[2021 NBA Draft; 24th overall] Rockets select Josh Christopher

From The Athletic Draft Guide

42. Josh Christopher
G | Arizona State | Birthdate: Dec. 8, 2001 (Age: 19) | 6-5 | 215 LBS | Hometown: Carson, Calif.

Background
Parents are Laron and Halona. Nickname is “Jaygup.” Has a desire to start a Jaygup clothing line soon. Comes from a loaded basketball family. Youngest of four siblings. Oldest brother Patrick was a two-time All-Pac-12 guard at Cal who played briefly with the Utah Jazz in the NBA. Sister Paris played at Saint Mary’s until an injury ended her career. Brother Caleb played at Arizona State with Josh this year. Josh was considered to be the best of the family and arguably graduated high school with the highest pedigree. Played at Mayfair High School in southern California and quickly emerged as an elite prospect in the 2020 recruiting class. Has been considered a five-star player since before his sophomore year in high school because of AAU performances. Averaged more than 25 points per game as both a sophomore and junior at Mayfair. Took another step forward as a senior when elite younger prospect Dior Johnson joined his team, averaging more than 29 points per game. Was named a McDonald’s All-American, a Nike Hoop Summit invitee and a Jordan Brand Classic honoree following his senior season, one of the few players in the class to earn that trifecta. Finished just outside of the consensus national top-10 in his recruiting class and chose Arizona State over Michigan, UCLA and Missouri. Had a tough freshman year but was on a team of many ball-dominant scorers, including Remy Martin, Alonzo Verge and Jaelen House. Christopher played in the team’s first 14 games of the season, getting into double figures in all but one game. In his 15th game, against Oregon, Christopher suffered a back injury and did not return to play for the Sun Devils. It seemed that there was a clash of priorities on the team, given reporting after the season. Christopher decided to depart for the 2021 NBA Draft as expected in the preseason, forgoing his final years of collegiate eligibility. Invited to and attended the 2021 NBA Draft Combine.

Strengths
Reasonable athleticism for the off-guard position in the NBA. A bit bouncier than he gets credit for, but not an above-average athlete by NBA shooting guard standards. Loves to rise and try to dunk on people and also had more blocks than some might expect rotating over or recovering in transition because of that bounce. Almost always takes off two feet. Also showcases really good speed with the ball in his hands in the open floor. Very polished and tight handle that allows him to attack without slowing down. Also plays through contact well. Hard to knock him off his line while handling the ball. Plays through contact at the basket, but largely only in transition. Scored almost 40 percent of his offense in transition this past season because he is good at getting and staying downhill with how well he can accelerate through his moves.

In the half court, Christopher’s critical skill is that he’s a tough shot maker. He’s currently more of a midrange killer than a deep threat. Knows how to set up defenders with a series of tough moves off the bounce to create a bit of separation, then attacks. A bit herky-jerky but explodes through the crossover well despite not having a particularly strong first step. There is real shake and craft to his scoring package. Has a great sense for getting defenders leaning one way, then attacking with a quick crossover the other way to get by. Loves to get to his pull-up. Took 47 midrange jumpers, compared to 51 3s in the half court, which will need to change once he gets to the NBA but also showcases how effective he is at getting to his spots. If he’s going to make it, he’s going to make it on the back of this scoring game.

There is defensive upside. When he plays hard, he’s really disruptive and active with his hands, and he can get into defenders’ dribble. Averaged 1.5 steals per game, but this wasn’t just hunting passing lanes and gambling. A lot of his steals came in translatable, positive situations where he disrupted everything.

Weaknesses
A big one is he’s not a positive impact player right now. Some of that is on his feel for the game, motor and decision making, and other parts are on his skill set.

One issue is shot selection. Very few players took more maddening shots than Christopher. Looks like a selfish player at times, only looking for his own buckets. Misses his open teammates regularly in favor of ugly, contested midrange shots. Teams just started collapsing on him in the midrange knowing he wasn’t going to pass it, and he didn’t. Took far too many shots with multiple hands from multiple bodies in his face. Not viewed by some as a particularly good passer, either. He misses the target often, resulting in turnovers. He doesn’t read where help is coming from well right now, and he often makes the wrong passing decision when he decides to make that pass. Needs to watch a ton of film to figure out where the defenders are coming from, then start to make better reads. NBA players and coaches will not let him take the shots he took this year.

He’s currently not a consistent enough shooter right now. When he’s rolling, the basket is as big as the ocean. When he’s not, he struggles. Lot of distance misses. Lot of directional misses (particularly to the right). There wasn’t any consistency in terms of where the shot was always going.

Shot is kind of catapult-like with a left-align release. Exaggerated ball dip off the catch, bringing it to the left side of his body, and elongated motion to get into his pull-up. Because of all these moving parts, not a movement shooter. Made just 31 percent of his catch-and-shoot attempts last year, which isn’t good enough. Also made just 27.8 percent of his pull-up attempts in the halfcourt. He made just 31.9 percent of midrange shots, which isn’t even in the ballpark in terms of efficiency. It would help him to bring his alignment more toward the middle, because it would reduce some of the moving parts in the shot.

Also, effort level on defense was not there all the time. Got beat way too often, sometimes it seemed so he could try to chase in recovery. Closeouts can be better, as he’d often get caught trying to make a play on the ball and trying to make an under-control play. Gambled way too often. Needs to stay under control and make the right play to keep guys in front. Hip flexibility is questionable right now, because he often has to take a hop step to drop his hips, which leads to him being susceptible to crossovers and changes of direction. Doesn’t really navigate screens well, either, despite being strong enough to get through them. While he likes chasing from behind if he thinks he has a shot at the ball, he seems to give up on the play a bit too easily.

Summary
Christopher certainly has quite a bit of talent as a shot creator. He’s shifty and vicious with how he gets into his shot — but the standard for playing this role in the NBA is exceptionally high. You need to not just be a good shooter; you have to be a great one. Currently, it’s uncertain if Christopher qualifies for the former designation. If we looked up in five years and Christopher was a terrific bench scorer because he worked hard to become the kind of shooter to be to play that role in the NBA, I wouldn’t be particularly surprised. His ability to get separation is real. If a team wants to take a flyer on that, I totally get it, especially given the defensive upside that exists with his disruptiveness. That’s where he can really separate himself from some of the offense-dominant players. Throwing in that he doesn’t really play well with his teammates in terms of getting them involved, along with he’s not always engaged defensively, and this just isn’t my kind of player type. I’d rather get Christopher on a second contract than a first one.