Mark Berman: Astros offering Carlos Correa a 5 year/160 million dollar contract

That’s what I’m thinking. I’m thinking 7 years, 245 or 250M stands a good chance of getting a deal done. It’s nice to see the Astros finally step up their offer.

 

There is some Puerto Rican woman on Twitter who is an Astros fan- long story short- supposedly Carlos did an interview with a Puerto Rican news channel or something about a month ago… and basically said that he will be taking state taxes and cost of living into account when considering contract offers- (obviously you’d think most players would unless they just love the idea of being in Cali or NYC). The 6 year deal 35 mm APY seems like a pretty good deal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they went up to 7 with some kind of team or player option mixed in there somewhere

 

It's a terrible offer. The idea behind a $300MM/10 yr offer is that you get a discount on the player's value in the prime years and pay it back in the late years. So for a player like Lindor, they are really paying something like $40MM/yr for the first 5 and then $20MM/yr for the back 5.

Asking Correa to take $32MM/yr for his prime years and then have to find another deal at age 32 is a joke. It's nothing close to a reasonable offer. If his alternative is even a lower $280MM/10 yrs with someone else, to match that, he'd have to get $24MM/yr for his age 32-36 seasons, which is like a 50/50 possibility (Springer type contract), and the odds of him getting more than that is pretty low. There's no upside there for him to take a short offer like this that only covers his prime at a discount.

 

6 for 210 is a nice starting point. 7 for 245 may get it done if someone doesn’t offer the 10 year deal.

 

This is just like Springer and Cole. He has been gone for a while now. The players all acknowledged it in those cases and they are all acknowledging it now with their various statements about one last run, going out on top, etc.

They talk and they know the deal. It is only fans who maintain the fantasy from a distance.

 

I mean, that’s not going to get it done, but I’m not surprised at the offer. I wish him well!

 

I doubt he takes it now but this does go a long way in improving our chances at keeping him. If nobody offers him 10yrs/330M+ then he may turn back and take an offer like that if he really wants to stay here (or nobody offers more).

 

I doubt he takes 6 for 210 right now, either. But, it’s a legitimate starting point because it includes one of the top-5 AAV’s in the sport and more than 200M. 5 for 160 is wasting everyone’s time. The only way you get Correa’s attention on a 5-year deal is if you offered him a ridiculously high AAV (something like 5 years, 200M).

 

Just for optics this is a pretty terrible offer. At least offer a few lower salary back end years you know won't come into play to at least make it look respectable. The AAV isn't even all that impressive, merely fair. There are at least half a dozen other teams that will offer him all of the front end money we are offering, and another 100 million extra

This offer if true pretty much says GTFO. There's literally no reason to take this because it's not even competitive, and before people cry "wanting to be here" it's one thing to claw after every penny, it's another thing to leave 100-150 million on the table. That's not a reasonable expectation.

I think a more respectable, although not likely much different offer would have been 10 years 250, with 5/175 over the first five years with an opt out after year 3. The 6/210 is significantly better if true, but it still lacks the sweetener extra years he likely won't take but should still want as a safety net.

 

This guy is pretty well connected to the team and the situation. He put out a series of tweets yesterday that’s worth a read. Basically saying from what he’s heard (has a lot of friends on the team and in the organization) that they’re legitimately serious about keeping him and that he’s legitimately serious about wanting to stay. He seemed very optimistic a deal will get done at some point. We can only hope!

 

He's gone and it sucks.
I hope Jeremy Pena works out because I'm sure they are going with him and not one of the other free agent ss.

 

Felt like he was already gone in the playoffs...

 

To be fair, Heyman is likely much less connected to the situation than someone like Berman or McIlvoy.

 

Correa should be a life long astro.
We should have a statue of him and altuve hugging outside minute maid.

 

Heyman is doing nothing more than giving the same “from a distance” assessment everyone on this thread already gave. He knows nothing personally.

 

If we accept as true that Correa would like to stay, that Correa accounts for taxes, and that Crane wants Correa to stay, those are forces that should lead each side to explore and stretch the “uncomfortable” side of what they are willing to offer/accept.

It remains to be seen whether stretching from both sides can yield a deal, and the biggest factor in that analysis is currently unknown - what is the market for Correa.

let’s say the Astros have put up 6/210 as a starting point. In the absence of a defined market, both sides should see that as a legit opening bid. Yes, the years are likely low, but market hasn’t been set yet. Astros are signaling that they will prefer to give on AAV but want to hold the line on duration.

Correa, if he legit factors taxes, has to see that AAV is legit, and the negos are about years and the market needs to speak about years.

Said another way: it’s not like the Astros could open with 10 years, 210MM. The years would be good from correas standpoint, but the AAV is comical and harder to take seriously than an offer that is short on years.

My guess is that the Astros current outer band is something in the range of 7/250, and Carlos’s current outer band is somewhere like 10/300 (of course his opening ask would be higher). Once the market is defined, how far are each of them willing to stretch to find common ground for a deal?

Taxes. Legacy. Winning. All of those help.

But I think he leaves ultimately because some team will offer 10/310 ish numbers and the Astros will max out at 8/260-270ish. A future 40 year old Correa would tell him to take the Astros deal, but the 27 year old Correa will have a hard time turning down 10/300+.

 

7 years plus 1 year player option $270 million

Astros better get serious, fans will be let down and Season Tickets will go down also.

 

Seriously doubt this. As long as we are winning, ticket sales won't be a problem.

 

If Correa’s best offer from another non-Texas or Florida team is 10 years, 310M and the Astros offer 8 years, 280M (two more years at the $35M AAV reported by McIlvoy), it doesn’t make much financial or baseball sense to leave.

First, he’s on a loaded team in Houston that is built to win for the next three to four years. Second, when you factor in state income taxes, Correa’s 35M AAV in Houston is the equivalent of 36-37M for a non-Texas or Florida team. 36M x 8 = 288M; 37M x 8 = 296M. He’s getting only 14M or 22M more for two extra years of service. Even if the number is 8 years, 264M (33M in AAV), and the AAV is 34M for anyone not named the Rays (not happening), Marlins (bad team and highly unlikely), Rangers (terrible team, unlikely), that’s the equivalent of $272M over 8 years elsewhere.

So, Correa is essentially willing to leave this team and organization for $38M over 2 years? Maybe, but I doubt it.