Lots of talk about contending for the playoffs this year...This makes no sense to me as we've FINALLY...STARTED to rebuild. Many of us wanted this from Les, but he wouldn't have it. Now, that it's underway, let's show some patience and get it right. No short term gratification. This is about trying to set up a dynasty. We need to roll with this year...Our Rockets are likely headed for a spot in the 1 - 8 range....in a loaded draft...where we own our pick. I'm pretty sure Stone will make a move for another good pick. Wall needs to be dealt after this year as an expiring to facilitate a deal for a young star. That's enough from me for now. Let's hear your thoughts.
Short term gratification also led to long term gratification w harden trade. Meanwhile, the kings, the Knicks and all the other perpetual bottom feeders “did it the right way” and they still suck. Knicks might FINALLY be coming around. you can get High draft picks years in a row and still not ever form a competing team. I’ll go for the supposed “short term gratification” of trying to win then the “let’s suck and hope we get better because of it.” Never tank.
Harden was the exception, not the norm.(Morey was charged with an almost impossible task by Les and pulled it off) The % play is what we've currently been doing. Then, when positioned, we add to what we have with the aforementioned expiring of Wall, etc....
We won’t intentionally tank this year like we did last year, but it is highly unlikely we make the playoffs. I hope that if we are within 4 or 5 games at the deadline, we don’t do anything stupid and give away future assets to trade for a middlin veteran to try and get in.
best case they are fighting for the play in (if they are still doing that) this season .. next year closer to an 8 seed. 2023 they are ready and make noise as the next "young and up and coming team" - So much so that they sign Embiid in that offseason and get to the finals in 2024. Wood, Wall, and Ego will be moved in my scenario during those 3 years. 2024 lineup Scooter Thriller KMJ Sengun Embiid bench: Armoni, JC, Usman, 2022 Draft pick, 2023 Draft pick, Random FA's
I like it, although I’m not sure Seguin and Embid are a good fit. How about Jokic and Sequin? Don’t think that’s a great fit either but what fun!
I have this weird and probably ill fated need for Stone to go steal Joel Embiid away from Morey. It just seems to close the time space continuum that some dudes here have for Ex Rocket employees. As far as fit - it might be seem off now, but Im thinking that Sengun in year 4 will have developed a game that compliments almost any player - fingers crossed! Yeah this is fun! Almost like how we would spend our lotto winnings if we ever hit a jackpot!
I expect the Rockets to be involved in a lot more close/entertaining games this season but still to end up losing more often than not. I voted 19-25 wins but I could see them end up closer to 30 if they stay healthy and the vets embrace their roles rather than focus on auditioning for other squads. As for strategy, I was originally in the @Verbal Christ camp of drafting a foundation to lure a big time FA. However, I am not sure anymore. I think the Rockets lucked out in that their rebuild coincides with some pretty loaded drafts. To point @Kevooooo made, there are a lot of teams whose rebuild never got off the ground. I think a lot of that is because they ended up drafting marginally and then threw money at the best free agents who werent all that great. It doesnt matter how high your pick is if there isnt talent available. Which brings me to my strategy. I think the next contending Rockets team will feature KPJ, Green and Sengun along with their top pick in 2022. That core will be surrounded by Tate, KMart, Garuba and Christopher along with other draft picks and some veteran additions to help teach the kids. Wood is the great question for me. I dont want to invest in him unless he can both be a positive veteran influence as well as be the guy on a team that can make some noise in the playoffs. I dont expect to win a title with Wood as the #1 guy but if he can get Green, Sengun and company some playoff experience all the while being a good soldier and helping the kids along then I might consider investing in him strategically (ie he comes off the books when the kid's payday come due). If he isnt/cant be that guy then he will be moved for draft capital at the deadline or prior to the 2022 draft. Unlike many rebuilding teams, the Rockets have a chance to build a culture by building primarily through the draft. Get these guys into your system before they pick up bad habits from other teams. That is how every dynasty not the Lakers have done it. Luckily enough there is talent there for the Rockets to go that route. Dream 2024 playoff rotation: PG KPJ/Kennedy Chandler* SG Green/Christopher SF Adrian Griffin Jr**/Tate/Martin PF Garuba/Griffin/Tate/Martin C - Sengun/Garuba/Ibou Badji*** * Chandler selected with Miami's pick in the 2022 draft. More distributor than scorer, he would be a nice change of pace behind KPJ ** Griffin selected with Rockets' 2022 lottery pick. Small forward with outlandish upside that I think would be able to play some 4 in small ball lineups against all but elite power forwards *** Selected in Round 2 of 2022 with an acquired pick. Would likely be a bit player given his lack of skill but his physical tools are amazing.
