it has broken up thru an ascending triangle, 50 dma just broken up thru 20 dma. looks like a 4-mo cwh in the making i like it. option trading vol today is 4 X the avg took a flyer on it, bought a bullish CALL spread, 25/35. for a net cost of $2.4, which is my max risk, w the max potential profit of $10
this $200bn monster behaving like a penny stock. zero news that i can find, just pops 10% on good volume for no reason and threatening ath. looks bullish but i'm scared to add here. recent earnings was soft too.
infrastructure plays in the same vein, AA, Alcoa, would also benefit from Biden's infrastructure bill TA wise, MACD has just crossed-over to the upside after hovering the lower channel, trading actions appear to levitating, ready for lift off 20 dma apears to be bouncing up off the 50 dma
Fair value based on fundamentals is subjective, but I'm very comfortable getting "stuck" with shares at this price. Been selling covered calls and short puts at the same strike. Latest investor day they projected long term rev growth of 25%-30% with margins improving over time. Analysts have been maintain their pt. I won't be overweight this anymore, but will continue to milk my remaining position for premiums, and hold a few hundred shares for long term port.
CrowdStrike falls 4% as Morgan Stanley sets underweight rating https://seekingalpha.com/news/3770641-crowdstrike-falls-4-as-morgan-stanley-sets-underweight-rating down 8%. added to my position.
this is from Motley Fools Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on CrowdStrike with an underweight (i.e., sell) rating and a $247 price target that implies the stock has another $7 or so to fall from here before it reaches fair value. The "potential for decelerating revenue growth" and the stock's valuation of approximately 26 times its 2023 sales "creates an unfavorable risk-reward," warned analyst Hamza Fodderwala in a note covered by StreetInsider.com today. Furthermore, CrowdStrike's first-mover advantages appear to be fading as its rivals' next-generation endpoint detection and response offerings catch up to it in terms of capability -- and as its peers offer those services to customers for at least 15% to 20% less. Long story short, Fodderwala forecasts that CrowdStrike's revenue growth will decelerate through 2022. After warning so strenuously about CrowdStrike's prospects, the Morgan Stanley analyst actually ended up concluding that the stock trades for only "a slight premium" relative to the average valuations within the cybersecurity space. What's more, while Fodderwala said he anticipates seeing "relatively lower estimate beats going forward," he still thinks CrowdStrike will keep beating estimates in future quarters. but that actually doesn't sound like half-bad news for CrowdStrike shareholders. While the stock's valuation of 170-times-free-cash-flow is rich, the potential for continued earnings beats --a potential now affirmed by a CrowdStrike "bear" -- suggests that this stock could continue to power higher despite Morgan Stanley's sell rating. will sell another credit spread goin into th 2 Dec ERS
the one i trust most is Alex Henderson from Needham, he's been right in the past on CRWD's earnings when the market has been wrong. As expected after msft/amzn earnings, majority of the SaaS companies have been killing it. No one knows for sure, but i think it's much more likely that CRWD has good earnings than bad. SentinelOne is a legit competitor, but there's room for both imo, and in absolute terms, CRWD is still outpacing S (S has prettier growth % cos its starting from smaller base). i'm adding on the way down. beyond this qtr, CRWD is becoming a critical cybersecurity company. with positive cashflows now they are starting to acquire other promising start-ups.
BA has broken out of its 8 month downtrend but I have been burned by it in the past so I'm a little skittish getting back in. But there is certainly some value here.
