https://theathletic.com/2953250/202...juzang-and-more-from-weekends-top-five-tilts/ 1. Gonzaga blew the doors off Texas 86-74 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score. The Zags were up 20 at the end of the first half and put it in cruise control for the remainder of the game. From a scouting standpoint, all of those 24 evaluators were in attendance to check out Chet Holmgren. The 7-foot Gonzaga center from Minnesota entered the game at No. 2 on my board, behind only Paolo Banchero, in large part due to his shooting, potential to handle the ball at 7-foot and rim protection. In terms of his game, it was more of a mixed bag. Offensively, the guy we’ll talk about next had the lion’s share of the duties inside, and Holmgren was more than happy to take a backseat given how dominant Gonzaga was offensively without him. It wasn’t a particularly impressive performance from him on that end, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can showcase more of the shot creation and shooting that enamored scouts throughout the latter stages of his high school career. He had two points (on a finish from the dunker spot) and one assist, and only took three shots. Not exactly an explosive performance. 2. Having said that, I thought Holmgren was absolutely outstanding defensively around the basket, particularly in the first half. The Longhorns had no chance to score in the paint when Holmgren was out there, as his length dissuaded them immensely from driving inside. Numbers from Pivot Analysis prove what the tape showed too. In the 11 minutes that Holmgren played in the first half, Texas took just 15 percent of its shots at the rim. When he was off the court, the Longhorns took over one-third of their shots at the rim. Over the course of the full game, Texas shot 33 percent at the rim when Holmgren was out there versus 60 percent at the rim when he was off the court. He had a pair of contests to start the second half on Texas’ first possession that showcased exactly why he’s so hard to score over the top of. He’s so good at staying vertical and getting everything he can out of his 7-foot-6 wingspan, and he’s so willing to absorb contact. On top of that, he’s pretty quick off the floor. You can certainly make a case that maybe Texas was overly cautious in the first half and should have been more willing to attack him. Holmgren had zero fouls in the first half but ended with four, including three around the rim defensively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more teams try to attack him in the body and with jump stops and pump fakes, as he did start leaving his feet a bit early. But on the whole, Holmgren played exactly the role in shutting down Chris Beard’s Texas offense that I thought he would when I recommended betting on the Zags before the game started. 3. How does one judge a performance like that in comparison to his status as a likely top draft selection? It’s a fair question to ask just how impressed scouts are with him from having seen him in that game. Personally, I think it’s a credit to Holmgren that he played a legitimately positive role in helping his team defeat a top-five squad in just his second game as a college basketball player. We’re going to talk about another potential lottery pick to close this piece who wasn’t able to do the same thing. Obviously, scouts will want to see Holmgren bring more to the table offensively and in terms of statistical production. But for an opening salvo in his first two games, where Holmgren set the Gonzaga record for blocks in a game against Dixie State then played a pivotal rim-protection role against a top-five team, scouts should be clear that Holmgren is a genuine interior defender prospect in terms of upside. Where the offense settles will ultimately be the difference between Holmgren being the No. 1 overall pick and being something like a top-seven pick. We’re going to get a few more showcase games with Holmgren in the non-conference season as well, as the Zags play UCLA on Nov. 23, Duke on Nov. 26 and Alabama on Dec. 4. Expect those games to be well-attended by scouts, particularly the showdown against Duke and fellow top prospect Paolo Banchero. It wouldn’t even surprise me if we see a few general managers attend that game, despite it being as early in the season as it is. On top of that, the West Coast Conference looks pretty good this year, with all of BYU, San Francisco and Saint Mary’s ranking as top-50 opponents right now according to KenPom. I haven’t been blown away with Holmgren so far, but I wouldn’t just look at the box score and assume Holmgren has been underwhelming. Defenses isn’t tracked well by box score numbers, and he’s really brought it on that end.
Sure but suppose something else happens and he gets in trouble again, the Rockets have the 4th or 5th pick. Do you take him then??
If you get either one you’re good imo. I just hope this is a one time mistake and he isn’t prone to stupid choices.
I admit that I am not an expert in college basketball and my analysis may be incomplete, but I am surprised how little Jabari Smith is mentioned as a possible selection. I see in him better technical qualities than Banchero and a better physical complexion than Chet. What am I missing?
Better than Chet physically? How so? Same weight, Chet is longer and they’re probably similar athletes with the edge towards Chet.
Jabari is younger and weighs almost 20 pounds over. Anyways, is not the important part of my question. My point is if Jabari is that far from Paolo or Chet as a prospect.
