But he’s already good. Unlike Singelton, he was at or near the top of all prospect lists. The very small (if anything) adjustment period he required to hit MLB pitching is a huge predictor for being a future MVP-type superstar. I believe only Pujols and Cabrera showed similar quick-adjusting at that age… with Correa not too far behind. He does get a current market value extension for his FA years. He gets a lot for the pre-arb years, but maybe gets $10-15 more if he doesn’t sign and turns into an MVP immediately. Would the Astros consider doing something similar with Yordan? I’d say go for it… especially when another 15 teams will be in the market for a DH next year with the new CBA.
Dumb contract for Franco. Sign a 7-8 year contract and be a Free Agent at 27-28. If you are great, you will get another big one.
It depends on how the Astros view his knees. I think Astros would do something similar for Tucker in a heartbeat. Though Pena may be more of an apples to apples comparison from a years of service POV (though not in a value/year basis) considering Rays are banking on inflation creating a lot of value in the last 6 years of the deal.
There's no need for Tampa Bay to agree to that. They have him under club control for 6 of those years for a max of maybe $30MM total. As a result of this contract, he'll get more than Correa will over the first 13 years of their careers - without having even played a full season. He gives up some upside down the line, but he takes out all the risk of having to perform or stay healthy.
Maybe. Peña is 4 years older than Franco though… which would put him in the Springer class of being an “older” FA, which would probably lower the overall $’s required to get an extension agreement. I know somebody above mentioned that Franco should have only taken a 7-8 year deal, but that really doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Rays, as they only buy out 1-2 FA years. Granted, they now get 7 FA years of control (which makes him a much better trade candidate when the Rays want to get out of the deal). And if Yordan’s knees are good enough for him to play the field as much as he did this last year, that would imply that they expect him to be healthy enough for his arb/2-3 FA years.
Funny that people want Correa to sign for something like 6 / $200, which is basically the same deal Franco is getting without having had to perform at all, but people think Franco will be regretting it.
Inflation with most of Franco's salary in the back half of the deal makes those really different deals. Assuming 4% inflation (this was the agreed upon rate between MLB and MLBPA for calculating NPV, but revenue probably increases at a higher rate), the last 6 years of Franco's deal is worth ~$114M Net Present Value (slightly better than average starter value). Crane and Click, and even the most anti-Correa fans would likely jump for joy at a 6-year $114M NPV deal for Correa. Apples to apples is tough. If the deal for extension is the same between Tucker and Alvarez, I'd go Tucker as I expect he'll have a longer period of time as being an above average player. Though, if Alvarez body holds up, he's going to be able to hit into his 40s. I just don't trust big guys to stay healthy for a career for right or wrong as a personal bias.
I think if they stop messing around with him playing the field as much as he has, he should be able to carve out said career. His running was a huge plus. He seems to have the frame where if he commits to fitness, he won’t get “too” heavy (Hidalgo heavy) that would put further strain on already strained knees. Its clear that any above homegrown player needs to be extended relatively early (ala Bregman) to have a chance to stay here longer than their arbitration years… or the Astros then risk having to risk their policy of no long contracts for a player on the open market. I guess its better than being a poverty franchise and trading these guys before they reach arb or FA years, but still would be nice for them to showcase some flexibility on players they have an inside track on keeping long term.
?? But if he hadn’t signed the deal, in 5 years he’d have made only $20 million dollars. The key is what the average market contract with inflation accounted for is in 6 years when he would have been a free agent…. And whether or not he’s continued to play at an MVP-like level… and also presuming Tampa hasn’t already traded him to another team for prospects.
I get what you're saying... I'm saying he will outperform the 10 yr 200 milli contract in 5 years anyway... I'm just glad these youngins making big bread early...
It's definitely a gamble, but they likely wouldn't be able to sign him if he reaches FA, so now they have him for an extra 5 (6 with the option) years. That's enough reason for the Rays to do this deal, in my opinion.
