Mariners - When was the last time they shelled out a massive contract like that? JP Crawford is a great fielding SS, they will pick up Seager's option at 3B and Toro looks good so far leaving him 2B. Doesn't make sense... Rangers - LOL 0% chance. I don't care what they offer him, he isn't going to go get his ass handed to him by us at one of the AL doormats...their roster is atrocious with little to be excited about the next 2-3 years Phillies - I could see this one but they need pitching way more than hitting... Yankees - They need to resign Judge to a massive deal, decide on Gallo, and their SP is awful...not to mention Correa isn't exactly loved in NY Angels - They just got done paying Pujols on a stupid long term deal and Rendon hasn't worked out much better. Their starting pitching is awful and their bullpen is even worse...I would be shocked if they shelled out the $300M again on a bat that at the end of the day still has some durability concerns. Cubs - See Rangers. Also, it's way more likely they just bring back Baez Nationals - They literally just traded away a stud SS...but like the Phillies I could see it potentially. We will see but I think teams above are going to be more inclined to go after Semien, Story, and Baez before the massive long-term deals Seager and Correa are going to be asking for.
Why would they choose him over Baez, Semien, Seager, Story, etc. given those guys aren't hated by the entire city?
People on this board act like we aren't right up there in payroll with NYY...here's a reminder for the people acting like we are some small market team. 2021 Payroll 1) LAD $267M 2) NYY $203M 3) NYM $199M 4) HOUSTON ASTROS $192M 5) PHI $184M JV and Greinke off the books is about $50M. The following year Brantley likely will be gone so there's another $16M. Correa can be offended by the offer at the beginning of the season all he wants but the Astros would have had to been the dumbest team in the league to give him a huge contract without making him prove he could do it over the ENTIRE course of a 162 game season after his last few seasons. In summary, I'm sure the Astros will up the offer in the offseason and he'll get to decide if he wants to take a tad less and/or a shorter deal to stay with a team that actually wins or he can go take a deal from a team like the Rangers or Phillies. EDIT: https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-on-his-future-with-astros
Mariners paid Cano. Could make sense for them to slide Crawford to 2nd, Toro to 3rd, and sign a big SS instead of picking up Seager's option. That option has grown to 19 million because of his performance. Not sure they pick that up. Rangers- I think they sign Story Phillies- everyone needs pitching. Their rotation isn't bad with Wheeler, Nola, Gibson, and Suarez. They need bullpen help but that doesn't have to be that expensive. If they sign a big SS they can move Didi. Might have to eat some salary, but even with a down year he can probably be moved. Yankees- I'm not 100% convinced they sign Judge long term. He's going to be nearing 31 when he hits free agency. Even so, the Yankees have the money to sign Judge and Correa if they want. You can't count on them being cheap all the time. They ducked under the tax and could go nuts now. If I had to guess I think they sign Seager to take advantage of the short porch in RF. Angels- they are stupid and have shown it over and over again about spending on hitting instead of pitching. They are rolling out Jack Mayfield on a regular basis at SS. They will sign or trade for a SS for sure. Cubs- they can easily add 100 million to their payroll this offseason. Correa is young enough to still be in his prime when they turn the corner on their rebuild. Nationals- Probably an unlikely team for Correa, but they only have 66 million on their payroll for next season. That is before arbitration 2 for Soto and a few other guys. So lets say 90 million on the books. They have carried a payroll in the 180-200 million dollar range since 2018. They can easily afford him if they want. They tried to extend Turner. They couldn't reach a deal so they traded him. Tigers- I forgot them on my list. They have a history of spending money (Verlander, Cabrera, etc). Obviously the connections with Hinch are there and they have some decent young pitching that whipped our butts. I think this would be a legit contender for Carlos.
Tigers are by far the most likely landing spot if he doesn't resign here. IMO he will either be a Tiger with JV joining him or he will be an Astro next year.
