[The Athletic] Big Board - Final

Tier 1. Superstar potential

1. Cade Cunningham
G | Oklahoma State | DOB: Sept. 25, 2001 (Age: 19) | 6-8 | 225 LBS | Hometown: Arlington, Texas


Background

Went wire-to-wire as the clear No. 1 prospect in 2021. Comes from a high-performing, athletic family. Parents are Keith and Carrie. Keith was a quarterback who went to Texas Tech but suffered an early injury that ended his career. Sister Kaylyn played low-level college basketball. Brother Cannen played basketball at SMU, where he retired as the school’s all-time leader in games played. Cannen is an assistant coach at Oklahoma State, hired in part to recruit Cade. Additionally, Cade has a 2-year-old daughter named Riley.


Cunningham played football early in his life and was a quarterback like his father. Focused on basketball in high school. Was identified early as an elite prospect. Quickly achieved five-star status as a sophomore due to his length, feel for the game, scoring ability and willingness to defend. Took an enormous leap during his junior season of high school and emerged as an obvious top-three prospect in his class. Continued along that positive trajectory during the summer prior to his senior year and became the clear-cut No. 1 player. He won the Nike EYBL MVP award in 2019 and was Most Outstanding Player at Pangos All-American camp. Went to 2019 FIBA U19 World Cup and led USA to a gold medal. Was the best player for Team USA during the medal rounds. Went to Bowie High School in Arlington for his first two years, but transferred to Montverde Academy in Florida for his junior and senior seasons. Was the key player on what was arguably the best high school team of the last decade, featuring three other likely first-round picks in Day’Ron Sharpe, Moses Moody and Scottie Barnes. Played point guard and was one of the elite distributors in the country. Montverde went 25-0 and made its case as the best team in the country. Cunningham won the Naismith High School Player of the Year award, plus Mr. Basketball USA. Picked Oklahoma State over Kentucky, North Carolina and others as the No. 1 overall player in the class.


Season at Oklahoma State went as well as it could have gone in many respects. Led an undermanned Oklahoma State team to a 21-9 record. Won first-team All-American honors, Big 12 Player of the Year, Big 12 Freshman of the Year and National Freshman of the Year awards. Led Oklahoma State on unexpected NCAA Tournament run to the Round of 32 before getting upset by Oregon State. As expected, declared for 2021 NBA Draft immediately after the season. Received an invite, but did not attend the 2021 NBA Draft Combine. Known to be a high-character guy. Great work ethic and has continued to improve parts of his game every season. Good leadership.


Strengths

Cunningham has elite-level size as a lead creator at 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan. He uses that size well, using his length to extend past defenders. Mixed with that, he also possesses high-level strength at 225 pounds that allows him to play through contact with ease and without bother. Extremely dexterous and fluid for his size. Not the typical 6-foot-8 person in regard to body control and understanding of his frame. Covers ground very quickly in transition, where his ability to push the pace under control creates easy, quick offense for his team. That combination of size, body control and length make him a real mismatch problem. If you guard him with smaller guards, he’ll shoot over the top of them or bully them down onto the block. If you guard him with someone bigger, he can really use a variety of tough moves off the bounce to get the separation he needs either going backward or forward.


The best place that shows up is as a shot creator both for himself and for teammates. Cunningham is a good, creative ballhandler who does a terrific job with set-up moves to get away from his man on-ball. Plays with great tempo and patience. Very shifty with his hips in how he changes direction from the opposition. Entering college, his best skill was actually seen as his playmaking and passing. Only averaged 3.5 assists per game in college, but that was largely due to role. Sees the floor exceptionally well and plays an unselfish brand of basketball. Watch his tape from Montverde Academy, and you’ll see him whipping around one-handed live-dribble passes, cross-corner kickouts and advanced reads off pick- and-rolls to diving bigs. Profiles not just as a scorer, but as a true shot creator who will help his team run efficient offense. Has great feel for when to go for his own shots and when to get his teammates involved.


