[2021 NBA Draft; 16th overall] Rockets select Alperen Sengun

From The Athletic Draft Guide

8. Alperen Sengun
Big | Besiktas | DOB: July 25, 2002 (Age: 19) | 6-10 | 235 LBS | Hometown: Giresun, Turkey

Background
Started his athletic career in both swimming and basketball but quickly shifted to basketball by his early teen years. Started playing for Giresun University by the time he was in his pre-teen years and then moved to Bandirma (then referred to as Banvit) for the next five years to continue his development. Played in the Turkish junior leagues until 2019, winning the Turkish junior championship that year. Sengun emerged clearly as one of the best young players in the country. He began to compete for Turkey in international youth competitions. Played for Turkey at the U16 European Championships, where he led his team to a bronze medal while averaging 14.4 points and 9.4 rebounds. Was named to the All- Tournament team along with fellow potential first-round prospect Usman Garuba. Also played that summer for Turkey at the U17 World Cup, where he averaged 15.9 points and 12.3 rebounds and was the third-best rebounder at the competition. In the summer of 2019, he played for Turkey at the U18 Euro Championships, making the All-Tournament team while averaging 11.9 points, nine rebounds, 1.6 steals and 1.7 blocks.. He and Garuba were the lone underage players to make the All-Tournament team. Starting that next year, he was promoted to Bandirma’s senior team, where he played 22 games in the Turkish league and 15 games in the Basketball Champions League, largely getting his feet under him. At this time, he was up to nearly 270 pounds, so despite his immense production and track record of success, he wasn’t considered a high-level NBA prospect. However, over the course of the next summer, he got into pristine shape. He dropped about 30 pounds before his next season. He moved from Bandirma to Besiktas, a historically bigger club with deeper pockets. Following his physical improvement, Sengun took an enormous leap. He won the Turkish League MVP as a teenager and produced one of the most statistically productive seasons in recent European basketball history for a teenager. His consistency was staggering, winning MVP honors in every month in all but one this past season. Showcased different skills as the season progressed. Sengun declared for the draft following this season, his first eligible as an international player.

Strengths
He plays extremely hard and has a high motor with a nose for the ball. Terrific offensive rebounder. Grabbed over three per game. Also, great feel for how to grab a rebound on the defensive glass. Then, once he does grab the board, he immediately attacks on the break. That’s one of his most immediate, translatable skills. Very good in the open court. An underrated athlete in terms of mobility and vertical pop since getting into better shape. Has some body control and fluidity for a big man with elite hands. Catches everything in his area and can adjust mid-air to do different things. Can Euro step around guys on the ground before finishing. He’s not necessarily going to beat wings off the bounce, but if he’s at the five, he can definitely attack and beat a center. A bit taller than what he was listed at previously. Between 6-foot-10 and 6-foot-11 in shoes.

In the full court, we see Sengun’s full skills on display. Can attack and drive into open spaces to finish, as well as make strong passing reads after bringing defenders toward him. He always runs the court hard and as a finisher will throw down some tomahawk dunks where he shows his lift. Even had a 360 dunk in game this year out on the break. In space, finishes off both one and two feet. Has zero issues in general finishing through contact and does both in full-court and half-court settings. At the basket this past season, Sengun made 74.7 percent of his shots in half-court settings, a ridiculous number. Among the 65 players to take at least 50 shots at the rim in the Turkish League, that was the second-best mark. He also scored more points at the rim than any other player in half-court settings in the Turkish League. Great extension at the rim to finish.

In the half court, can attack guys off the bounce in a straight line from the perimeter. Regularly does it. Ran a lot of dribble hand-offs with him, and he’d regularly keep to facilitate or drive and score. But more than that, just a superb pick-and-roll player. Great hands and coordination that allow him to catch and make a move all in one motion. Catches below his waist, at waist level, and above his head with ease. Similar to how he is out in space, he covers ground quickly out of pick-and-rolls and finishes with swiftness above the rim. Great timing as a roller and understands when to cut it short. His footwork is exceptional. Can spin and finish with balance while keeping his eye on the rim.

Game in the post is terrific, although it will be muted in the NBA due to his size and lack of length. Will be more of a mismatch weapon as opposed to a threat against similar-sized players. Favorite move is the quick backspin. Has great set of counters to whatever the defender presents him. Step-throughs, up-and-unders, reverse spin. Finishes well around the basket because of his touch, his ability to extend and his ability to clear out an angle with his strength from his lower half.

Great passer out of post-ups too. His passing ability is underrated. Patient and sees the floor well. Finds his teammates with ease. Throws some special, creative looks. He’s not Nikola Jokic or anything, but he does throw some “how did he see that?” bounce passes from strange angles. Already hits the cross-corner kickout out of a short roll. Averaged nearly three assists per game but was up around four assists per game over the back half of his season. Clearly got better and more comfortable at diagnosing defenses as the focal point of the offense as the season progressed.

 

Weaknesses
What you do with him on defense? He’s stuck between the four and the five spots. As a five-man, Sengun does an effective job of being available rotationally in help, and he’s good at walling up and using the principle of verticality to stop his man from getting a clean look. His understanding of where he needs to be and where he needs to filter players in drop coverage also is good. When he does get beat, he doesn’t quit or give up easily. He tries to get back in the play with a contest from behind. He’s a smart player. But in the NBA, he’s still a 6-foot-9 player with a 7-foot wingspan and teams will have no worries about finishing over.

He's also better as a rim protector than he is in space. If someone changes the angle on him or opens up his hips, it’s curtains. Struggles to adjust and change directions because his hips look tight. Can turn the corner on him in drop coverage with a quick set-up move. If the ballhandler can snake the pick-and-roll, it’s over. Not a quick-twitch guy by any stretch. Has to load up to try to stay with players or push off and rotate in coverages. Struggles with pick-and-pops out of drop coverages. Has no chance to be switchable right now. He’s kind of caught in no-man’s land defensively. Not quite big enough to be the five-man but not quite good enough laterally to defend on the perimeter. How do you work with that? He has a long way to go to try to get the most out of his lateral agility.

Sengun probably shoots it at some point, but it’s going to take some time. Jumper in the run of play is a bit mechanical and takes some time to load. He’s extremely fluid around the basket but doesn’t have that same fluidity loading into the shot right now. Made just seven of his 32 attempts off catch-and-shoots this past season and only two of his nine pull-up attempts. Low number of shots says it all about how uncomfortable he is right now when it comes to taking those shots. But also showcases some touch. Made some shots that looked clean. Hit nearly 80 percent of his free throws. By the time he’s in his mid-20s, He’s going to be making 3s. Probably won’t do so it off movement but probably from pick-and-pops and spot-up chances.

Summary
Sengun is going to be absolutely terrific as an offensive player in the NBA. His feel for the game is elite, his footwork is outstanding and he’s going to shoot it at some point. His ability on screens to be productive is ridiculous, while also playing unselfishly and reading the floor like a 10- year NBA vet. I don’t think it’s out of the question to compare him to Kevin Love, who was overweight when he was a prospect, got into better shape and was elite in terms of production as a young player. But how valuable is someone like Love in the modern NBA, even in his prime? Still very valuable and certainly a starting-caliber player. But is he the same All-Star level player if he struggles defensively in a similar way? I’m not sure because we never got a chance to see Love in his prime on a good team over the last three years. But compare him to Love or Nikola Vucevic in terms of production. Sengun is going to be that effective. The track record of teenagers with this kind of high-level production and success in Europe is exceptionally good. That’s why I have Sengun as a top-10 guy in the class, even with the substantial defensive questions.