They are almost certainly better than saying Correa is better than Lindor, so he should get 10/350. Anyway, if the 6 / 210 talks are real, that’s arguably a more compelling offer than 8 / 240 (the median estimate on Fangraphs).
That's fine, those guys will get that money from other teams and we can play minor leaguers or sign journeyman.... You might be passing on those dollars but they will get them... Baez already turned down 180.... Not a fan or Marte or Taylor for big money.. i think Bryant is reasonable but i prefer a Shortstop to replace a shortstop so we don't rely on Bregman there..
Btw, if you're not including Garcia, why would they take our inferior prospects? There are other teams out there we would be bidding against...
1. Carlos Correa. Ten years, $320MM. Tim Dierkes: Tigers / Steve Adams: Phillies / Anthony Franco: Tigers 8. Trevor Story. Six years, $126MM. TD: Phillies / SA: Rangers / AF: Astros 17. Raisel Iglesias. Four years, $56MM. TD: Dodgers / SA: Astros / AF: Blue Jays 18. Carlos Rodon. One year, $25MM. TD: Astros / SA: Red Sox / AF: Angels 23. Justin Verlander. Two years, $40MM. TD: Giants / SA: Giants / AF: Braves 28. Kendall Graveman. Three years, $27MM. TD: Astros / SA: Royals / AF: Dodgers 40. Zack Greinke. One year, $15MM. TD: Nationals / SA: Cardinals / AF: Red Sox
I'll take Graveman for 3 years 27 million Iglesias getting a qualifying offer has me way less interested in him.
I’m not giving up five years of Luis Garcia for two years of Luis Castillo. Garcia is almost as good, and he’s barely scratched the surface of what he can become. Then, you wanted to add in another top 30 prospect in Jeremy Pena. Your offer is way too much for the Astros to give up for him. If someone else wants to overpay, so be it. If your offer was one of them and a lower-level prospect, I’d consider it, but both is a hard pass. Luis Castillo isn’t Max Scherzer. He was awful in the first half and figured things out midseason.
FWIW .... what I am hearing.... The Astros have shown more interest in top of the rotation type pitchers than bats, when it comes to the trade market. Astros, Giants and Braves all very aggressive in trade talks. Astros and Giants are among a number of teams interested in Castillo with the Reds. Astros also have interest in Verlander (obviously) and a number of younger pitchers on the Marlins. The Astros also have had conversations with the Cleveland Indians about starting pitching, but the Indians want a lot in return. Still, they have talked a number of times. Astros are willing to radically change their outfield if it can net them starting pitching, and address the outfield situation via free agency. Astros tend to think that the market will NOT be as bullish on player contracts as some think.
I know MLB Trade rumors has legitimate news stories and I follow them, but definitely take these predictions with a grain of salt. I looked back at the article they posted last year and they were not right on very many. They got Trevor Bauer right but very few others in the top 30. They did get close on some of the numbers further down the list, and they did get some obvious ones right (Yadier Molina) but predicting the market and where players are going is pretty much a crap shoot. It is nothing against the MLBTR guys its just that you could probably do an old school mash paper (yes I am dating myself here) and get similar results. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2021.html
Bregman isn’t playing shortstop next season unless both Aledmys Diaz and Jeremy Pena get hurt. The last thing the Astros are going to do if they lose Correa is shift him there with his hamstring and quad injuries the last two seasons. That idea needs to die. I also don’t care that Baez turned down 180M. I’d rather sign Correa for 7 or 8 years, or move on cheaper options like Chris Taylor at say 4 for 72 or 5 for 90 or Marte at 2 for 40 or 3 for 60 (team option on year 3 since he’s 33) than give Baez 168M over 6 years. Taylor can play 2B/SS/3B and all three outfield positions. Bryant can play 1B/3B/all three outfield spots, though he’s better in the corners. Marte is a big upgrade on Meyers/McCormick. I like Taylor or Bryant the most because of their versatility. That enables the Astros to be flexible moving forward from a position player standpoint.
You don't trade a guy like Garcia for TWO years of Castillo, that's a recipe to be really terrible not too long from now. No team would make that kind of deal. Not even the angels who are terrible run, but do their best to stay away from good pitching Pena will likely be a top 40 prospect when the new lists start coming out. Very very unlikely you are moving him unless you already have Correa, or another of the free agent SS's signed long term If we go after Castillo it would likely be headlined by Hunter Brown and some of the other prospect arms
Taylor turned down the QO. He is good, but i'm not giving him 80-90 million PLUS giving up a top pick for him
If I want a big bat other than Correa, I want Kris Bryant. Give you position versatility at 3B/1B/LF/RF and CF in a pinch, solid defense, and gives .850 OPS or better.
Appreciate it, Nook. And IF they move Brantley, this is the guy to go after at the LF position, imo. Him and Yordan mashing would be fun to watch.
SS needs to be decided because without Pena available to trade for a starter I'm not sure we can match what other teams with a bunch of top 100 prospects can offer. Alcantara would be my dream trade but no idea what that would cost. After seeing the qualifying offers and some contract predictions I could see something like this happening.... Trade Michael Brantley, Jake Odorizzi, and Jason Castro. If you can get a major league player (bullpen arm) in return on any of those guys great. If not prospects would be fine. You are freeing up possibly 34 million by dumping those guys depending on what incentives Odorizzi ends up reaching next season. Trade for: Wilson Contreras. (arb estimate is 8.7 million) Free agent signings: Kendall Gravemen 3 years 30 million Kris Bryant 6 years 150 million Justin Verlander 2 years 40 million Freddie Galvis 1 year 4 million Bryant starts in LF next year. He moves to 1B whenever Yuli is done. Maybe in 2023 or 2024. Bryant can also move around depending on injuries/rest. Lineup: Altuve 2B Tucker RF Bryant LF Alvarez DH Bregman 3B Yuli 1B Contreras C Meyers CF Pena SS Bench: Maldonado, Galvis, Diaz, McCormick/Siri Rotation: Verlander, McCullers, Framber, Garica, Urquidy/Javier, Brown, Solomon, France, Ivey, Whitley, etc. Bullpen: Pressly, Graveman, Stanek, Maton, Baez, Javier/Urquidy, Montero, Taylor/James/Scrubb/Paredes/Dubin/Abreu/Bielak
Pena missed time last year and would be blocked in my scenario. He's about the 8th best ss prospect they could get for Castillo. He's not Austin Martin and Castillo isn't Berrios. I don't dislike Garcia, but it's a win now move and we don't know if we can rely on him due to lack of track record...
I would be happy with that outcome, but from talking to Kirby they don't seem overly concerned with waiting on the shortstop situation. All I can guess is that they know they know their plans for Pena regardless (i.e. he is being traded or kept no matter what) of what happens at SS, or they are confident that they can add a starting pitcher without losing Pena. I do find it interesting that we are as involved in the trade market as we apparently are. The Giants are competing for a lot of the same players the Astros are.