Became a high-level shooter as a freshman in college, which fostered further development into becoming an elite scoring prospect. Early in his development, the jumper was a question. However, he has silenced those concerns. Tremendous touch, having hit 40 percent from 3 and 85 percent from the free throw line. Great mechanics, with a simplified shot. Great balance that showcases itself in variety of stepbacks that he takes. Loves to go right-to-left into a stepback. Occasionally pulls out a weird between-the-legs non-dribble crossover into the stepback. Can put defenders into the blender with a variety of between-the-leg dribbles, crossovers and pump fakes to get separation for the shot. Can score from all three levels off the bounce. Was well above average as a shooter off the catch this season too. Hit at a 64.9 effective field goal percentage,




which shows how effective he’d be playing off the ball next to a true point guard sharing the load if a team wanted further creation on the court with him.


Additionally, Cunningham is a tremendous finisher at the rim. He made 62.1 percent of his shots at the rim this past season in the half court this season according to Synergy, despite only one-quarter of his shots at the rim being assisted. As mentioned above, plays well through contact while maintaining balance throughout core. While not being a crazy explosive athlete, uses his length to extend and finish well. Also has a burgeoning little floater game, although he’s still ironing that out, having made just 27 percent of them. Still figuring out footwork into those shots, but his comfort level and touch projects well toward him acquiring the floater in the future.


He’s not just a one-way offensive player. Cunningham is a genuine plus defender when he truly locks down on defense, especially late in games. His feel on that end is tremendous. He has great rotational instincts within a team construct and is a genuine playmaker with active hands. He uses his length exceedingly well to get into passing lanes, averaging 1.6 steals and a ton of deflections per game. He’s also solid as a weakside rim protector, rotating over and using verticality to contest shots inside with his length. Also uses his length well on the ball to bother opposing players.


Finally, it’s worth noting that Cunningham was arguably the most clutch player in college basketball. According to Synergy, Cunningham scored 106 points in clutch moments as of March 21, nearly double the next best player in college basketball at 63 points. He shot 47 percent in the final five minutes of games when the score was within five points. He’s reliable and a trustworthy leader who wants the ball in the biggest moments.

 

Weaknesses
Cunningham is a good athlete, but not a great one. Not wildly explosive in his movements. Relies more on change of pace than anything. Doesn’t have a monster first step. Also, not a crazy vertical athlete.


Turnovers remain the significant question. Cunningham averaged four per game. In part, this was situational. Every time Cunningham drove last season, the opposing team collapsed on him and tried to dig into his handle to strip the ball. His handle can get a bit high at times, but with the larger offensive area in college basketball, I’m not as worried about Cunningham’s turnovers getting stripped. It’s harder to dig down on a big player who can pass due to how big the recovery spaces are in the NBA. Also got a lot of terrible charge calls against him because the college game is shambolically officiated. He won’t have to worry about those at the NBA level. Could stand to be better at times at not putting himself in trouble by getting in the air before making a decision.


Could stand to lock in a touch more throughout games defensively. Definitely does when it matters, but sometimes took some possessions off in college — likely due to load management given the offensive role he was asked to lead.


Summary
Cunningham is one of the more complete prospects to come through the draft process in a while. There aren’t many holes to his game. He’s a three-level scorer now because of his shooting improvement. He hits 40 percent from 3 and finishes at the rim. He can make high-level passing reads and plays unselfishly. He defends at a high level. He’s a high-character player. He’s clutch and loves the biggest moments, with a proven track record of success during them. He has elite size for the role he’ll play. There is a case that he is the most bust-proof prospect to enter the NBA in a long while. The worst-case scenario for Cunningham is high-level wing creator who can shoot and make high-level passing reads while defending. It’s reasonable to quibble with his upside athletically, as he may struggle more against elite-level NBA defenders with size and length to match his own. But there aren’t a ton of those guys in the NBA. If you wanted to say a different player in this draft has the highest upside, I wouldn’t agree, but I’d at least understand. But there is no higher floor in this class, and Cunningham’s upside is legitimately being a top-five player in the league at some point given how complete his game is.

