I hadn’t seen that rumor but I don’t think it’s likely at all. The surface numbers do not support the idea that Bogaerts’ defense is in decline. Doesn’t make sense to me to move a 5 war SS to 2B so you can pay a different 5 war SS $300M; too many better ways to spend that money.
The Reds traded Barnhart and their GM indicated they are trying to shed payroll. That might mean Castillo is more available than ever. The Reds have offense, they need pitching depth. Hunter Brown, Forrest Whitley, and Bryan Abreu might be enough for Castillo.
Just a thought if Crane is going to get cheap... Ramon Urias with the Orioles... 27 and bats righty... Shouldn't cost much... Only 323 plate appearances over 2 years... .361 ob% in 296 PAs this year... Not the fielder Correa is, but has experience at SS / 2B / 3B. They could pick him up and put him and Pena in camp to compete for job... Worst case he's a super sub with Diaz and Marwin... best case he's a situation like Willy Adames for the Brewers and they build on him... Say they can get him to a .375 ob% hitting leadoff in front of Brantley... Slide Altuve to 3 and Bregman to Correa's spot...
Why didn't he sign Springer? Sometimes a replacement just isn't worth it... if Story is offer 120 over 5are you topping it? Depends on market... Also, could be an effort to lock up yordan and tucker to Bregman like deals with the cash... or go higher end pitching... I meant more in terms of cheap with replacing Correa, not in general...
https://theathletic.com/2910865/202...021-22-starting-with-carlos-correa-keith-law/ 1. Carlos Correa, SS, age 27 2021 WAR: 7.2 / Career WAR: 34.1 Correa is the best of the best in a strong free-agent class, coming to the market at just 27, younger than any other major free agent, and still playing up the middle of the diamond. The first overall pick way back in 2012, Correa has been good when healthy, although he’s only been healthy for two full seasons, as well as the truncated 2020 campaign; this year marks only the second time in a full 162-game season that he qualified for the batting title. Correa matched his career high in walks in 2021 and set a new high in homers with 26 while cutting his strikeout rate to a career low. He has shown the ability to hit all kinds of pitching — velocity, offspeed stuff, right- and left-handers, pretty much anywhere in the strike zone, too. He has a plus arm and ranges well to his right, with less range the other way, but he has defied predictions (including my own) that he’d outgrow the position so far, and he’s probably not going to move off short until his 30s, if then. Given how hard he hit the ball in 2021, he could easily have another gear of BABIP in him and post an 8-9 WAR season if he does. Correa should be looking for the 10-year deals that have become the norm for superstar position players, and any team that’s interested — which should be almost everyone — should value him as someone who’ll produce 50-60 WAR over that period, with some MVP-level seasons in the next few years. 26. Yuli Gurriel, 1B, age 38 2021 WAR: 3.7 / Career WAR: 13.8 Gurriel didn’t come to the majors until 2016, his age-32 season, but he just had one of his best years yet at age 37, losing power from 2019 but posting the best walk rate and BABIP of his career so far, while continuing his track record of extremely high contact rates. Over the last five seasons, Gurriel has the eighth-lowest strikeout rate among qualifying hitters, with a higher isolated power than anyone else in the top 10. He’ll turn 38 in June, and while he has actually improved his ability to connect with good velocity in the last three years, he doesn’t do much with it, and at some point soon that’s going to be enough of a weakness to materially impact his production — which, given his defensive limitations, means he’ll go from a solid regular to a bench piece very quickly. The Astros are very likely going to pick up his $8 million option. If they don’t, I’d give him a one-year deal for his contact rate, hoping his newfound patience sticks around, but he’s a bad first baseman and probably doesn’t have the power to be more than an average regular there or at DH. 41. Zack Greinke, RHP, age 38 2021 WAR: 1.2 / Career WAR: 73.1 So that’s three starting pitchers on this market who are heading to the Hall of Fame but are coming off seasons that will probably see them receive more tepid interest than you’d expect from their reputations. Greinke had what is probably the worst year of his career, with his highest FIP ever and lowest strikeout rate since 2005, when strikeouts in general were lower across the game. It’s a simple problem, but unfortunately there isn’t a simple fix: His four-seamer has dipped in velocity to the point where it’s barely viable for a right-hander, and he lives in the middle of the zone with it, trying to get to his plus changeup and solid-average curve and slider. I wouldn’t bank on him being league average with this stuff, but he could be a good fifth starter on a contender. ________________________________________________ Former Astros… 27. J.D. Martinez, DH, age 34 2021 WAR: 3.0 / Career WAR: 26.8 We can probably throw out JDM’s miserable 2020 season, when he was still dealing with the aftereffects of a 2018 ankle injury and had to unlearn some bad mechanical habits, but his 2021 production was still down from where he was during his peak years. And that’s fine, as long as teams reset their expectations for him. He still hits the ball extremely hard, with plus power, but his walk and strikeout rates are heading the wrong way, and in 2021 a handful of what used to be homers turned into doubles. He’s still productive enough to be an above-average DH, and there could be another big year in there before he’s through, but his age and skill set make a decline more likely than a bounceback. 