1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by DaBeard, Nov 6, 2021.

  1. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 1999
    Messages:
    47,915
    Likes Received:
    14,156
    Hitting comes and goes. Alvarez is a beast for the Red Sox series… neutralized after. The Braves pitchers had a little to do with that as well (although game 4 was inexcusable that they only scored 2 runs with who they were facing).

    I think Javier should be a starter. Their initial plan was to try and save his arm some… but also utilize him for higher leverage spots given the state of the weaker bullpen earlier on. Its just tough to find a role like that for the amount of regular work (but with regular rest) Javier seems to need. Closest I could think of was Andrew Miller, but he was an ineffective starter… Javier was an effective starter.

    And as far as playoff utilization goes… even with a stable of starters, we are still going to see teams go 5 or 6 max and purposely avoid 3rd trips through the lineup. It wasn’t simply due to a lack of starting depth.
     
  2. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2018
    Messages:
    4,426
    Likes Received:
    4,495
    None of this is me predicting he’s going to do any of this- and the reason I’ve been so negative about Click is lunhow did such a great job building this team and I want to undo Clicks 3 biggest FA deals bc they were unnecessary and not super productive (just spend the extra $9 million to bring back Springer over Brantley). I don’t think he’s going to do any of this except maybe Starling Marte. But I’m just trying to point out to the crew that thinks we are boxed in that there’s all sorts of options out there.
     
  3. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 1999
    Messages:
    9,186
    Likes Received:
    7,161
    Before signing JV, I’ve posted on multiple occasions this offseason that the Astros current payroll was somewhere between 135-140M, and that factored in all those raises you mentioned other than I did not realize how many incentives Odorizzi has for this season, Yuli’s plate appearance incentives, and how many games Castro caught in 2021. If Odorizzi and Yuli hit their incentives, the payroll would be $170M, but I strongly doubt Odorizzi pitches 160 innings for this team in 2022.

    Pressly makes $10M
    Maldonado $5M
    McCullers 17M for luxury tax purposes; 15.83M for payroll purposes
    Stanek: I’m guessing the 3M range in arbitration
    Valdez: Guessing 3M or so in his first year of arbitration
    Maton: Guessing 2M in arbitration
    Diaz: 4-5M in his final year of arbitration
    Josh James: he can be non tendered or will make near the minimum.
    Castro appeared in 66 games, so 6 x 250K raises his salary to 5.75M. If it’s just starts, it will be less:


    C: 10.75M between Maldonado and Castro (could be slightly less)
    1B: 10M for Yuli (8M plus 2M in incentives for having more than 550 plate appearances)
    2B: 29M for Altuve
    SS:
    3B: 12.67M for Bregman
    LF: 16M for Brantley
    CF: 1.5M between two of Siri, McCormick and Meyers (2.25M if all three are on the roster)
    RF: 750K for Tucker
    DH: 750K for Alvarez
    UTIL: 4-5M for Diaz

    The offense costs between 85-86M without Correa.

    Starting Pitching:

    25M: Verlander
    17M: McCullers
    3M: Valdez
    750K: Garcia
    750K: Urquidy
    14:75M if he hits all incentives: Odorizzi

    61.25M for the starters if Odorizzi reaches all of his incentives

    Swingmen: Bielak and Javier: 750K each: 1.5M total

    Middle/Late Inning Relievers: Taylor (750K), Maton (2M in arbitration), Stanek (3M in arbitration), Baez (5.5M), Pressly (10M): 21.25M

    The bullpen costs 22.75M for 7 arms. Adding in the starting pitchers, it comes out to 84M.

    So, if Odorizzi is on the opening day roster and pitches 160 innings, the Astros payroll is roughly $171.5M (factoring in two pre-arbitration salary players as the 25th and 26th players on the roster, like Jeremy Pena). If Odorizzi only pitches 100-120 innings (20-24 starts; 5 innings per start), that knocks the payroll down by $4.25M or more.
     
    #483 DVauthrin, Nov 18, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2021
    AznH-TownFan and H-Town Info like this.
  4. raining threes

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    12,576
    Likes Received:
    8,199
    If the Stros starters had been able to give them 5-6 they would probably have rings.
     
  5. jayfree

    jayfree Member

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2015
    Messages:
    7,399
    Likes Received:
    10,171
    Soooooo. Correa is meeting with Hinch for lunch... in Houston... out in the open... to show he has suitors and force the Astros hand.

    While the Astros are reported to be "Ultra-Agressive" in their pursuit of Marte... to show they have options and force Correa's hand.

    This looks like two people who are on the verge of a divorce, trying to show the other up without actually talking.
     
    JeeberD, whiskeyred and BMoney like this.
  6. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    4,562
    Likes Received:
    6,319
    First thing that sticks out... you are talking real dollars. Luxury tax Bregman costs 20 million and then you also have to add 15-16 million for player benefits that were included in the luxury tax. If you are talking real dollars the Astros payroll last season was 188-189 million. You add on the luxury tax aav salaries and the player benefits that is how they had a 208ish million dollar luxury tax salary.