 

Tier 2 - All Star potential

Suggs
Mobley
Green

2. Jalen Suggs
G | Gonzaga | DOB: June 3, 2001 (Age: 20) | 6-4 | 205 LBS | Hometown: St. Paul, Minn.


Background

Parents are Larry and Molly. Family has a long track record of success in athletics in Minneapolis and St. Paul area. Most prominent family member is former NFL pass rusher Terrell Suggs, a cousin. Former NBA All-Star Eddie Jones is a cousin. Father Larry was a standout in both football and basketball. Larry coaches at Minnehaha Academy, where Jalen went to high school. Has two younger sisters — one of which, Jennica, is a high-level high school player in Minnesota. Suggs has been a standout athlete at seemingly everything he’s ever tried to do. Played both basketball and football at an exceedingly high level. Was a star quarterback, earning recognition as a four-star dual-threat prospect. Led team to a state championship and was named Minnesota Mr. Football in 2019. Earned high-major offers across the map, although his recruiting never totally took off due to how good he was at basketball. Due to that athletic prowess, was immediately recognized as a freshman in high school as an elite-level hoops prospect. Consistently ranked as a five-star, top-15 player in the 2020 recruiting class throughout his entire career. Led Minnehaha Academy to three straight state championships, with the chance at a fourth one being canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Won Minnesota Mr. Basketball in 2020, becoming the first player to win both the Mr. Football and Mr. Basketball awards in state history. He was named a McDonald’s All-American, a Nike Hoop Summit participant, and a Jordan Brand Classic selection. Also won multiple gold medals playing with Team USA in youth-level competitions, including the U17 and U19 World Cups.


Chose Gonzaga over a bevy of high-major offers in January 2020 in large part due to coaching and style of play. Also considered multiple professional options but ultimately decided to stick with Gonzaga. Ended up being the right decision. In conjunction with others, led the Bulldogs to an undefeated regular season and a national title game berth, where they fell short against Baylor. Suggs was named second-team All-American, first-team All-WCC, WCC Freshman of the Year and won the WCC Tournament Most Outstanding Player award. Hit what will go down as one of the most famous shots in college basketball history, a 30-plus foot buzzer beater in the Final Four to defeat UCLA and send Gonzaga to the title game. Declared for the draft following standout season. Received an invite, but did not attend the 2021 NBA Draft Combine.

Strengths

Ideal size for a lead guard creator. Powerful frame at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds. Above all, Suggs is a remarkably explosive athlete. Suggs has a terrific first step with real quickness that allows him to blow past the first line of defenders. And once he does that, he has the rare ability to transition that speed into power in the way that he absorbs contact and powers up through it around the basket. Has real bounce off two feet.


Plays an attack-oriented brand of basketball while maintaining control. Fearless driver but patient while waiting for defenders to react in help. Most effective on drive-off hesitations and in-and-out dribbles but has some crossover and change-of-direction skill. Pressures the defense with real speed off those change of pace moves and can generate that downhill force from a standstill coming directly off a ball screen. Also provides constant pressure out in transition with that quickness and power. Scored about 36 percent of his points out in transition. Grabs and goes with decisiveness, then tries to force the issue. Love the way he gets to the rim and finishes. Made 56.4 percent of his shots at the rim in half court, per Synergy. Changes the angle on rim protectors in mid-air well. Takes over three shots there per game. Also took nearly three shots at the rim per game in transition. Drew fouls in the games where he was aggressive and took over. Took under four free throws per game but showed upside there when the moment called for it (which it didn’t always given how good Gonzaga was).


In the half court, he’s great out of ball screens but can also create out of isolation in a mismatch. Understands his athleticism and uses it to his advantage. Great at flying around screens and driving to the paint but also knows how to keep the defender on his hip while assessing and diagnosing where to put the ball. Also really uses the hard jab step well, knowing the defense must account for his quickness. Knows how to freeze defenders, then get to his stepback. Very comfortable pulling up for 3 behind a ball screen. Have to respect his pull-up going to both his left and his right when coming off a screen. If you don’t, he’ll confidently pull up.


