I don't think the strategy is to purposely lose (e.g. tank) but rather the reality is that no team with four 1st round picks from the same draft on their roster has ever made the playoffs. I don't have the stats/examples handy but I'm confident that's never been done. The end results steer more towards lottery-bound than playoff-bound which, if it IS the case, should mean the Rockets won't have any incentive to win games at the end of the season. Of course if everything breaks right and we trade away Wall and/or Gordon then getting a high pick next summer becomes more of a reality.
The simple fact is that getting Green, and to a lesser extent Sengun and KPJ, as much burn as possible is the single most important goal of this season. That does not portend a lot of winning. They will all take their lumps but, hopefully, will come out the other side much better players moving forward.
See how it plays out. I think we will see flashes of greatness but still lose a ton of games. A lot will be lost in the last 5 mins. But it will be exciting
Dynasty? Is that even possible anymore? Look how rapidly GSW and Toronto descended from recent championships. The league is too star-centered for dynasties anymore.
And the Suns and Hawks did it the right way and went to the Finals and Eastern Conference Finals respectively. Golden State did it the right way too and they built a dynasty. Even the Nets did it the right way until they were in the position to use what they had built to lure in top free agents and a disgruntled star. You're pointing at poorly ran franchises as an example of why you shouldn't tank and that's just a strawman. Here is the hard truth. If you are a poorly ran franchise you are completely ****ed whether you tank or try to win now. There is no route in which you can be successful. That goes doubly if you're in a town like Excremento or Minneapolis. The team you pointed at as possibly turning the corner did so after they obtained new management. They appear to no longer be a poorly ran franchise and, surprise surprise, they are now beginning to reap the rewards of making smart decisions in the margins. All we can do is hope we are still a well run organization that is capable of optimizing the tank. If we are not, then it literally does not matter which direction we go in. We'll be ****ed until significant changes take place in the front office.
How is 5 finals with 3 wins not a dynasty? That’s been by my count from memory only 4 other times in the last 40+ years.
Toronto was always going to be a one-hit wonder because Kawhi never had an interest in staying beyond that one year. The Warriors, on the other hand, was a dynasty and can probably regain their elite status if Klay comes back 100% healthy and their young guys (Wiseman, Kuminga, Moody) can contribute as role players. Dynasties can be built but the pathway involves drafting and hitting on your picks.
The rockets will be lucky to win close to 30 games this year. any thoughts of making playoffs is just delusional.
I am seeing 25/26 wins as the best case scenario - this is still a very young team with a lot to learn but I think it's a promising start to the rebuild. I think Houston is very fortunate to be in the position it is in - the "big" contracts we have left are all on a timetable that suits our rebuild so sitting on them isn't the end of the world because with the amount of people we have on rookie deals, we would have to pay middling talent to multi-year deals to use cap space to reach the cap floor if not. It's going to take 2 years to really KNOW what we got with Green, Sengun, JC, and Garuba anyway, and the same for the guys we are going to be drafting next year when we likely have another top 10 lotto pick. The best thing Houston can do is not pay people to take Wall/Ego's contract. If you can obtain positive value, you do it but it better be heavy on young players or future picks on our time frame. I think the reality though is that we won't find takers for our big contracts that are suitable for our timeframe(trading $40mil in contract requires taking similar money back and that most certainly will be longer deals) so it would be in our best interest to let Wall and Gordon's contracts expire naturally and then go shopping for needs at that time with an eye to contract length and cost that fits the timetable of when we have to start paying our rookies. Let's commit to building a core through the draft and supplementing YOUNG role players through FA(maybe even playing the RFA roulette game to try to steal a promising young guy coming off his rookie deal). Grab as many draft assets as you can for the next 2 years and once we have to pay Green and crew, THEN we have to start thinking to the future. Right now we are at our dumbest point in understanding the future career of these players so we need to defer decisions that limit flexibility for as long as we can until we have better data of how good we think our players will be, how well they fit out system, how close they are to their ceiling, etc. I think the strategy now is draft well, lock in decent players at below market value to their production(generally the case with younger players) and then DON'T be scared to flip those young players for older better players to pair with your young star core(IE. the rebuild like Phoenix method). At one point when you know who your future core is, you start adding vet talent around them. Key takeaways: - don't commit to any long term contracts until we have had a good look at the development of our rookies(ideally for the next 2 years) - when looking at signing/trades - think positive value role players for now, no star chasing, no projects if they aren't on rookie deals, and no rehab projects that would take minutes away from our future core of rookies. - the young guys who are future role players(not core guys) - don't be afraid to package them for vet talent or future draft stock. At some point we will start having a core that takes 80%+ of our cap and those future draft picks you negotiate now will be a great way to add above average talent later on when the cap doesn't give you much flexibility to play the FA market. - Christian Wood's timetable is not quite the same as the rest of our young core AND he has shown he has been fragile - I wouldn't turn down a good offer for him to reset that timeframe while we are in rebuild mode. Given there are a lot of bigs in next year's draft class I would low key shop him this year to start figuring out his value around the league.
Strategy is to play brokedown Wall and Gordon since they're still under contract while letting our rookies light it up on the Vipers. I'm looking forward to 2023.
Not saying you're wrong, but how did the Harden trade bring short term and long term without tanking last year? Edit: are you using the trade FOR Harden as the example?
I was referring to what lead to the Harden years. We were borderline lottery/8th seed for years and eventually wound up with a contending team. In that same time frame, some teams continually sucked and still never made it as far as us. Tanking is not guaranteed at all.
Another top 5 pick would be nice. The West is too good to worry about making the playoffs this season.
I think it all depends on how well Jalen Green does/ how healthy Jalen Green is. Same thing with Kevin Porter and Wood. If the three of them somehow prove to be a formidable big 3 then the rebuild is over. The most important thing is to help jalen green, wood and kevin porter jr, sengun physically nba ready. That hamstring should strike fear into any Rockets fan.
I think we end up right around the 26- win range. We should get a pick around #8 this year that we can fold into our rotation. While I may not call it a "core", I think we could move forward considering our foundation to be Green, Wood, Sengun, KPJ, Martin, Tate, Garuba, Christopher, and 2022 FRP. That's 9 players, which would essentially be a rotation. They just need to fill out their bench with hole-filling role players (Theis, Nwaba, etc.). Some of these players likely won't pan out, or may not be an ideal fit, but they probably get swapped out with similarly paid guys. By letting Wall and Gordon play out their contracts, you are looking at $70+million in cap space in 2023. Based on a $122million cap, you could re-sign Wood at his max alottment (approximately $36million) and still have enough to sign another player with 6 years or less in the league to a max deal. The only other foundational piece you would need to worry about that summer is Tate. None of the draft picks from this year will be a concern until 3 more years down the road. It won't play out exactly like this (Wood may not end up being worth a max contract), but I would try to stick with this formula. No need to muck things up by buying out or trading Wall and Gordon unless a really good deal falls in their lap. Let it play out and continue to develop and make smart draft picks. 2024 could be a really good year.
The Vegas win totals are completely in line with my thinking. There is a group of 6 lottery teams and then another clump after them. Vegas Win Totals for 2021/2022 OKC - 23.5 ORL - 24 HOU - 25.5 DET - 25.5 CLE - 28.5 SAS - 28.5 — MIN - 34.5 WAS - 34.5 SAC - 34.5 CHA - 36.5 TOR - 37.5 NOP - 38.5 CHI - 39.5 MEM - 41 —
