Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:49 AM CDT Monday August 30, 2021 Ida Tropical Storm Ida will continue to push inland over Mississippi today while weakening. Despite weakening, the storm will be capable of producing flooding rainfall, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. It will merge with a frontal boundary over Tennessee by Wednesday. By the later portion of the week, it is expected to bring rainfall to the northeastern United States as a non-tropical system. Tropical Depression Ten Tropical Depression Ten is about 800 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. It remains weak under high wind shear. However, upper-level conditions are expected to become gradually more favorable. Therefore, we continue to think it will become a tropical storm as it pushes farther north into the Atlantic this week. It is no threat to land. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 37 has been recognized in the southwestern Caribbean. It is a trough of low pressure producing disorganized, yet heavy, thunderstorm activity. It is expected to move towards Central America and southern Mexico over the next few days. No computer model is showing development. However, conditions are somewhat favorable for development. There are no indications that it will track into the northern Gulf of Mexico. The primary concern will be heavy rainfall. The chance of development within 48 hours is zero percent. The chance of development within 7 days is 30 percent. Disturbance 35 has emerged off the coast of Africa. It is a strong disturbance moving into a favorable environment. Computer models remain aggressive regarding development and the chance of development continues to increase. High pressure to the north will propagate the system westward over the next few days. Beyond then, a turn to the west-northwest is expected. Current model data continues to suggest that it will track too far north to impact the Caribbean. The chance of development within 48 hours is 60 percent. The chance of development within 7 days is 90 percent. Disturbance 36 is falling a part. It is expected to completely dissipate off the Carolina Coast today. No development is expected. We have removed it from our analysis.
BR was spared the worst. NO got hit hard. It's always a waiting game after these events. Lost contact will all my family and friends in BR shortly after midnight. Able to get one text from one person this morning - trees down everywhere and he's checking the extend of the damages to his house, but safe. And 172mph!
Local news said expect no power for 21 days and no water for 5 days in Jefferson parish (NO included). Must be extensive power infrastructure damages.
There are apparently 8 transmission lines that deliver New Orleans' power. All of them apparently got severed during the storm.
A local emergency management guy said on NPR this morning that they're expecting 6 weeks until Jefferson parish is back on the grid. He did say the levees have done remarkably well all over southern Louisiana, only a couple of very minor breaches. But the electrical business... he called it catastrophic and worst than predicted by models of CAT 4 direct hit.
It's crazy how all 8 paths went down. 8 were supposed to provide redundancy. Local news interviewed the CEO of Entery. The 400' electric tower by the Mississippi River that collapsed is a component of one of the 8 paths. That one is not coming back anytime soon. Entergy is now accessing to see which path they can bring up quickly and if they can't, they will have to start local generation for a short period. They said they don't know how long before some power is restored yet until they have at least some assessment. But likely at least a week at min. This is going to be a major crisis with the hospitals (at capacity and nowhere to transfer them to) there likely on backup generation for only a few more days, with water treatment plants under the same strain and so on for other critical services and infrastructures. Plus the heat for everyone without AC.
Supposed to beefed up after Katrina and Gustav to handle Cat5. But that turns out to only be for critical components and not the transmission line. Apparently the only solution for transmission lines (36k miles) is to bury them at a cost of 10s of Billion.
This should be front page news all over with calls for assistance. Yet somehow it is like the 8th headline. Worried for NOLA.
There has always been a thing with utility companies from elsewhere coming to help disaster area and from what I read, lots of help coming to restore power…
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:45 AM CDT Tuesday August 31, 2021 Ida is a weakening tropical depression that is currently over northeast Mississippi. The depression is expected to merge with a frontal boundary within the next 24 hours. However, heavy rainfall is expected to spread to the northeast, along the track of Ida. The heaviest rain is expected to occur from eastern West Virginia through Pennsylvania, where 4 to 8 inches is forecast. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Kate Kate is a minimal tropical storm more 1045 miles SE of Bermuda. It is moving to the north near 6 mph. While Kate is forecast to turn to the northwest tomorrow, it is expected to remain well east of Bermuda. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 37 is located in the SW Caribbean. It is expected to move slowly to the west-northwest over the next few days. This is expected to cause the system to interact with Nicaragua and Honduras before it moves over Belize later this week. While environmental conditions are favorable for development, land interaction is expected to hinder the system from developing. If anything were to form, it likely would be a depression or a weak tropical storm. There are no indications that the system will move toward the northern Gulf of Mexico. There is a 10 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 30 percent chance of development within the next 7 days. Disturbance 35 has been repositioned to near 9.5N, 17.5W. The disturbance is expected to move to the west-northwest near 15 mph. This will keep the system over the open Atlantic. There is no threat to the islands of the eastern Caribbean. The disturbance is well-organized, and the environmental conditions appear to be rather favorable for significant development. There is a 90 percent chance of development within the next 48 hours and a 100 percent chance of development within the next 7 days.
Post Ida recap... As I mentioned, I live east of Baton Rouge. My boss texted me Saturday about 5pm... "Hey! Storm is turning east away from BR! This is great" He had forgotten I live 45 minutes out. Wind was crazy, crazy. Like Ive been through multiple big storms and this was just way stronger. The rain was not crazy but it was essentially sideways. Took sleeping pill about 8 or 9pm after power died. And I stayed awake a few hours after that, unsure if it was a tornado at each gust. Eventually fell asleep. -Entire fence ****** up -Pigs house destroyed -Gazebo roof panels blown off -Roof leaked a bit in different rooms. -Trampoline literally flew into shed. My area was ravaged. Power came on but many are not as lucky yet. Waiting for gas for hours if you want it. I went to Laplace the lst couple mornings For work. This is about 20 minutes from New Orleans and I have never in my life seen that sort of widespread destruction it was crazy and I almost hit a tree in the road early this morning. That entire area literally looks like a giant tornado went through it but it spread over miles and miles. aRecovery is gonna take forever.
That's so disgusting to jump into that water. Sewage and **** mixes in with all that. Hope that guy didn't catch anything trying to be funny.