37. Collin McHugh, RHP, age 35 2021 WAR: 1.9 / Career WAR: 10.9 After opting out of the 2020 season, McHugh returned from his worst major-league season in 2019 this year to post one of his best performances, working in a varied role for the Rays where he averaged closer to 2 innings per appearance — heresy just a few years ago. He’s mostly a slider/cutter guy, mixing in the occasional four-seamer, and the slider and cutter are so hard for hitters to distinguish out of his hand that they’re both out pitches for him. There are no guarantees with reliever health, but the Rays never used McHugh on back-to-back days, and while it’s just a hypothesis, I think the heavy usage of short relievers on no rest — sometimes even on three consecutive days — is a major reason they have been so volatile year-to-year. I’d give McHugh two years and $8 million to $10 million to keep doing what he’s doing. 40. Jonathan Villar, IF, age 31 2021 WAR: 1.8 / Career WAR: 13.4 In six years since Houston traded Villar to Milwaukee (for Cy Sneed, -0.4 WAR, now out of baseball), he has played for five different teams, been outrighted (by Baltimore, off a 4.3-WAR season), produced 1 WAR or more four times, and played at least 100 games at second base, shortstop and third base. He’s not a very good defender, with consistently negative Outs Above Average figures at all three spots, but he’s typically a league-average hitter, and that will play for a non-contender that needs an infielder or a contender looking for a useful bench piece. Spoiler 1. Carlos Correa, SS, age 27 | 2021 WAR: 7.2 / Career WAR: 34.1 2. Corey Seager, SS, age 28 | 2021 WAR: 3.7 / Career WAR: 21.3 3. Marcus Semien, SS/2B, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 7.1 / Career WAR: 28.6 4. Freddie Freeman, 1B, age 32 | 2021 WAR: 4.7 / Career WAR: 43.1 5. Marcus Stroman, RHP, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 3.6 / Career WAR: 18.4 6. Kris Bryant, OF/3B, age 30 | 2021 WAR: 3.3 / Career WAR 28.7 7. Robbie Ray, LHP, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 6.7 / Career WAR: 15.1 8. Kevin Gausman, RHP, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 5.3 / Career WAR: 16.8 9. Javier Báez, SS/2B, age 29 | 2021 WAR: 4.5 / Career WAR: 23.4 10. Max Scherzer, RHP, age 37 | 2021 WAR: 5.3 / Career WAR: 67.2 11. Nick Castellanos, OF, age 30 | 2021 WAR: 3.3 / Career WAR: 12.3 12. Chris Taylor, Swiss Army Knife, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 2.7 / Career WAR: 15.2 13. Starling Marte, OF, age 33 | 2021 WAR: 4.7 / Career WAR: 34.8 14. Trevor Story, SS, age 29 | 2021 WAR: 4.2 / Career WAR: 26.8 15. Brandon Belt, 1B, age 34 | 2021 WAR: 2.7 / Career WAR: 27.2 16. Eduardo Rodríguez, LHP, age 29 | 2021 WAR: 1.8 / Career WAR: 15.4 17. Carlos Rodón, LHP, age 29 | 2021 WAR: 5.0 / Career WAR: 11.5 18. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Age 29 | 2021 WAR: 0.0 / Career WAR: 15.9 19. Jon Gray, RHP, age 30 | 2021 WAR: 1.3 / Career WAR: 11.1 20. Kyle Schwarber, OF/1B, age 29 | 2021 WAR: 3.2 / Career WAR 9.0 21. Michael Conforto, OF, age 29 | 2021 WAR: 0.9 / Career WAR: 15.7 22. Clayton Kershaw, LHP, age 34 | 2021 WAR: 2.4 / Career WAR: 71.9 23. Mike Zunino, C, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 3.7 / Career WAR: 10.6 24. Anthony DeSclafani, RHP, age 32 | 2021 WAR: 3.9 / Career WAR: 10.1 25. Avisaíl García, OF, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 2.9 / Career WAR: 10.9 26. Yuli Gurriel, 1B, age 38 | 2021 WAR: 3.7 / Career WAR: 13.8 27. J.D. Martinez, DH, age 34 | 2021 WAR: 3.0 / Career WAR: 26.8 28. Steven Matz, LHP, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 2.0 / Career WAR: 9.3 29. Alex Cobb, RHP, age 34 | 2021 WAR: 1.7 / Career WAR: 14.4 30. Alex Wood, LHP, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 1.3 / Career WAR: 12.7 31. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, age 32 | 2021 WAR: 2.8 / Career WAR: 11.4 32. Eduardo Escobar, IF, age 33 | 2021 WAR: 2.6 / Career WAR: 12.0 33. Nelson Cruz, DH, age 41 | 2021 WAR: 2.5 / Career WAR: 42.4 34. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, age 32 | 2021 WAR: 1.7 / Career WAR 36.9 35. Kenley Jansen, RHP, age 34 | 2021 WAR: 2.3 / Career WAR: 18.6 36. Jorge Soler, OF, age 30 | 2021 WAR: -0.4 / Career WAR: 3.5 37. Collin McHugh, RHP, age 35 | 2021 WAR: 1.9 / Career WAR: 10.9 38. Tyler Anderson, LHP, age 32 | 2021 WAR: 1.6 / Career WAR: 8.1 39. