WOW!! 10 games into a rebuilding from scratch year and some of us are ready to get rid of players!! I don't care how high of a draft pick you are, a 19 yo player still has to acclimate to the team & league. I agree with those that say his 3rd year should be when we see Green start to bloom.
If Green would just knock down the 3's or finish at the basket then he'd be more efficient too. Don't take for granted the ability (and IQ) to take open shot, make open shot or finish in traffic.
Going strictly by Win Shares per 48 minute stats, the season it took for a player to get to a .150 or above WS/48 season (.100 WS/48 is an average player so using .150 WS/48 seems like a good starting point because you're technically looking at a player that's 50% better than the average NBA player): Kyrie Irving (age 22): 4th season Kemba Walker (25): 5th season Klay Thompson (24): 4th season Jimmy Butler (23): 2nd season Bradley Beal (23): 5th season Damian Lillard (23): 2nd season Victor Oladipo (25): 5th season Devin Booker (23): 5th season (highest so far .143 WS/48) Jayson Tatum (21): 3rd season (highest so far .146 WS/48) Donovan Mitchell (24): 4th season Luka Doncic (20): 2nd season Trae Young (22): 3rd season Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (22): 3rd season (highest so far .143 WS/48)
It's not always year three but it does tend to be. We're witnessing it now with many young players around the league. Morant, Herro and Barrett are all ascending into young stars before our eyes. Ja was already on the rise but now even more so as he's poised to cement his star status. You ever wonder if Morant would come to Houston given his love for the Rockets and friendship with JG? I feel like those two will be in the lab during summer sessions and will eventually get to talking about how cool it would be to play on the same team together.
I agree but I still think Mobley and Barnes would look better than Green on the Rockets. Barnes is playing a point guard like role and I think will end up being the best player with Mobley very close behind. Rubio wouldn’t be a bad idea next season (the last season we own our pick before the OKC thing kicks in) but I think the FO isn’t in any hurry to make a pg move this year.
Wood Theis and Tate are all technically veterans. Not only that but KPJ doesnt have the vision that Rubio and Garland have. We are talking about setting up Mobley here and he can barely set up Wood or Theis who are both veterans. Put Rubio on this team and Wood and Green would be catching lobs and we wouldnt have to worry about Wood complaining about not getting the ball enough. This team has no system and its "point guard" has low bbiq and pass vision. The result is atrocious 1v1 jack up any shot offense where the defense can choose who to leave open. Thats usually Theis behind the three. KPJ is a good player when he's not trying to be a point guard. He should be iso'ing off the wing or cutting to the basket for easy shots. This is one of those things the Rockets will have to learn the hard way. Because eventually KPJ will stop turning it over and start making shots and we will still look bad as a whole because no one is running the offense.
I think win shares is a bad stat to use here because win shares are exactly what they sound like - dividing up shares of each win. If you're on a team that wins a ton of games, there will be a lot of wins to go around, and your win shares will be higher. Conversely you can ball out on a shitty team and you won't get a lot of win shares because there are very few wins. Just to use Devin Booker as an example, this is a guy who very clearly "had it" by his third year, averaging 25/4.5/4.5 on slightly above average efficiency. I'd say that qualifies as a guy who has taken the next step. But his ws/48 was only 0.06 because he played for the suns and his team won 21 games. I'm not here to argue about his impact or "well why didn't they win more games if he's so great", I'm not trying to say Devin Booker was a world beater by year 3 - all I'm saying is it was clear that he was a great scorer and a great player. Like, he wasn't a bust, he wasn't going to be out of the NBA. That's what the 3 year thing is (usually) about, is that's when you can tell whether or not a player is going to make it in this league. You can write off the rookie year as "just a rookie", and even the second year as "well, maybe he can still improve", but if they taken off by year 3 there's like a 95% chance it's just not going to happen. In rare cases it can, but history has shown us that the third year is the deadline in almost all cases.
Fair points but my post is just to outline a broader summary that it takes time for guards in this league to make the proverbial leap from an average NBA player (WS/48 = .100) to one that's at least an All-Star. I used it also because, if we're getting into the meat and potatoes here, the last thing we want to see is a player putting up monster numbers on a lottery-bound team right? My post was directed to the people that can't help but to expect greatness from Green the moment he started his NBA career. Things take time; you can't rush a rebuild job.
While it feels like he hasn’t been a good finisher that’s not true. He hasn’t been great but he’s been about on par with past rookie guards
Who are the knee jerks? The ones who claimed Green a franchise altering player before he played a second of NBA basketball? Or the ones who admit he does not look good, with 10 games already played in the season?
I would say he hasn’t been good or bad. Just average. Has shown insane potential but needs to be more consistent like most rookies especially guards. Happy with what I’ve seen in the first 10 games. We got ourselves a good one
We would have a rookie that doesn't look out of place in the NBA, and a lot more fans would be comfortable with the fact we tanked last year to get him. There cannot be too many people other than the delusional worse-than-LOF-Jalen Only Fans who think last season was worth Jalen Green. A lot put on their blinders and believed the unwarranted hype, and I'm thinking even Stone was one of those. We all know Tilman is stupid enough to do exactly that.
I wonder what it would take for us to get someone like Sharife Cooper that’s going to be buried on the bench in Atlanta to Houston.. him and Green would be solid
Year 3? Porter is in his 3rd year and he is downward trending to say the least. Points per game is below from last year
