Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

I see the Yankees, Phillies, Angels, and Astros with glaring glaring holes at SS. 3 of those 4 teams have shown the willingness to drop historic money on a big contract. Correa is getting his $300M+. Not gonna be from Houston.

 

I don't expect the Phillies to be involved after seeing several articles. They owe Gregorious 15 million this year and that contract is nearly untradable without adding prospects and/or eating significant money. Their number 1 prospect is also a SS that was told to get ready to be in the big leagues next season. The GM said their priorities are outfield and bullpen. I expect them to go for more affordable players in the outfield like Conforto, Bryant, Schwarber, or Castellano. They are also trying to land Corey Knebel for the pen.

 

When asked about Correa

 

While it's nice to see something that optimistic, Buster likely doesnt have any actual information. He just reading the room like anybody here can do.

From a need and logical standpoint, the best offers should come from us. But we still have no evidence that anybody in our organization thinks going big on a contract is a good idea.

 

Do you take Correa or Story and Rondon?

 

First time I've heard this in the media... and Olney is plugged in. Encouraging.

Going into this we all thought the Tigers, Mets, Rangers, and Yankees would be the top candidates and these teams appear to be moving in different directions (or already have).

 

Barring a late entry, Correa might have to settle for a shorter term contract with a high AAV. Hope the Astros are willing partners in that sort of construct. Would be great to have 3 or 4 more years of Correa as this iteration of the 'stros finishes off their run.

Edit: Astros, Red Sox (a concern because of Cora), Yankees (favorites) are all still in on Correa per John Granato on the radio this morning and he thinks it'll drag out until the Spring.

 

Astros can always offer more net wages then east coast/west coast teams.

 

Yup, and that will factor into it per his interview from a few weeks ago. What really hurts is Seager signing in Texas, a no income tax state. The same contract in LA would have helped the Astros pursuit more given the number needed for take home parity.

 

Hopefully Correa and his agent will realize that he has a chance to make MORE (inflation included) than any of the current FA’s by doing a higher AAV contract now and getting another one within the next 5 years.

In the end, this is the pathway the Astros are counting on, and it may be one that team Correa has to settle for given the current market (unless the Mets or Angels just go FU mode).

 

If the remaining teams only want short term contracts of 5-7 years for Correa, Astros have a chance. We can offer more net income for him.

 

This is the point I have been making as well. If Correa truly believes in himself, and if the insane inflation in baseball salaries continues, then the way to fully max his career earnings is NOT to sign a 10-year contract, but to sign a 4-5 year contract and then do it all over again at age 32... if the salary escalations continue, then in 2027 he might sign a 5-year $250M contract and end up well over $400M in 10-year contract value, instead of $300M. It all comes down to his belief in his abilities and his health.

 

If Correa’s market really isn’t there, and he’s suddenly open to a short term deal, at some point it probably does make sense for Houston to think shorter term, and abandon the idea of staying under the tax (which would mean embracing the idea that at some point down the road they’re going to have to field lower payrolls for a few years). If you’re going to give up draft picks to bring back Correa for 4-5 years, it probably makes sense to go further and spend even more. In which case guys like Bryant or Conforto should also be in play, along with maybe Rodon or Stroman.

The original $160M/5yrs offer might still be worth considering for Correa if it includes opt outs every year.

All that said, I still expect some team to step up and give him at least $250M.

 

I keep seeing the Dodgers and... I don't see it happening, like, at all. Trea Turner is their SS and he is elite. And they have Gavin Lux to play 2B, a highly-touted - and cheap - prospect, which will help them address their real issue: pitching.

Never say never, but I would be absolutely FLOORED if the Dodgers signed Correa - and that's before you factor in the scandal.

 

Dodgers biggest issues are that their “best” hitter (Bellinger) basically died last year and their “best” pitcher (Bauer) is rapey. It’s kind of hard for them to prioritize their offseason needs not knowing at all what they’re going to get from those 2 guys. But I agree with you that their best move is to assume Bauer is out forever which would mean SP becomes by far their biggest need, much moreso than SS.

 

Just hate to see that.

Dodgers are on the hook for $45M in 2022 for Bauer. I think I will shed a little tear.

 

If he's suspended, they don't owe that money.

 

It's hard to see him taking that offer, even if he can opt out next year. While an AAV of $32MM isn't bad, we have to keep in mind these next several years are his prime years. In a 10/300 deal, he's really making $40-$45MM for the next several years and more like $15-20MM for the backend years. So to take $32MM for even one of his prime years with all the risk and no payout on the backend would be pretty insane for him. If he takes a short term deal, I'd think he'd be making a minimum of $40MM+ the next few years. Anything less and it doesn't make much sense.

 

if only both sides willing to compromise and meet in the middle, say 7, 8 year deal?

 

You wonder how long the paid administrative leave is going to last.

Either way, I don't think the Dodgers want another scandal-plagued player. The Dodgers still have the 2nd highest payroll on the books next season and probably still have the best roster, top to bottom.