The other place he excels out of ball screens is as a passer. He has terrific vision and can hit just about any pass in the book. Loves to jump stop in the paint then hit either the cross corner or cross-wing kick-out for 3. Paired particularly well with Corey Kispert in these settings, dishing out 43 assists to him over the course of the season. Also dished out 43 assists to Drew Timme, with 15 of those coming out of ball screens to Timme as the roller, according to Synergy. Also good with the skip pass across the court. The place where Suggs has made most of the highlight reels is as a transition passer. Loves the Hail Mary, one-handed home run pass off rebounds to streaking teammates. His sense of how to weigh long bounces to get them to their target in stride is unbelievable.




When Suggs is engaged on defense, he’s a monster defender with sub-All-Defensive Team upside. Extremely aggressive on-ball, using his strength to absorb contact and fight through screens, as well as his quickness to slide to cut off opposing players. He also has tremendous off-ball defensive IQ. He shoots passing lanes and gets a ton of deflections and steals. That leaping ability off two feet also allows him act occasionally as a back-side rim protector. Rotationally, when he’s locked in, he’s also a terrific scramble defender.

 

Weaknesses
Sometimes gets a bit wild. Turned it over three times per game despite having a role where he shared the offense with Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard. Makes some choices that had to make Mark Few pull his hair out, particularly regarding high-wire-act passes. It’s good to see him pushing the bounds of his game, but there are times where he needs to rein it in a touch more. Wouldn’t say he’s a particularly crafty ballhandler either. A lot of high-looping crossovers. Could stand to tighten his dribble a bit to help cut down on those turnovers.


The big question for Suggs moving forward is regarding the jump shot overall. He’s made improvements and strides over the last year as a shooter, but he’s still pretty streaky outside of the jumper coming around a ball screen where a defender goes under to try to cut off his driving angle. He’s not particularly good off the catch, in part because his mechanics waver a bit. Particularly gets a bit wild with his balance. Needs to improve out of spot-ups to play occasionally off the ball so that his team can get more creativity on the court.


Also, hasn’t really showcased himself as a three-level scorer right now. Doesn’t have much of an in-between game yet. Only took 17 midrange jumpers the entire season and didn’t look particularly comfortable from that range when he took them. He had a good feel for what a good shot was, and oftentimes in Gonzaga’s offense, surrounded by Timme inside and guys like Kispert outside, the midrange jumper wasn’t the best one available, so part of the reason he didn’t take them was largely because of who he was surrounded by. Still, he’ll need to prove he can take and make those shots as a lead ballhandler at the next level, because those often end up being the available end-of-shot-clock looks.


Finally, on defense, Suggs can get a bit gamble-prone. He’ll try to shoot passing lanes that aren’t there to be aggressively attacked. He’ll also occasionally disengage a bit on that end and get beat for backdoor passes or stand up a bit straighter in his stance on the ball. This happened most during Gonzaga’s run in WCC play where the Zags weren’t really challenged, and he was largely good in the big games. Still, he’ll need to prove he can lock in consistently over a larger schedule despite his winning mentality.


Summary
Few things are more valuable in the NBA than a lead creator. Suggs has potential to be just that given his athleticism, power, vision and basketball IQ. It’s not easy to find players with this blend of tools who also have this much of a productive track record. He has an undeniable history of winning games, from high school championships to his run with Gonzaga. And that mentality showcases itself in his game too, with Suggs typically stepping up in a big way in the biggest moments. The flashes from Suggs this past season, particularly in the biggest moments, exceeded those of 2020 No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards. I’d comfortably take what we’ve seen from Suggs over what Edwards was as a prospect last season. His vision is a real differentiator for him as a prospect in addition to the scoring. Suggs profiles as an All-Star-caliber initiator if his development as a shooter continues to go right.


