Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

A year ago very few people thought he would get $200M, much less $300M. He was coming off a season where he was an average hitter and was only worth 0.8 fwar in 58 games. I probably would have predicted something like $180M/5yrs. But he had a career season in 2021 which had a major impact on his value.

For now I would predict something like $280M/8yrs, but anything between $220M and $310M wouldn’t shock me.

 

Did we sign Correa yet?

 

At this point I have zero idea where Correa will sign. Going to be really interesting to watch it play out. Been a very fascinating and unpredictable offseason already with so many major free agents signing so soon, and I think the next 3 days is going to be busy too.

 

I don’t think any team would have offered Correa 7/250 before last season. Until last season, he had not fulfilled his potential (or most of his potential, if one thinks he is capable of more offense and a MVP year). He had question marks re health, durability, consistency and performing up to his tools. Last season answered these questions, lowered his perceived risk profile, and raised the band of expected career trajectory.

 

I agree with you about his durability, but i also feel this team had enough information on Correa about his defense and offense to make a better effort to talk about an extension sooner than this year. We know they talked about an extension prior to the season when McCullers got his. I love McCullers, but he got paid with a lot of health concerns. But I could be wrong as well because whose to say the Astros didnt approach him sooner. I'm only going off what has been shared publicly.

Correa like the other free agent SS believe they can get Lindor money. These guys have to find a team willing to pay that type of money and I don't see it.

Personally, I love Correa for what he brings to this team. I do not think he is worth $300 million. I feel he is somewhere between $225 to $250 million area. I don't think it closes the window on this team, but it puts a lot of pressure on guys like Pena to bring at least 75% of what Correa brings today.

 

I picture Carlos looking like Tony Montana from "Scarface" kicked back in a hot tub with a gold chain around his neck smoking a big fat cigar saying...

"Come on, man! What you got? You gonna f*ck with me? I'm Carlos f*cking Correa! You want some? What about you? Come and get it!"

Dude needs to take a chill pill and sign already.

 

At this point the Astros should offer 6-186 mil and be done. Thats 31 mil a year.

 

Yankees are into Corey Seager allegedly

We'll see what Correa does.

Astros ripple effect will be Aledmys Diaz plays SS until Jeremy Pena Super 2 ends and gets called up to the Astros.

 

I'm guessing super 2 is moot with the next CBA.

 

Correa will get his 10 year deal.
Was hoping Astros could get Correa at 7 years 245 but doesn’t look like that now.

 

Semien gets $175M over 7 years... and posted a 7.3 WAR last season... and Correa posted a career best 7.2 WAR and wants 10 years/$300M? Doesn't add up.

The more I think about it, the Semien comp is actually quite bad for Correa's mega-deal aspirations. It sets an annual contract value of $25M and it effectively eliminates the Rangers from bidding on Correa.

 

CC will get somewhere in the 200M range

 

Taking the Rangers out of the equation doesn’t help him, but there are still teams out there. That the Rangers decided 7 years of Semien was preferable to 10 years of Correa is an interesting data point though. Age certainly has something to do with it, but I think that length of contract overall is also part of it.

I do think this means there is a 10 year / 250M deal out there for him, but 300M is still a big jump from this. He may see better long term potential with a shorter contract at a higher AAV particularly as the number of teams shrinks. I don’t know what’s more important to him.

 

When Story and Baez are off the table, Correa's value goes up. The Astros, Dodgers, Tigers, Yankees and Phillies have all been looking at the SS market.

 

Correa is a full 4 years younger.

 

devils advocate here, Correa is younger but may be more mature…seeing as he is the daddy to most AL pitchers and organizations

 

My point was that Correa being 4 years younger makes him a more desirable and, therefore, more expensive free agent.