Lots of problems with your math. JV and Greinke is 57ish million off the books for the Astros. Correa is another 11.7 million. Then Joe Smith/Graveman is about another 4 million coming off. Raley is 2 million. So that is right around 75 million coming off the books. HOWEVER, McCullers, get a 10.5 million dollar raise in AAV, Gurriel, Pressly, Maldonado, Castro, and Baez all get raised adding another 6 million in payroll. Odorizzi has a salary of 8 million but his incentives that are easily reached next season will have him making 12-14 million next year so that's probably another 5 million in payroll from this season. 75 million - 10.5 - 6 - 5 = 53.5 million Then you have arbitration raises to Framber, James, Stanek, Diaz, Maton, and Montero if they keep him. Rough estimate.... that's an additonal 9 million in payroll. This also assumes no major changes to arbitration and player pay which I think is unlikely at this point. 53.5- 9 million = 44.5 million to spend to get back to the same payroll as last year. Then Brantley does come off the following season... HOWEVER, Bregman gets a 17 million dollar raise in real dollars. His AAV is still 20 million but is Crane going to not take that into account? Also, Framber, Urquidy, Tucker, Alvarez, Javier, Taylor, Stanek, and Maton will all bein arbitration that same offseason...... Astros aren't as flush with cash as people think.
But they’re also not as poor as you think either. Playoff revenue now becoming part of the budget (and no doubt contributed to the decision to extend Altuve in 2017 when they didn’t have to, and extend JV in 2019). Crane is looking at it as optimizing the 3 years they have left with Altuve/Bregman. Yes, they’re being paid a lot… there’s not much sense in having two (or three) highly priced stars around if they don’t think the team will compete during that time. There’s some potential arbitration fat they’ll have to shed to make it work if there’s still a tax. Teams in the Astros class have been able to afford at least one mega-deal under the current CBA, which Correa would be. The 3 year deals of Bregman/Altuve will fall into the Brantley/Verlander category of short-term/highly paid. They could do a lot worse than a luxury-tax threshold payroll and 3 years of Bregman/Altuve/Correa/Tucker/Alvarez… followed by another 2-3 years of Correa/Alvarez/Tucker/(farm system somebody)/Brantley free agent equivalent. Should also be known that even if you think the Rays are a juggernaut… the AL is still wide open. There are no Dodgers-equivalent super teams (minus the Astros).
The road games are taxed in the states they're played in, so the tax advantage is only for the home games. It seems silly to me, but that's the way they do Pro Players. Still a 10% savings on $15M/yr is still $1.5M/yr. I'd love an incentive laden contract that helps Carlos get his money IF he stays relatively healthy.
Crane has shown a willingness to lock in the guys he wants. It was completely reasonable prior to this season to not get locked into a lengthier deal before ensuring that last year’s back-injury free year was sustained (despite them still willing to go up to 6 years which a lot here thought was riskier). Crane seems to be the perfect combination of calculating but with a touch of sentiment. A health risk Correa was worth 6/125 to him… a less health risk Correa will have increased value to him. A deep playoff run with him front/center will spur Altuve-Verlander similar like intentions, but ultimately its Crane’s call as to how he wants this team to look for the next 3+ years. I do think Correa could be the perfect bridge between Altuve/Bregman and Alvarez/Tucker.
Crane has never done an 8-10 year deal. That's the issue more than anything. Paying Verlander 33 million for 2 years wasn't even near the same risk level.
Crane has also never been in a position to re-sign a 26 year old free agent that is the defacto team leader, plays a premium position, and is part of the best core of the best era in Astros history. I keep going back to him extending Altuve (and basically throwing away the dog-**** contract) when he didn’t have to. That’s the sentiment side of him. Also, 8-10 year deals don’t necessarily mean the player can’t be moved when the team is no longer in position to compete. And on the contrary, the 2 year 33 million extension really did blow up in their face, but that’s the price of competing… and the Astros (and Crane’s bottom line) did survive that.
I've seen them and he's still not Correa when you add in defense and Torres has been horrible defensively. Did Yankees fans hate Boggs? Clemens? I guess we'll see how it plays out.
8-10 year contracts. The problem is Correa has had back issues already. I can guarantee you a 33 Correa will have them. His numbers don’t justified that length of a contract.
Would winning another WS with the Astros this season increase Correa's chances of staying in Houston?
I agree with this. It is the years that is the issue. I think he’d do 5 yrs/150 in a second. Maybe even more per year, if he could keep it at five.
