Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

This was inevitable as far as I'm concerned. Once they failed to resign Correa last offseason I assumed he was gone. The only big SS left once Correa goes are Baez and Story. I'd rather roll the dice on Pena/Leon.

 

They aren't an 88 loss team. Let's stop.

 

I'm all for teams spending even when they aren't likely to win the WS and obviously these deals make them more competitive than they were before.

Their pitching seems like it will still be a problem and they haven't really shown the ability to develop players. They will continue to have some problems if they can't develop players (particularly with so much money committed to a few guys), so from a value per dollar standpoint you could definitely argue this was not the best set of moves.

 

Correa is gone. Crane can’t compete

 

Pitching will be a problem for them next year, even with the Jon Gray signing. But moves like these are good for the Rangers, good for division competitiveness and good for baseball.

They won't be expected to win the division but the gap is closing. The division is tougher and the Astros can't suffer a long Bregman DL stint, a Brantley knee or hammy issue, another Yordan knee problem, losing Correa, etc. These are all things that happened last year and we were able to survive because the division wasn't good. It's better now and Astros will have to make more moves going forward. A WC team could come from the AL West this year.

 

I can see that and dedicate resources at the deadline for an upgrade if they don't suffice.

 

They aren’t?

 

They paid two shortstops top dollar and signed a talented pitcher that they hope is the next Kevin Gausman/Robbie Ray.

They've spent all this money, and yet have serious question marks throughout their pitching staff and lineup, but I guess we know they'll have a good DP combo?

 

None of this will pay immediate dividends. But unlike the Angels and their 1-yr Syndergaard deal, these deals don't need to. They lock up various positions for many years and now the Rangers can focus on filling a smaller number of holes in other ways. Getting rid of questionmarks is an underrated part of building a contender - part of Astros' consistent success these last many years is that they've had so many positions where they just reliably plug and play players without worrying about upgrading or tinkering every year.

 

Crane can’t/won’t compete because it’s the right thing to do. I can’t blame him.

 

That might be the floor for the next 5 seasons while winning the division could be the ceiling if we want to talk about range of outcomes.

 

Has this method of team building truly worked?

 

It's not about next year, these long term contracts are about 2023 and beyond. When Altuve is two years older, Gurriel is on the cusp of retirement with Verlander, Brantley is gone, etc.

 

They’re closer to the 2006-2009 Astros than the current versions.

 

Having 70 million dollars tied to 2 players, who may not be close to worth it in 3 years is the exact opposite of what you should do when you have zero known commodities.

The Astros established their cheap core, then filled the gaps externally once they knew what the knowns were. The Rangers are building a majestic foyer without having any clue what the rest of the house is gonna look like.

 

Rangers probably aren't done. I bet they add a pitcher like Kershaw or Stroman. They have more money to spend.

 

With Seager that would make some sense.

With Semien & Gray? That's a weird strategy.

 

$24MM certainly helps in the TOR shopping.

 

They could add Kyle Seager to play next to his brother, trade some pieces for Luis Castillo, sign Kershaw and Stroman and be like... ok we ready to play.

Astros better tread careful... if they feel like signing Correa is the move... do it.

 

But they’d literally be spending just to spend. No depth, Limited upside on current performers (with plenty of downside), and they’re in a division where the class of it still has a 3 year window of being elite.