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Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by DaBeard, Nov 6, 2021.

  1. Rockets34Legend

    Rockets34Legend Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  2. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    10/$325 is laughable. That is a ridiculous overpay.

    Baez just signed for 6/$140. In that context, 5/$160 is only laughable from a duration standpoint - and, even then, it's within the market: you can't let the dumbass Rangers set the market. If the Astros offer 8/$256.... I think that might get it done. Or, at the very least, it's an offer that should satisfy fans that wanted the Astros to make a legitimate run at him. IMO.
     
  3. Rileydog

    Rileydog Contributing Member

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    You really have to wonder about the extent to which the sign stealing scandal has impacted CC’s free agency. I mean, he is looking for $300MM plus. As team execs consider this, you’re talking about offering “face of the franchise” money to a guy who was the defiant poster child of the Astros. Not simien level lots of money, or Baez level really good player money. But face of the franchise money. Decision at the ownership level money.

    Thats not to argue that Correa isn’t as good or better than Seager. I’m not talking about the merits. There are a small handful of MLB players who have $300MM long term, face of the franchise deals. It’s a huge move.
     
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  4. Elienator

    Elienator Member

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    Given the Baez contract and the both the Semien and Segear contracts were from the Rangers and larger than expected, I think it’s fair to say the Rangers are overpaying compared to what other teams would and that alone won’t set the market. That said, Correa is still going to wind up closer to Seager than Baez.

    It might take a while, but I don’t see Correa backing off a 10/300M+ demand at this point.

    If he’s back on the Astros, it’s because the Rangers were the only team willing to spend like that and both sides decide a short, high AAV (like 3 years for a total of 120-140M) is beneficial to both sides. That might be enough to make him feel not too much risk with the ability to still hit 300+ over the next 10 years. The Astros might be willing to spend a lot in the short term without the big commitment.
     
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  5. Elienator

    Elienator Member

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    Personally, I don’t think execs give much of a crap about that and fans of whatever team he goes to will suddenly have collective amnesia.
     
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  6. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I don't doubt that's Correa's outlook. But what team is going to offer that *and* provide him the opportunity to win? That pool is shrinking.

    I hope that's the Astros new focus: offering CC a Schrezer-like deal that just overwhelms him with a $40-$45 AAV for 2-3 years.
     
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  7. Major

    Major Member

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    Keep in mind that Correa is a better player than Baez (as are Semien and Seager). That said, I agree that 8/$256 is reasonable and could get it done - but that's $100MM more than the offer that I'm saying is laughable. It doesn't change anything there. People say "well, the Astros weren't going to bid against themselves" - while true, it doesn't mean you make an offer that there's a 0% chance of anyone accepting. You still have to make good faith offers to have them not considered laughable.
     
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  8. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I would guess there's zero impact. Seager chased a paycheck. He signed with a team that hasn't won 80+ games in five years, has no pitching, and hasn't developed a prospect since, like, Juan Gonzalez. They'll be better - as it would hard to be worse - but that is still not a very good team.

    Every indication is that Correa's standards are much higher: he wants money *and* deep October runs. That pool is considerably smaller. Most of the teams that throw around ridiculous contracts are bad. Good teams generally avoid that, for a variety of reasons.

    I would guess the Rangers would've been all over offering Correa 10/$325. My guess? He'd told them he wasn't interested. (Remember, he seems tight-ish with ARod. They certainly act tight in all those post ALCS championship interviews. And you think ARod didn't tell him to run?)
     
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  9. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I disagree. I think $32MM AAV - which is right in line with Seager's deal, btw - minus the years, obviously - isn't laughable. It sets the expectation that, if moving forward, $32/AAV is that standard, you just have to agree on the length.

    So they put themselves in the conversation without overcommitting before he tested a market no one had a handle on.

    ETA: Again, the Seager deal is bananas. Seimien getting $25 AAV; Baez getting $23 AAV. $32 AAV is a more than fair offer for Correa, prior to the Seager deal.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Reassessing Correa’s market:

    Out: Rockies, Pirates, Orioles, Rangers, Royals, Athletics, Reds, Rays.

    Very unlikely: Diamondbacks, Tigers, Nationals, Giants, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Padres, Mets.

    Potential mystery teams: Cubs, Mariners, Red Sox, Braves, White Sox, Dodgers

    Dark horses: Twins, Marlins, Cardinals

    Should be involved: Yankees, Angels, Phillies, Astros
     
  11. SamCassell

    SamCassell Contributing Member

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    You’ve even stated above that the Astros should offer a short term, Scherzer like contract for big dollars. The next 5 years of Correa are very valuable. The 5 after, much less so. $32m AAV for 5 years is a much worse offer than $32m for 10. 5 years at Scherzer’s AAV might get it done.
     
