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Anyone getting in line for Tesla Model 3?

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by CXbby, Mar 18, 2016.

  1. lpbman

    lpbman Member

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    Ford Lightning should be the first real volume competitor, and it should land a year before cybertruck. If they're sandbagging on range, hit the price points, and can actually put lots of trucks out the door... they'll have a huge win and it'll shake up the idea that Tesla has a perpetual monopoly on the future of personal transportation. As in, it ain't worth more than all other automakers combined and it's asinine that it's priced as such.
     
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  2. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    That is a severe lack of understanding of how the financial markets work. You should be asking why automakers are valued so low rather than crying about Tesla being so high. Automakers are saddled with 100s of billions in debt each, unfunded pension liabilities negotiated by corrupt unions, decades of low to no growth in a completely saturated market, and is on the verge of bankruptcy at the slightest sign of any economic downturn because they are so heavily leveraged. Gm and f were just bailed out by the government in the last recession using billions of tax payer dollars and gm had to go through bankruptcy, what sane investors would want to put money into that sinkhole, much less give it a high valuation?

    Tesla is not valued to monopolize the future of transport, nor will it need to do that to continue to increase in value. It however is currently the 800lb gorilla in the largest total addressable market industry in the world, it generated over $1b in net income in the latest quarter which was up 1000% year over year, it has more cash than debt on its balance sheet, it is not a union shop and not beholden to their mafia tactics, and it’s profitability is expanding as it reaches higher scale, as opposed to other automakers profit margins shrinking as tighter and tighter global emissions standards squeeze their bottom lines.

    When you compare the value of Tesla vs other automakers it’s makes Tesla look a bit silly, just as it would have had you compared Amazon’s value to a book store. What goes into an EV is drastically different than what goes into an internal combustion engine car, from the technology, the manufacturing process, to the profit margin. If you compared Tesla, purely as a business, cash flow, with other businesses that are growing at the same rate, it becomes a lot less silly. Still expensive, it is the frontrunner in one of the most lucrative and massive industries in the world after all, no one will sell you those shares for cheap, but at least that would be the right frame of mind to start thinking about how to value the business.
     
    #862 CXbby, Aug 31, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2021
  3. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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  4. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Brought to you by the same guys:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.motortrend.com/news/chevrolet-bolt-ev-2017-car-of-the-year/amp

    “The Bolt EV sets a benchmark for value and performance they'll have to work overtime to match. "This is a direct challenge for Tesla to make the Model 3 anything near the Bolt EV for the same price," executive editor Mark Rechtin said. "Chevrolet has made affordable long-range electric transportation available to the masses. Elon Musk should be afraid. Very, very afraid."

    4 years later these things are spontaneously combusting death traps.
     
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  5. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Speaking of asinine prices, Rivian going for a $80b valuation at ipo before delivering a single vehicle or generating a dime of revenue takes the cake. I made a lot of money shorting NKLA and I’ll be damned if I’m not shorting every share of Rivian I can get my hands on at ipo.

    edit: btw I’m sure it’s no coincidence that publications that make their money selling ad space to automakers happens to give glowing reviews to automaker about to go public trying to generate as much hype as possible. SHORT
     
    #865 CXbby, Aug 31, 2021
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2021
  6. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    There are a couple points that should be made. First, the idea that any current model out there will dethrone Tesla. Im not approaching this from a pro-Tesla stand point, but simply from a mass production and supply chain management perspective. The Bolt has been a disaster. The Mach-E might make some headway, but it has a long ways to go to reach mass production. The Lightning hasn't made it out the door. Nobody should expect the Cyber Truck to be successful. I do see value in it being an armored vehicle. We are 3-4 years out before we see another EV maker out there hit mass production and survive. Again, supply chain issues are not an excuse for failure to deliver mass production, Tesla or not.

