Yo! Can y'all please argue Lunhow vs Click vs Castro vs Odo in another thread? Relitigate our past moves and past GMs somewhere else, if you could... This thread is about the present and immediate future.
well… I was dead wrong here. Now it’s very possible we see Correa sign somewhere today before deadline at midnight.
There just doesn’t seem to be any smoke around him anywhere. That said- you don’t want to be left without a chair. He’s playing a dangerous game with everyone else coming off the board so quickly.
why was Seager picked over Correa? Is Correa demanding the largest contract of all time? Are teams afraid that Correa’s back will be a problem years 6-10 of the contract? What team is left to throw mega money at Correa? Dodgers have Trea Turner, they aren’t doing a 10 year deal. Yankees don’t appear to be wanting another large contract on the payrolll and they still have to deal with the Judge contract. Astros would likely go to 6 years max. what other team would throw the hammer down and sign a player to a massive 10 year deal?
Well they are allegedly not done and may be targeting Kershaw. It would be a little ridiculous for them to catch the Astros in payroll given where they are in their competitive window but maybe they get within $50M.
$140M with an opt out is a significant overpay for Baez. He’s young so at least he will likely be decent defensively throughout the deal, but he’s a career 103 wRC+ hitter with major strikeout issues. Almost no upside in that deal imho. One takeaway from the frenzy of the last couple days is that I think it’s clear the new CBA will raise the luxury tax threshold. So the bad news there is that Correa is likely to get his $300M and it won’t be from Houston. I would predict the Yankees, Phillies, or Angels. And further, other free agents who might interest Houston (Conforto, Bryant, Taylor) may be more expensive than expected. On the other hand, while free agency becomes more competitive and represents an even worse value than ever, Houston’s internal assets are seeing their value go up. Suddenly Odorizzi’s deal doesn’t look burdensome at all. Same for Baez. Either of those deals could likely be unloaded now without having to eat money or include prospects. And Houston now might be looking at $30-40M remaining under the tax instead of $10-20M, so they may have more flexibility than we all assume. I still expect Houston to add a good bat before the season starts. Whether that’s a free agent like Conforto or Pham or a trade target like Mullins or Reynolds. Which to me still represents a very good offseason, and if they are able to further add another top SP then it will have been a home run offseason for Click/Crane.
They may not sign Correa but I find it hard to believe that they would be altogether opposed to signing such a deal. I mean, we're in an age where that poverty franchise over in Willets Point is spending >$250M.
Adding Mullins or Reynolds would be a huge W for the off-season. Yes, you’d lose a lot of prospect value in the system but with having all of our draft picks, international FA’s, Click would be able to replenish that area pretty quickly. Plus, you’d be able to maintain plenty of payroll flexibility moving forward- which could go a long way to keeping Tucker and Yordan locked in long term.
People (including me) said the same about Harper/Machado being crazy to wait until Feb/March or whatever it was when they were shooting for their big deals. Back then, most free agents had already signed so teams' budgets were largely filled - yet they still found their deals. Right now, only a tiny fraction of overall free agents have been signed so far so there's plenty of total money still to be spent ( https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2021-22-free-agents-by-position ). These things tend to work themselves out and star players don't tend to end up being the ones that get squeezed out. Maybe Correa will overplay his hand. Or maybe he already has a handshake deal with someone. But it would be pretty rare and I don't think we're close to that point yet. Edit: He likely also always has the option of signing a short-term high AAV deal and just doing this again in a year or two, so he has a nice backup option out there. I can't see the Yankees or Dodgers passing on a deal like that if it came down to it.
I don't see the draw of guys like Conforto and Pham. They aren't very good COFs and the Astros don't seem that interested in downgrading OF defense at two positions by moving Tucker to CF and bringing in an average/below average COF to pair with the below average Brantley.
An outfield of Pham/Conforto, Tucker, and Brantley isn’t ideal. But if the only alternatives are massively overpaying for a SS in free agency, giving up major major prospects to get a guy like Mullins or Reynolds, or opening the season with both McCormick and Pena in the everyday lineup, it makes sense, assuming Pham and Conforto are relatively affordable (which is a big assumption). Having a very good defensive OF (like Meyers or McCormick) on the bench to sub into any game in which Houston has a late inning lead lessens the downside of that scenario.
Question: if Correa signs somewhere else don't we get another draft pick? Also if we sign someone who refused a QO we give up a pick? Does that not make us even?
This is a good point. Between the extra pick for Correa and the international haul they have lined up, they will likely add 3-4 prospects who will slot in the top 10-15 in their system. So between that and the glut of upper level pitching depth, they can certainly afford to make at least one major trade this offseason.
It's just odd that Tucker got less than 30 innings in CF this past season and makes it seem they don't have much interest moving him there. On top of that the difference between McCormick in CF with his elite glove and Conforto in RF is what, maybe half a win and at the same time you're also worsening CF defense? They may talk themselves into it if they're too cheap/scared to do anything else but it doesn't seem like it would improve the team very much.
Pham has a UZR/150 in CF of 0.0. McCormick is at 3.4. So the expectation would be that over a full season Pham’s lesser CF defense would cost 3-4 runs compared to McCormick. But it would likely be less than that due to the ability to sub late in games (blowouts or when the Astros have a lead); my guess is it’d be closer to 1-2 runs. So the question is does adding Phams bat offset those <5 runs you’d be allowing by putting him in CF. I think so.
I don't like UZR much to begin with but you can't cite UZR/150 on a 680 inning sample. That stat takes freaking forever to stabilize. DRS and OAA both have McCormick well above what that UZR/150 value indicates.
I doubt Click is sold on Siri. The Astros have 3 OFs currently with one of them likely needing regular rest days. Taylor is the last decent CF on the market. If Taylor signs elsewhere, the Astros are looking at either adding a corner and moving Chas to the 4th OF role, or sign a 4th OF and keep McCormick starting. I think the drop off from Chas to most 4th OFs may be big as anyone better that signs will likely pick a place they will start. While Conforto doesn't make me jump for joy, I expect the Astros to try to kick a bunch of tires to get the best free agent OF they can whether at CF or a corner. Conforto isn't Bryant, but the list of guys between Bryant and Conforto left as OF free agents is probably very short.
