My current offseason realistic wishlist: Resign Graveman and Verlander Sign Chris Taylor Extend Alvarez and Framber
I would be fine with that offseason. However, I don't see the point in extending Framber yet. He's got 4 years of arbitration starting next season and will be 32 when he is a free agent. I doubt he makes 10 million the next 2 years in arbitration.
Interesting tidbits from my "source of amusement" spreadsheets. Of the 9 teams we are over-achieving against, all but one would be above .500 against the rest of baseball after subtracting games against the Astros. (Please note overachieving is better than our .590 winning percentage, not 500.) * indicates Division Opponent. TB .617 CWS .603 *OAK .600 BOS .581 *SEA .559 TOR .535 *LAA .518 CLE .513 *TEX .355
I love that you have such a massive hardon for Chris Taylor. Is he cheaper and/or better than the other options?
I expect him to represent a very good value, especially to a team like Houston. I could be wrong. But between Correa at $280M/9yr or Taylor at $70M/4yr, give me Taylor every time.
Aren't there other options? Between and such? eta: I'll also point out that he's 31 next year, Marwin is 32, the downside is coming
Yes, there are a lot of options. Free agents: Correa, Seager, Story, Semien, Baez, Simmons, Galvis, Iglesias, Villar Trade: Rojas, K Marte, Gregorius, Segura, Torres I think as a very versatile player Taylor is a good fit for Houston between them having a young/unproven CF, 2 good SS prospects who could be ready in 2022, and a few older players who probably should be rested more frequently. I view Taylor as a much better/safer player than Marwin but agree there is some age risk, but a 4 year deal (which is long as I would go) wouldn’t carry too much risk, especially since at <$20M/yr he could be used as a bench player if he wasn’t that good, and it wouldn’t be crippling financially.
I get get feeling Click and Dusty aren't seeing eye to eye on playing time. Click seems to be forcing his hand with roster moves and Dusty seems to be making retaliatory moves. I can see Click adding Bregman and Dusty sitting him just to make a point.
Click will not activate Bregman just to stick it to Baker and Baker won't keep Bregman on the bench to spite Click. He'll be activated when they all feel he's ready to go and he'll play as much as his health and conditioning allow.
1. Semien will 100% get a qualifying offer so he would cost the Astros 2nd highest pick in next years draft plus 500k in international money. 2. He probably ends up getting a contract similar to what the Astros offered Correa at 5-6 years between 20-25 million per. I expect the SS for the Astros to be Correa or Pena next season. My money is on Pena with Diaz as the backup plan. Taylor makes some sense because he can play every position but catcher and be a legit offensive weapon. If Correa is leaving I would rather go young at SS with Pena and spend the money on pitching.
Astros minor-league notes: Garrett Stubbs at second base, Jeremy Peña’s rehab progress and so long Francis Martes https://theathletic.com/2780445/202...as-rehab-progress-and-so-long-francis-martes/ For a few years now, Garrett Stubbs has lobbied for an opportunity to play some infield in the minor leagues. The Astros’ No. 3 catcher, who is much smaller but also more athletic than most who play the position, recognizes the value of positional versatility. Being a quasi-super-utility type might be his best path to carving out a role in the majors. Recently, Stubbs has gotten a chance to play second base with Triple-A Sugar Land. Since Aug. 8, he has played six games at second for the Skeeters as opposed to three at catcher. His opportunity came in large part because middle infielders Miguelangel Sierra and Alex De Goti were injured at the same time, and the Skeeters have three catchers. So the natural question is whether this latest Astros positional experiment is a real thing or just your run-of-the-mill minor-league funkiness, like when Tyler White played a handful of games at shortstop at Triple A in 2017-18? Stubbs, for one, is hoping for the former. “I feel like it is or at least should be a thing because I feel like I can play over there,” he said earlier this week at Sugar Land’s Constellation Field. “When I look around the league at different players and (see) how they’re staying in the big leagues, getting to the big leagues, versatility is huge. So I think that it is a thing. I think it should be a thing. I want it to be a thing. I have fun over there. I know what I can do behind the plate. I think that they know what I can do behind the plate.” The 5-foot-10, 170-pound Stubbs has held his own at second in his limited action. To be a viable infield option in the majors, like he’s been in the corner outfield late in lopsided games, Stubbs would need more repetitions. However, Stubbs sprained his right ankle on a slide Thursday night, and it’s unclear how much time he will miss. Stubbs, 28, is batting .280/.415/.383 in 135 plate appearances in Triple A this season. He’s been called up to the majors five times this year but has gotten only 25 plate appearances in those five stints. The Astros feel like they are set at catcher with Martín Maldonado as their starter and Jason Castro as the backup. Depending on the severity of his ankle sprain, Stubbs has a chance at being a September call-up (rosters expand from 26 to 28 on Sept. 1) and at being included on a 26-man playoff roster as a third catcher/additional pinch runner/emergency fielder. Like so many up-and-down position players before him, Stubbs’ long-term place with the Astros is murky. Maldonado and Castro are both due back in 2022, and catcher prospect Korey Lee, arguably the organization’s top overall prospect, might be ready to debut at some point next season. Lee, who has reached Double A, is not yet on the Astros’ 40-man roster. Stubbs has one more minor-league option year remaining after this season. For the Astros, there wouldn’t appear to be any downside in letting Stubbs continue to mix in playing time at second base when he’s not catching. Being able to fill in as an infielder and an outfielder in addition to being a catcher could only add to Stubbs’ potential value on a 26-man major-league roster. Coming into this season, Stubbs had made only three starts as an infielder, all at second base in Triple A in 2019. His recent stretch marked the first time he played the infield in consecutive games, let alone six times in a seven-game stretch as he did with Sugar Land. He did dabble as a super-utility type at USC, especially early in his college tenure. “My first weekend at USC as a freshman, I started my first game in left field, started the second game in center field and then moved to third base by the end of the game, and then caught on Sunday. That was fun,” he said. “I feel like I’m reverting back to a little bit of that role.” _____________________________________________ Shortstop Jeremy Peña, who has spent the minor-league season rehabbing from left wrist surgery he had in April, began a rehab assignment in the Florida Complex League on Monday. If all goes well, he should get into games with Sugar Land before the Skeeters’ season ends Oct. 3. Even a taste of Triple A would benefit the 23-year-old Peña, who’s also a candidate for the Arizona Fall League or winter ball. As one of the Astros’ three or four best prospects, he’s a lock to be added to the 40-man roster in the offseason as protection from the Rule 5 Draft. Being on the roster coming into spring training will give him a good chance to debut at some point in 2022. The 6-foot, 205-pound Peña, a 2018 third-round draft pick out of the University of Maine, is a physical specimen who is known for his work ethic and athleticism. The son of former Cardinals second baseman Gerónimo Peña, he’s always had a reputation for being an excellent defender. The question remains Peña’s bat, which improved in his last minor-league season in 2019, when he was in Low A and High A. He also had a great winter ball season in the Dominican Republic last offseason. The Astros do not have a clear heir apparent at shortstop if they don’t re-sign Carlos Correa in free agency, but Peña is their best prospect at the position who has a chance to play there at the major-league level in 2022. The attempted conversion of Pedro León from center fielder to shortstop could be interpreted as a hedge against Peña not panning out offensively, but León (who’s currently out with a fractured left pinky) faces swing-and-miss questions in addition to uncertainty as to whether he can actually be a shortstop in the majors. Peña and León appear to be in line to begin next season in Triple A. _____________________________________________ Shawn Dubin is another player approaching his Rule 5 eligible offseason. And while he’s probably too intriguing of a prospect for the Astros to leave unprotected, it’s hardly a no-brainer. The 6-foot-1, 175-pound right-hander with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and two power breaking balls has a 5.81 ERA in only 26 1/3 innings in Triple A. His strikeouts per nine innings (11.6) and walks per nine (3.8) look normal for him, but his four home runs allowed have contributed to his inflated ERA. He also went about two months between outings from late May to late July because of an arm injury he described this week as lateral inflammation in his elbow. “It was just one of those things that was kind of nagging,” he said. “No major damage or anything.” Dubin has pitched as a starter and a reliever in the Astros’ tandem system, but his highest pitch count since he returned from his injury is only 51. His velocity and pitch shapes are there and he said he’s felt good, but he’s been working to find his release points after the layoff. The time he missed would seem to make him a good candidate for the Arizona Fall League or winter ball, though the Triple-A season does run later than usual this year. “I haven’t heard anything yet. I’d imagine it’s definitely a possibility, just to kind of make up some of those innings,” Dubin said. “But I’m still waiting to find out.” _____________________________________________ The quiet end of Francis Martes’ tenure with the Astros this week is yet another reminder about how even the most exciting prospects have considerable bust potential. Martes was an elite prospect in 2016-17 — Baseball America ranked him 20th among all prospects in 2016 and 15th in 2017 — and the Astros could’ve conceivably anchored a blockbuster-type trade around him in either of those two years. They chose to hang on to him, and 54 1/3 innings of below-average major-league performance (5.80 ERA) in 2017 is all they got. At his best, the stocky right-hander had an upper-90s fastball and a tantalizing power curveball. But even when he was garnering massive prospect buzz, there were always questions about his command that gave him reliever risk. The 2018 season is when his trajectory took a major turn for the worse. He barely pitched that season before going down with an injury and had Tommy John surgery in August of that year. In March 2019, he was suspended 80 games for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. In February 2020, he was suspended 162 games for another positive PED test. Martes returned from suspension in June and pitched terribly in Triple A. The Astros designated him for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot later in June, and he passed through waivers unclaimed by the other 29 teams. He had a 13.11 ERA with a 1.032 opponent OPS and 20 walks in 11 2/3 innings in Triple A before he moved to the Florida Complex League on Aug. 2. He was released by the Astros on Monday.
Maybe if Pena was healthy and performed well this season I could see this as a possibility, but since he hasn't played nearly at all this year that would be a very risky move when the Astros have plenty of money for better options. Diaz can surely hit well enough for SS but he's not been very good as a defender at SS (-21 career DRS), and thus would be tough to stomach as the starting SS should Pena flop. I think Correa or any player that will require a contract of the length he will receive is a non-starter for this FO, but I think they'll prefer to have at least a guy who can field the position competently in place (even if he can't hit) should they strike out on their primary targets.