    Take the iPhone. In its inception, it was basically a ipod with a phone and a pretty screen. Jobs saw a handheld computing device. When most people look at Tesla, they see an EV. But they fail to understand the current Tesla battery solution is obsolete, even if it is cutting edge. Instead, view it as a software platform seamlessly integrated into a hardware platform on wheels. 12 years later, very few people use the ipod function on their iPhone and texting is massively outpacing the voice function on their smartphones. Smartphones are no different. A software platform integrated into dozens of hardware sensors on a portable handheld device.
     
  7. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    lol. Interior looks almost as bad as Tesla's... and yikes, that price. It's sad what they said about the UI, but there was a lot of backlash with simple functionality being placed in the GUI on a lot of current vehicles. It required swipes and pushes and clicks sometimes 2 or 3 menus deep when in a "normal" car, you'd just reach over and change what you needed to change. Like ... the AC. I think the previous gen Caddy UI "buttonless" interfaces pissed people off because of that. They started returning the dials and buttons for some of that functionality in the next gen.
     
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  8. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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  9. Jugdish

    Jugdish Member

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    But I bet the Bolt's panel gaps are on point.
     
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  10. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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  11. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    That SUV is really nice-looking and the crab walk is still a trip to watch. Sadly, I really have no use for anything that monstrous. The thing is 4.5+ tons. Dayum. Keep 'em coming and start bringing the prices down, please. :D
     
  12. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    • GF Berlin, Oct approval.
    • Tesla is going to spell Tesla on GF Austin roof for planes landing on airport near by.
    • He is praising the Tesla team for their hard work
    • "FSD 10 is quite profound, a revelation, is the future; V10 next week and “button request” 2 weeks after that" Elon said
    • Elon said Tesla is considering Model 2 not having steering wheel and pedals and just roll the dice on FSD
    • Tesla won't call the $25k model the "Model2". "Only did Model 3 cause Ford had model E trademark so we just did model 3 to troll them"
    • Open charging network very soon, starting maybe next month using Tesla app. It will start in Europe.
    • The Cybertruck has been delayed to late 2022. "Production starting late 2022 and volume production in 2023"
    • Elon is expecting to grow by a factor of 10 at least
    • Elon is maybe going to Mars in about 10 years he said
    • Robo Van in the future, to address people with disability.
     
  13. Buck Turgidson

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    Tesla autopilot kill anyone today?
     
  14. Space Ghost

    Space Ghost Contributing Member

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    Apparently its pro life. So clearly its saving lives

     
  15. Buck Turgidson

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    And weeeeee're off [to the D&D]

     
  16. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    lol. With Teslas and Bolts catching fire spontaneously, I hope by the time I'm ready to go electric, they have these issues fixed. Y'all keep beta testing them for me. :D
     
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  17. TheRealist137

    TheRealist137 Member

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    Cybertruck delayed again lmao. Who is betting that they’ll cancel that trimotor 500 mile version for “reasons” just like they canceled the Plaid +
     
  18. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Teslas don’t catch fire spontaneously like the Bolt. They did however figure out what happened in the Texas crash that made national news a couple months ago.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-autopsy-shows-alcohol-exceeding-texas-limit

    So the guy was drunk and had twice the legal alcohol limit. Of course this comes out on a Friday afternoon before long weekend and doubt it even makes local headlines.
     
  19. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    They canceled the plaid+ because the 4680 cells are not ready. Cybertruck is predicated on those cells, hence the delay. 1.3m reservations at the moment, who is betting they outsell the “lightning” by 10x even after giving it a year head start?
     
  20. Dr of Dunk

    Dr of Dunk Clutch Crew

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    Well, I was referring to the ones like those in this article : https://www.businessinsider.com/cou...charging-overnight-caused-a-house-fire-2021-8 and a Plaid that caught fire while somebody was driving it, or the Model X that caught fire somewhere in Europe a couple of days ago. Not sure what became of those. Maybe they have reasons, too.
     
    Buck Turgidson likes this.

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