3. Evan Mobley
C | USC | DOB: June 18, 2001 (Age: 20) | 7-0 | 215 LBS | Hometown: Murrieta, Calif.


Background

Parents are Eric and Nicol. Eric played college basketball at Portland and is a former corrections officer who worked with a few different AAU teams in the Southern California area. He’s now an assistant with the USC men’s basketball program. Nicol, a former center on a state championship team in California, is now a schoolteacher. Evan has one brother, Isaiah, who is also a former McDonald’s All-American who plays for USC. Isaiah also is a legitimate draft prospect going forward as a 6-foot-10 forward. The duo combined to form one of the best frontcourts in the country. In AAU with the Compton Magic, they also paired with Onyeka Okongwu to form the best frontcourt in prep hoops.


Didn’t start to truly focus on basketball until the eighth grade but developed very quickly as he matured. Emerged into a five-star prospect by the time he was a sophomore at Rancho Christian School. Played with brother Isaiah for his first three high school years, where the team was very successful. Evan won the Gatorade California Player of the Year award in back-to-back seasons as a junior and senior, becoming the second player to do so, along with Jrue Holiday. As a senior, he also won the Morgan Wootten National Player of the Year award. He won McDonald’s

All-American, Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic selection honors even though those games did not occur. He finished the cycle as the No. 3 player in the 2020 recruiting class and committed to USC in what was considered fait accompli upon his father’s hiring in 2018.


His lone collegiate season went off without a hitch. He won the Pac-12 Player of the Year, Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year and Pac-12 Freshman of the Year awards, becoming the first player to sweep all three in a major conference since Anthony Davis in 2012. Ended up as a consensus second-team All-American, leading USC to its most successful season in nearly seven decades. The team went 25-8 and went to the Elite Eight. Mobley declared for the draft after this dominant season. Considered a high-character guy. Quiet and humble but does want to be great within basketball. Received an invite to and attended the 2021 NBA Draft Combine.

 

Strengths

Terrific physical tools for the modern center position. At 7-foot tall with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, Mobley’s movement skills really stand out. His lateral quickness and hip flexibility are remarkable for someone who is 7-foot tall. He can bend and drive off his back foot as a ballhandler. He moves like a wing. And his coordination and fluidity are terrific, allowing him to have great hand-eye dexterity as well as strong reaction times to what happens around him.


That bears itself out best on defense right now. Mobley is a monster defensive prospect with genuine All-Defense upside in the modern NBA if things break right. His rim protection is elite. USC had the best 2-point defense in the country this past season as the 7-footer shut down the paint. Mobley is an ambidextrous shot blocker who often prefers to block shots with his left hand. Despite his lack of bulk, Mobley is a real hindrance around the basket because he knows how to contest vertically, getting every inch of contest out of his frame. He’s also terrific at not fouling. He averaged just 2.1 fouls per 40 minutes, a ridiculously low clip given how active he was as a shot contester inside. His rotational instincts are terrific from the weak side, and he’s almost always there to provide a difficult look to the driver inside.


Beyond that on defense, Mobley is a terrific pick-and-roll defender too. You can run a switch-heavy defense with him because he can go out and deal with quick guards (although he’s not necessarily elite at it, a la Bam Adebayo or anything). Those flexible hips showcase themselves well here, as he can flip and drop his hips as necessary to cut off opposing guards and drivers. He’s also really smart in drop coverage settings, where his quick reaction times allow him to cut off gaps and angles with ease. His limbs allow him to simultaneously guard diving bigs as well as driving guards. He defends both away from and at the rim at an exceedingly high level for a center.


Offensively, he does a lot of what teams are looking for. He has a very versatile skill set that teams are going to be able to use in a variety of ways. Very few players have as diverse a shot portfolio as Mobley. Per Synergy, he took 18 percent of his shots out of rolls, 15 percent out of post-ups, 15 percent out of spot-ups, 12 percent out of cuts/dump-offs, 11 percent on offensive rebounds, 9 percent out in transition and 7 percent out of pure isolation. He also ran 15 pick-and-rolls as a ballhandler this season, scoring on seven of them. He’s a strong roller to the rim, taking about three shots per game in those scenarios and making them efficiently. He’s a significant threat as a finisher at the rim, making 69.1 percent of his attempts in the half court, which was a strong number this year. His footwork is terrific, as he has light feet and great speed, while also possessing good touch on layups and a great dunking radius due to his length. He also made 54.5 percent of his floaters. Good offensive rebounder and finisher.


