They like the guy that finished the year in Oakland under the scenario where they trade their outfielders (other than Tucker).
In that scenario Baez and Bregman are blocking Pena... We didn't give up a ton for 2 years of Cole but he wasn't pitching well when we got him... Castillo seems like he's at a high watermark... the hope is he stays there for 2 years...
Updating expectations on Houston’s 5 potential needs from the rumor mill: C: haven’t seen any smoke outside of Nooks thoughts on Contreras so for now I would expect them to stand pat with Maldonado/Castro SS: seeing several places pulling intel from different spots that link Houston to Story. There are varying opinions on Houston’s seriousness with Correa. No smoke on any other FA. My guess is Houston is talking with Correa to see if they can sign him prior to the real start of free agency, if he doesn’t bite then they keep dialogue open with Story to see if his price makes sense, all the while being ok if they have to go into the season with Pena as their everyday SS. OF: Lots of intel that Houston is open to being creative here and interested in FA OF, and my own analysis/prediction of the market agrees with that. I am skeptical that they will shop Brantley but at this point I would predict they’ll move on a FA OF who can play CF for at least 2022. Marte or Bryant would be awesome. SP: Lots of opinions that JV will be back, and other than that most of the talk is around trades. Castillo seems the most likely, but if Miami or Cleveland are willing to listen on their high quality SP Houston has the ammo to make it happen. I think we will all be pleased with what happens here. RP: Not much concrete news out there but suffice it to say Houston may focus on their more expensive needs first then address the bullpen in the latter part of the offseason. Houston needs at least 1 elite RP but I’m confident it’ll get addressed. Roster prediction: C Maldonado 1B Gurriel 2B Altuve SS Pena or Story 3B Bregman RF Tucker CF Marte or Bryant LF Brantley DH Alvarez UT Diaz C Castro OF McCormick ? TBD Ace Verlander, Castillo, Alcantara, or Bieber SP McCullers SP Valdez SP Garcia SP TBDx2or3 (if they add 2 ToR options they’ll likely have to trade one current SP, likely Urquidy or Odorizzi) RP Pressly, Maton, Baez, Javier, Stanek RP TBDx2or3 (combo of young arm, trade acquisition, or free agent)
It’s irrelevant whether Pena is blocked or not. He’s a top prospect that had an .OPS of .825 in A ball in 2019 and nearly .950 in 30 games at Sugar Land last year. If he didn’t miss most of the year with injury, he would be a top 40-50 prospect. He’s not a throw in. Also, Luis Garcia is perfectly fine as a 3rd or 4th starter. He has plenty of weapons to get major league hitters out, and unless it’s him and a lower-level prospect for Castillo, the deal doesn’t make sense for the Astros. I could see Javier and Pena being the absolute maximum the Astros offer for Castillo. The only starter the Astros would offer Garcia and Pena for would likely be Shane Bieber. He’s on a different level than the other trade candidates if he’s healthy.
Solving SS with Correa or Story immediately makes Pena an elite trade chip they can use to acquire a ToR SP. Pena probably nets Castillo almost by himself and would be the primary piece for Alcantara or Rogers from Miami (Bieber would probably cost Pena plus another very valuable piece, somebody like Urquidy or Brown among others).
It is interesting, because I think it all hinges on how confident they are in Pena. If they are pretty confident that he is a 3-4 WAR type player early on, then they have SS solved at a very low amount and they can spend money on a SP or trade for an SP and sign an outfield free agent. They are potentially in a good situation either way. There are obviously risks involved, but there are a number of arms in FA too that could fill the Astros rotation needs.
1) You're overvaluing 130 plate appearances in AAA 2) why would they pay Story to hit worse? Is he really making up for it with his glove? The guy struggled to hit .200 on the road this year... I don't dislike Pena. He's a legit prospect... i don't think he's on any top 100 lists though...
Yea...it goes back to what I was saying in my initial post in here last week. Where is the VALUE? They have a ton of options.
Castillo's value is likely very close to that of Cole when we got him. Both have had similar career paths, and while Castillo was awesome the last few months of the season last year, he was equally as awful early on. As far as Baez, that would be a shocking signing to me if we signed him. He seems like the "anti" player from what we typically look for. He has huge upside, but big downside too. Way too up and down of a guy to give big money to
Yeah - not sure why anyone would want to pay Trevor Story any significant money. He's largely a product of Coors Field with a 0.970/0.750 split, but someone will pay him based on his overall numbers. He also appears to be trending in the wrong direction with the best years of his career being the first several, though its not enough to say if its a trend or not.
130 plate appearances in AAA coming off of COVID and a player moving up several levels in a single season IS a big deal.... but beyond the numbers, it was how he looked, he showed strong power to the opposite field, was very confident and showed very quick wrists. Pena is a legit prospect, and is certainly internally a top 100 prospect within the Astros organizational rankings and likely with other clubs. The commercial ranking are always outdated. As for Story, there are some red flags for me personally, but history shows that players on the Rockies hit better than their road splits after leaving Coors Field. He is also likely a good fit for the configuration in MMP.
The QO for JV came in at the last minute. I believe that is because there were ongoing negotiations that could be finalised soon. Starting pitching could come off the list of undecided items early.
FWIW I think the market will reflect a reduction in his contract amount based on him coming off a poor season and his splits and his loss in range at 3rd base. Having said that, typically players that have success at Coors and leave out hit their road splits by a good margin. I believe the Astros interest in Story is based on the fact that he is going to not get the type of contract many are expecting.
I think your read of the situation might be off. I believe they were trying to nail down Correa and if they did that they might not want Verlander back.
I wouldn't make the assumption that resigning Verlander would be the end of their starting pitching additions. I think it all comes down to how the markets (trade and free agency) evolve. The Astros have had discussions about adding more than one starter under certain conditions.
@Nook Is the Astros interest in Story legit or just speculation? I wouldn’t mind him as I think he’d do well as an Astro and won’t get as much as he’s expected to but I don’t want to lose the comp pick.
I usually just listen to what Kirby has to say and in the past KG would give me similar information. What I was told is that the Astros are interested in Story, so yes I believe that the Astros would lose the draft pick compensation if they get him at a good value. While losing the pick hurts, the added potential of Story at SS likely is more important. I haven't heard any numbers with Story and the Astros, but based on what KG has told me in the past, the Astros are and always want the most value for their buck, so they likely think they can get him at some form or either discount or at a shorter contract length.
