lot more teams willing to do that.

 

10/330. Surpasses what Seager just got. Completely front loaded

2022: 45
2023: 45 (Brantley, Pressly, Yuli FAs)
2024: 40 (Verlander, Odorizzi, Baez)
2025: 40 (opt out) (Altuve, Bregman)
2026: 35 (opt out in contract each year moving forward)
2027: 30
2028: 30
2029: 25
2030: 20
2031: 20

Keeps the core together at least three more years and guarantees him 130 million over those three years, will be the highest paid player in the game. Would also allow him to be a free agent again at age 30, which might allow him to make more money, or might allow him to avoid going through a rebuild depending on many many factors between now and then. For the Astros, they commit long term BUT those 25 and 20 million seasons at the end of that deal would likely be the salaries of mid range players by that point in time

 

Agree they won't likely have interest in Carlos and partly for those reasons

But they are going to have to add a couple of starting pitchers if they want to be considered one of the best rosters in baseball next year

 

I 100% agree. I actually think the Astros could get it done for less too with this type of creativity. But they have to get out of their current range to make anything of this sort work. If they really set on something in the 5/160 range, I think they are just too far apart.

 

Seems like a deal with an opt out is going to be his best option, depending on the CBA. I guess at this point he's waiting to see if a new CBA might change the market dramatically.

 

He might be hoping for an increase in the luxury tax which would let him come back to Crane and argue the Astros can keep him while staying under the new cap more easily.

 

I'm cool with this. Crane has to be okay with being firmly in the LT for the next 2 years and resetting in 2024 when Verlander is up.

 

Urias and Buehler are elite. Gonsolin had a so-so year but he's still a career 2.85 ERA, 1.09 WHIP guy with a good pedigree. If they think Bauer is coming back at all this season, that's a top-4 better than anyone else's best group. Dustin May is another excellent young pitcher who's recovering from Tommy John and could be back before the end of the season. And they have two top-100 prospects who could make the rotation this season - Pepiot is already at AAA. David Price at 36 may be fine to hold down the 5th spot until one of those prospects is ready.

That said, I can see them bringing back Kershaw. He's meant a lot to that organization over the years.

 

Crane also has a much better idea than any of us about exactly what the tax line will be. Obviously it hasn't been agreed to, but he would know where that ranks on owners list of musts in the negotiations and what their give and take is on it

 

I would be shocked if MLB let Bauer back in the game. NBA/NFL might be ok with that kind of person playing in their league, I can't see MLB letting it happen though

 

Short of the victims story falling apart, he is done in the big leagues..... he already wasn't well liked and in this modern environment he won't be forgiven or excused....

 

I wonder if the Mets loading up will affect what the Yankees do?

 

The Yankees are a little less reactionary after George Steinbrenner died. The Yankees also keep some version of a budget.... but their GM also made it clear that they intend to address their SS situation. My best guess is that they do not like the current market costs and length of contracts for SS because they have two good SS prospects not far away. If there was a team that would be a fall back place for Correa on a short term deal it is the Yankees that would likely offer one of the shortstops on the market a high AAV for a 1-2 year deal.

There is a lot of "ammo" still out there..... teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Astros and possibly Tigers and Rangers (among others) have money to spend and intend to make moves....

 

If you are going to go 10/330 you don’t need to give him a player opt out after year 3 and front load it like that.

 

I agree with that. But what if it was a team opt-out? Correa gets a headline setting contract like he wants, and the team isn't locked in to a long-term deal if they have regrets after 3 or 4 years.