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, age 34 | 2021 WAR: 2.5 / Career WAR 21.9 40. Jonathan Villar, IF, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 1.8 / Career WAR: 13.4 41. Zack Greinke, RHP, age 38 | 2021 WAR: 1.2 / Career WAR: 73.1 42. Mark Canha, OF, age 33 | 2021 WAR: 2.5 / Career WAR: 9.9 43. Andrew McCutchen, OF, age 35 | 2021 WAR: 1.4 / Career WAR: 46.0 44. Christian Vázquez, C, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 1.0 / Career WAR: 4.9 45. Ryan Tepera, RHP, age 34 | 2021 WAR: 1.8 / Career WAR: 4.9 46. Rich Hill, LHP, age 42 | 2021 WAR: 1.3 / Career WAR: 15.7 47. Matt Duffy, 3B/IF, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 1.6 / Career WAR: 9.2 48. Andrew Heaney, LHP, age 31 | 2021 WAR: 0.3 / Career WAR: 5.3 49. Johnny Cueto, RHP, age 36 | 2021 WAR: 0.8 / Career WAR: 32.9 50. Danny Duffy, LHP, age 33 | 2021 WAR: 2.1 / Career WAR: 19.8
I think general guidelines for the Astros payroll capacity this offseason are that they can add 1 large contract ($20-35M/yr), 1 2nd tier contract ($10-20M/yr), and 2-3 3rd tier contracts ($5-10M/yr). That’s plenty to address their needs, especially considering they also have a surplus of upper level pitching they can trade away without significantly impacting their long term outlook.
On what planet is Yuli considered a BAD first baseman??? He's a ****ing Gold Glove caliber defender. Poorly informed journalists piss me off so much.
That may have been more to due with almost zero interest from Springer to stay here.... dating back to the service time manipulation issues. I know they tried working extensions with him earlier and it just never happened. If George expressed a full desire to be an Astro for life (as Altuve/Bregman/Correa have at times), there would have likely been a deal even before he got to his final year. The opportunity was there after his monster 2019... that was when his earning potential was at its peak, that probably will end up being his best season overall, and the Astros had extra operating revenue coming off the WS.
I thought it was also due to the fact that we had players waiting in the wings (Tucker, Meyers, Siri, etc.) that could replace Springer in the outfield. Correct me if I'm off base though.
If we retain Correa we can just run it back with the same offense, but if we let him go we certainly need to add. Proactively looking to upgrade/replace Yuli and Brantley has to be on the table. Top flight shortstops are just too damn expensive, and I'm not big on offensive catchers unless you are thrilled with their game calling and receiving, and guys that can do all that aren't easy to find. Replacing Correa in the aggregate gets pretty difficult if you approach it with 7 spots filled at all the production positions. As for the pitching, we should absolutely be targeting every top pitcher available. I still think our rotation if healthy is pretty good, and I expect a big sophmore season from Garcia. However one top end arm would really do wonders for our depth. Frambers postseason meltdown was far away the biggest disappointment, but even if he cant return to form we have LMJ,Garcia and Urquidy. Add one top arm and Framber as your 4/5 starter is pretty damn awesome. If Verlander takes the QO, it honestly throws a monkey wrench into things because he can't be counted on to be a top starter at this point. They might have to gamble and risk needing burn prospects at the deadline for a starter if it doesn't work out. Don't spend anything significant on free agent relievers. Pressly and Stanek are coming back, Maton will be looking to build on his awesome postseason. We also still have a slew of young upside arms. As this season fully displayed, you can address a pen mid season very easily if needed. Don't waste any more resources there until you have to.
lol "public defensive metrics" aren't good...like what kind of proprietary formula are you using Keith? Maybe you should patent it and make money off of it if the juice is THAT good.
Luis Castillo of the Reds is a Huge Need Got to pull this trade, even if Pitching Prospects are involved. Korey Lee, Yainier Diaz are off Limits Need those 2 Catchers for the Future.
On relievers, I think part of the problem with the Astros pen and starters is that the bullpen depth just wasn't used early in the season leading to guys that would be used in the playoffs picking up a lot of innings early in the season. Overall, it looked like the Astros pitching staff was just gassed in the playoffs. If Astros are going to be as aggressive with perceived high leverage arms and as unaggressive with perceived low leverage arms in 1st half of 2022 as 2021, I'd recommend having more high leverage arms to spread the workload around sooner than the trade deadline. Granted, this doesn't have to be external acquisitions. There are a lot of ways to remedy this situation. If Dusty is back, I don't see him finding a remedy without getting good external relievers (or calling up high quality pitching prospects early) he trusts early.