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  12. The Real Shady

    The Real Shady Contributing Member

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    I think it's possible. At least when it comes to the Yankees and Dodgers.
     
  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    It is just really hard to envision the Yankees going through an offseason like this without signing one major major free agent. Correa, Freeman, Bryant, and Story are the only players left who would qualify. I’ll be very surprised if the Yankees don’t sign one of those 4 players.
     
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  14. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    Kind of wish we just signed Baez to the deal he took...
     
  15. steveng125

    steveng125 Member

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    I honestly don’t think the yankees will sign Correa after his comments about they’re so called legend jeter. I kind of think Correa made those comments to let them know he wasn’t interested in them right off the bat.
     
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  16. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    I think the Mets will be in consideration more-so than most suspecting… and I do think there’s mutual interest there.
     
  17. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    Former Astros Exec Kevin Goldstein on Correa:

     
  18. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    Right. Remember: the Astros made that offer before he hit an unpredictable market. And they flat-out nailed the AAV. They had no idea anyone would offer 10/$325.

    Now, with the market having shape, I would absolutely be on board with a 5/$200 (or 4/$160) and let him go after that.
     
  19. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Where, though, will Correa get his money? And where will Trevor Story, the other remaining free agent among the big five free-agent shortstops, land? Báez is a Tiger. Corey Seager agreed to a $325 million deal with the Rangers. Correa, according to sources, remains in contact with the Astros, but their last reported offer to him was for $160 million. The Yankees want a new shortstop, but a number of their players view Correa with contempt because he was part of the Astros’ illegal sign stealing in 2017 and ‘18, and New York does not seem to be playing at the top of the shortstop market, anyway.

    The Mariners, publicly committed to keeping J.P. Crawford at short, likely would be out on Correa but not necessarily Story, who could end up their second or third baseman and might even be an option for some clubs in center field (Seattle also has interest in Kris Bryant). At 29, Story is the second oldest of the free-agent shortstop group, behind Marcus Semien, 31. Like Báez, he figures to come at a much lower cost than Correa, who at 27 is the youngest member of the group.

    Correa, who is committed to staying at short, is a better defender than Seager, though not as accomplished as a hitter. Injuries, including back trouble, limited him to 75 games in 2019, but he has been more durable the past two seasons, playing 58 of 60 games in ‘20 and 148 in ‘21. The problem he faces is that few clubs are willing to pay one player $300 million or more.

    The Dodgers, after losing Seager and facing the loss of Trea Turner to free agency after this season, could turn to Correa as their long-term solution at short. Their clubhouse might be more welcoming than the Yankees — it will have a much different look than it did when the team lost the 2017 World Series to the Astros, with Seager gone and Chris Taylor, Clayton Kershaw, Joe Kelly and Kenley Jansen also free agents. But starting pitching is the Dodgers’ priority, and if they go big on an offensive free agent they might prefer first baseman Freddie Freeman as a left-handed-hitting replacement for Seager.

    The Red Sox also have a long-term question at short, where Xander Bogaerts can opt out after the 2022 season. Manager Alex Cora worked closely with Correa as the Astros’ bench coach in 2017 and also as general manager for Team Puerto Rico in the ‘17 World Baseball Classic. But the Red Sox seem disinclined to make a major investment in one player — see, Mookie Betts. Also: Bogaerts is one of the Red Sox’s leaders, and likely would be unhappy to change positions in a potential walk year.

    So, which team will it be?

    The Cardinals, who could displace Paul DeJong, would be an excellent fit, but would they add a third high-priced position player to go with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt? The Phillies, likewise, would benefit from upgrading on Didi Gregorius. But they, too, already are paying big money to two position players, Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto. And, like the Cardinals, they are perhaps more focused on pitching needs.

    The Blue Jays, who have committed $251 million to José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Yimi Garcia this month, would need to move Bo Bichette off short if they signed Correa. The Angels have a specific need at short, but would be better served devoting their resources to pitching rather than Correa or Freeman (not that much starting pitching remains on the open market). The Twins, too, face a vacancy at short, but it seems doubtful they would go to Correa’s desired price.

    Make no mistake: Some team will sign Correa, and for major dollars. Maybe the Nationals or Cubs would want him to be the centerpiece of their rebuilding program. Maybe some other team that currently does not appear to be a fit will trade their shortstop to create a spot. But the Tigers were the most obvious fit. And now the Tigers’ opening is gone.
     
  20. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

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    Swap Angels with Dodgers. I think it's going to be the Angels.
     

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