Under this scenario all 4 of our picks turn into legitimate nba starters and a sixth man. I like it, but think it is highly unlikely that they all develop into that. I think we get another really good rookie next year and then go shopping in 2023 for a super star.
I don't think (which could be a foolish statement to make) this team will see another 20+ game losing streak this season so...maybe 20-62 as the floor and 26-56 as the ceiling? It's hard to see the team winning any more games considering: 1. Wall and Gordon will be in and out of the lineup due to their regularly-scheduled injuries 2. Wood, God forbid, might miss some games next season 3. Our rookies will play heavy minutes ...or should play heavy minutes The only hope is that this coming season will be a learning experience for our rookies
Draft picks are not a sure shot to success. Luck played a crucial role in getting No.2 pick with Green in probably one of the best draft class and even bigger luck by landing Sengun. The way I see it is if KPJ, Green, Sengun and Wood gel and plays really well together which gives us wins then why not go for the wins or even try for playoffs?! If healthy, they are all young and can become a solid team in the next couple years. If Green/Sengun/KPJ turns to be promising stars in the making this upcoming season then Rockets should rather plan on surrounding missing and proven complementary players around them rather than focusing on another potential star project and crowding the roster. Besides Wall//Gordon, if they stick around, and Wood are going to compete for wins at this stage in their career. Hoping and feel they are great complements to our young core of Green/Sengun/KPJ. So tankathon should not be the projected plan until midway through the season.
No one wants to lose but which of top 10 teams from last year do you think we can overtake, if all teams (including Houston) stays healthy? Jazz Suns Nuggets Clippers Mavericks Blazers Lakers Grizzlies Warriors Spurs We MIGHT be able to overtake the Spurs given the lack of all-NBA level talent they currently have right now but, at the end of the day, is getting a potential play-in game worth it for a rebuilding team? I rather just miss the playoffs and get a higher draft pick which could always be used as a trade chip for something better to help this team get back on track faster.
But how unlikely is it really? Green and Sengun have already shown in professional leagues against pros that they are well above average so I dont think that is a very big stretch. Garuba hasnt been a world beater so far but also has shown in Spain and in international comp that he can play some mean defense. I tagged him as a role player in my scenario above. I dont expect much more from him than good defense and to be a connector on offense that can finish at the cup. Again, not a stretch I dont think. Now, Christopher. I am projecting with him. He strikes me as the most likely rookie not to develop. My hope is that the Rockets put him on the Cuttino Mobley plan of having him work at the 1 this season (mostly at RGV) to try and foster more of the facilitating part of the game. Then, next season, have him return to his more natural shooting guard spot with that experience under his belt. I am hoping he could end up being a combo guard similar to, but a notch or two below, KPJ. I wouldnt want him to be my primary backup 1 but as a backup 2 that can facilitate some? I think he can be that. My hesitation on fa superstars is really all about Tilman. I can see him paying the tax for a contender but I cant see him doing what GS does with the tax. I am afraid that an Embiid would hamper the Rockets' ability to re-sign a lot of these young guys who, hopefully, develop and have a lot in the tank. I could be convinced otherwise. Certainly if the kids dont seem to develop. But if they do...
Vegas has us in the bottom tier with OKC in the West. Spurs, Kings And Wolves slightly ahead of us. Next group after that is Pelicans, Grizz and Blazers. I think we have a good shot at being the best of the bottom 5, but I don’t see it as a lock. After that the Pelicans feel like the only team above that I could see falling apart. Blazers if they trade Dame for a full rebuild package and not a win now package. Absolute best case scenario and everything goes right for us and all the other things go wrong for others and I could see a play in berth with a pretty sub par record. Most likely out come, without exceptional luck I think we are picking in the 4-8 range in the draft. And I think that should be the plan. After that it’s time to set our eyes on the play in.
Well, this all depends on how the Rockets perform. If your scenario turns out to be true then it makes sense to skip playoffs and use the higher draft pick as a trade chip. But strategizing to lose even before the season begins just does not sit well with me.
I predict we'll go 26-56. That is also my best-case prediction. I think we'll be better than we were last year, but not much. Our young guys, hopefully playing hard, will get us a few wins where the other team is coasting because of how bad we are. Lastly, I predict that this will be the only year of Jalen Green's career where we don't hear whispers/rumors of him leaving for the Warriors once his contract is up.