    Fangraphs has the current real dollar payroll at 162 million and luxury tax salary at 183.4 million. That means they have 24-26ish million left to get back to last years payroll. Then subtract the extra 6.75 million they need for Odorizzi's incentives and you are at under 20 million left to spend if they stay near last year's payroll. If they non-tender Montero and James you can add another 4 million left to spend.
     
    #486 Redfish81, Nov 18, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2021
    Bregatron and DVauthrin like this.
  7. raining threes

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2008
    Messages:
    12,576
    Likes Received:
    8,199
    I like this type of out of the box thinking. Even though with Correa's back I wouldn't sign him to more than 6-7 years at the most. I would do this knowing I most likely would have to eat the last year or two of his contract. You're setting it up to have to eat 6-7 years of his contract and that's best case scenario.
     
  8. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 1999
    Messages:
    9,186
    Likes Received:
    7,161
    Fair enough. Looking at their numbers a couple of things stand out:

    1) Nearly 8.6M for pre-arbitration players is too high. Right now, you have Tucker, Alvarez, Urquidy, Javier, Garcia, McCormick, Meyers, Taylor and Pena or Siri in that category. Looking at their numbers from 2021, Framber made the most from that group in 2021, and his salary was 637K. I would expect that total cost to be closer to 6M. (640K x 9 is 5.76M)

    2) As you said, I would expect the Astros to non tender both James and Montero, saving 4M.
     
  9. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    4,562
    Likes Received:
    6,319
    Their estimate also included players coming up and down during the season and the time they get big league salaries. Think of all time guys like Jones, Stubbs, Ivey, Scrubb, Paredes, etc, when they are brought up. Like you said, the 10 guys you listed if they are on the roster the whole year is over 6 million. Also, Emanuel was hurt while on the MLB roster so he will be getting a mlb salary while rehabbing unless they non-tender him. Meyers will also pull an MLB salary while recovering and he isn't going to be ready for opening day it sounds like.
     
    #489 Redfish81, Nov 18, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2021
  10. megastahr

    megastahr Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2008
    Messages:
    3,156
    Likes Received:
    969
    Does it break any rules to start a go fund me for fans to pay part of Correa’s salary ?
     
    awc713 likes this.
  11. BigM

    BigM Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2001
    Messages:
    17,969
    Likes Received:
    13,116

    That’s the face of a man that’s contemplating living in Detroit. How the **** am I going to get this past Daniella.
     
  12. jlaw718

    jlaw718 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2002
    Messages:
    766
    Likes Received:
    41
    This made me LOL. Truth.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  13. El_Conquistador

    El_Conquistador King of the D&D, The Legend, #1 Ranking
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2002
    Messages:
    14,193
    Likes Received:
    5,177
    That man on the left looks like he's about to sign a 5-year $160 million deal!
     
    BigM, robbie380 and punkoholic like this.
  14. Marteen

    Marteen Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,818
    Likes Received:
    1,263
    Rumor.

     
    jklb likes this.
  15. HTown2017Champs

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2018
    Messages:
    4,623
    Likes Received:
    4,408
    Is he just a fan or does he have connections/inside info? Not familiar with him.
     
  16. Marteen

    Marteen Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,818
    Likes Received:
    1,263
    As of now, it's "trust me, bro".
     
    AznH-TownFan likes this.
  17. AznH-TownFan

    AznH-TownFan Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2018
    Messages:
    938
    Likes Received:
    1,227
    I don’t think we ever have a chance to resign CC to begin with. I wish him the best of luck and hope he does get paid really well. For me, his best moment as an Astros was his rookie year, 2020 playoff and 2021 season. He’s not worth the money IMO but might be worth more to other teams. All those goofy injuries still concern me as a fan. And of course the low back issues. Let just move forward and get a bat before losing out on our top target(s).
     
    raining threes likes this.
  18. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2018
    Messages:
    4,426
    Likes Received:
    4,495
    Best case scenario you eat nothing. If he’s a hall of famer which I think is quite plausible he will be playable until he’s 40. Biggio was. Jeter was. ARod was. Beltran was. Almost everyone in the HOF was honestly. Now by playable I don’t mean worth 25 million. But I do mean worth the roster spot. And if he’s worth the roster spot it’s not a terrible deal. And if he’s worth the roster spot at 39 or 40 it means he will have been worth way more than 25 million per year during his prime and late prime.
    might you get stuck with 7 years? Sure. That’s possible. But it’s nowhere near best case. I expect 33 year old correa to be still near all star level.
     
    #498 Wulaw Horn, Nov 19, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
    raining threes likes this.
  19. Rox_Mayhem

    Rox_Mayhem Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2010
    Messages:
    1,658
    Likes Received:
    772
    Bregman, McCullers, and Jeff Luhnow's Wife follow him for what's it worth.
     
  20. CinematicFusion

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2018
    Messages:
    2,589
    Likes Received:
    2,496
    We were never going to sign Correa to a 8-10 year deal. If he gets that, he’s gone.
     
    AznH-TownFan and raining threes like this.

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now