2021 Astros Minor League Thread

I see no reason not to believe Jeremy Pena is a 30 home run hitter. Do you?

 

I just don't think it's a reasonable thing to project from a guy who has no track record of hitting for power other than the last week. A guy gets buff and then is expected to go from a 40 grade to 60 on power and do something Carlos Correa has never even done (albeit, due to injury).

I just think we all need to step back and be realistic and not expect too much from a kid who hasn't even played a game in the bigs. 30 homers and plus defense at SS? Let's tell Correa to kick rocks right now while we're at it and bring him up.

Fun Fact: Since 2012, there have only been 5 shortstops that have hit 30 home runs. Tatis, Lindor, Story, Boegarts, and DeJong. I guess you can throw in Javy Baez to make it 6. Not saying Pena doesn't have power, just saying let's cool it before we crown him the next HR derby champ.

 

You missed a few here...

Marcus Semien hit 33 homers in 2019
Brad Miller hit 30 in 2016 (and played the majority of his games at SS)
Gleyber Torres hit 38 homers in 2019 (splitting time between 2nd and SS)

 

A few Astros related questions answered by Goldstein.

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/kevin-goldstein-fangraphs-chat-9-27-2021-11508.html

He thinks Pena will be a 3+ fwar/yr player. Whatever Houston adds at SS (if anything) this offseason will very likely be a short term solution.

 

I am just tooting my own horn. I have been predicting this for Pena for a very long time and am excited that he finally appears to be living up to my expectations for him. Sorry if I came off as unrealistic.

 

Dang, ESPN Stats making me look like an idiot

In any case, I still grade Pena's power as a 50 right now. For reference, Kyle Tucker was a 55 power after he hit 25 in his 2017 minor league season. Pena was thought to be a 10 home run guy, maybe 15 before the offseason. I think it's safe to say he's a 20 home run guy maybe 25, which is exactly what a 50 grade equates to. Of course I'd very much welcome more, but just want to be realistic about expectations.

 

Love the enthusiasm for the kid. I think he's a .275 hitter with 18-22 home runs and 70 RBI most years. There's only 6 other shortstops this year that hit .275 with 20 home runs, so even those numbers makes him a near elite SS prospect when paired with his defense and above average speed.

To me, his swing seems more conducive of hitting hard line drives instead of lofting the ball. He has a very low follow through, and his swing sort of reminds me of Juan Uribe. Seems like he gets a lot of torque using his core and lower body. His ground out to fly ball outs is really extreme in the limited sample this year, which is strange because it was the other extreme in 2019. So we'll see what he turns into, but everything suggests he should be getting a look real soon in the bigs and expected to be a productive starter.

 

Well, he’s not fat and he’s in Florida, both good signs. Next to 2023, 2022 is the most important season of his career.

 

I’ll get excited when Storm gets excited… last few years Strom has barely been able to say anything positive about him.

 

Tyler Brown may be underrated at this point. Some of his early struggles might be due to where he was pitching. Could break out in Corpus next year.

Given the lack of a 1st round pick that draft looks pretty good so far. Santos is one of the 10 best prospects in the system, and Whitcomb, Daniels, Brown, and Endersby all have arguments for the back end of the top 30. Those 4 guys plus Correa, Sprinkle, and Dirden should all reach AA next season.

 

Still think the stuff is there for him to be a great setup man or closer. Also TJ surgery has become somewhat of a right of passage, maybe he’s now finally healthy and can get his command under control cause man does he have some wicked stuff

 

He's always had the ability. His problem is squarely between his ears.

 

I might not have been paying attention, but this is the first I've seen anything discussed about Sprinkle. I didn't know he had such a great strikeout season in relief. Any chance he could be a future closer? What type of stuff does he have?

 

He is on that closer track but the flame out rate for those guys is very high.

 

"Guest: Jeremy Pena is destroying AAA. Is he a perennial 3+ fwar SS starting next year?



11:37
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know about next year, but going forward, yes."

Kevin Goldstein knows what he is talking about usually.... he was wrong on Martes.... but his issues were between his ears.

 

That was my question. I also asked him about how Houston is able to find all these no-bonus international arms.

At this point Pena should be considered an elite prospect. I am not sure which Astros prospects have been in the fangraphs top 50 in the last 10 years but it’s probably a pretty short/impressive list. Since 2017, Martes, Yordan, and Corbin Martin are the only 3.