Even beyond there, Mobley can handle the ball. He loves to handle with his left hand, getting good bend as a driver. Genuinely an ambidextrous driver, which is rare for someone this size and age. He’s comfortable spinning backward fluidly while staying in control of his limbs. Can legit grab and go on the break and lead his team out in transition, attacking and creating real advantages for his team. And once he does that, he can make high-level passing reads after creating open passing angles. Can play out of dribble handoffs both as a ballhandler and as the big who makes the initial exchange read. Not just a standstill passer either. Can make passing reads off a live dribble with one hand after creating. Real potential as an initiator from the perimeter.


Weaknesses
Mobley is still very skinny, and his frame isn’t exactly ideal for continuing to add a ton of strength. If you initiate contact with him, he doesn’t play through it well. Strong offensive players can displace him pretty easily due to his high center of gravity and lack of bulk. Uses his length well on post-ups, but he was largely bigger and longer than everyone whom he dealt with in college. That won’t be the case in the NBA, where guys such as Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid would be able to bury him underneath the basket right now with relative ease. Someone like Arizona’s Azuolas Tubelis kind of buried him with relative ease at the rim. Drew Timme caused him a lot of issues in the NCAA Tournament for Gonzaga as a short-roller who could get downhill with body control as a driver.


This also caused Mobley issues on the glass. Mobley is a good offensive rebounder because his second jump and ability to high-point the ball is good but can get pushed around positionally on the defensive glass. Grabbed just 18.9 percent of available defensive rebounds for USC, a low rate for high-level center prospect. Needs to get better at finishing possessions on the defensive end to meet his true potential.




That inability to play through contact while getting displaced is a big reason why he often looked passive at times. He could get pushed off his driving or his post line relatively easily. I don’t think it’s that Mobley didn’t want to try to score, something often thrown at the feet of young big men. He largely couldn’t get to the spots he wanted in certain matchups and didn’t force the issue to take poor shots just to take them. And because of that lack of strength and high center of gravity, he’s not exactly the kind of guy you just throw it to on the block to get him an open look. Had five games where he took six or fewer shot attempts this past season, something that shouldn’t theoretically happen given his tools.


Mobley’s shooting will also play a big role in where his final offensive role ends up settling. I wouldn’t say it’s a weakness, but it’s not a strength yet, so I tossed it here. Made just 30 percent of his 3s this year and under 70 percent from the line but has clearly solid, developable touch. Has a bit of a long release and needs some time to get it off. However, he made an awful lot of midrange jumpers this past season. Mobley took 56 midrange jumpers this past season, making 50 percent of them and showcasing real comfort in that area. Needs to iron out his consistency in this regard. Mechanics can get sped up if you closeout heavily on him, and sometimes has a bit of a wavering release point that results in his shot rhythm getting knocked off occasionally.


Summary
Mobley has all the tools to be an All-NBA big man. He has potential to be one of the few guys in the league who can be real shot creators and offensive initiators along with providing All-Defense-level skill. He’s one of the most skilled big-man prospects to enter the league in a long time. Ultimately, his future as an All-Star will be determined by two factors. First, where does he settle in terms of strength? Is he able to put on 20 or so pounds, or at least add a significant amount of core strength so that he doesn’t regularly get blown off his spot. Second, does he develop as a shooter? If both of those things come through, Mobley has a real shot to make a lot of All-NBA teams. If they don’t, he’ll settle more as a top half of the league starting center due to the variety and flexibility of his skill set mixed with his feel for the game. The former is absolutely worth a

top-three pick in this draft. The latter is worth more of a mid-tier lottery pick. Obviously by rating him here, I’m more willing to bet on the hope that he can get stronger, and his athletic upside shines through at the next level due to his coordination and quickness.

 

4. Jalen Green
G | G League Ignite | DOB: Feb. 9, 2002 (Age: 19) | 6-6 | 180 LBS | Hometown: Merced, Calif.


Background

Mom is Bree Purganan. Stepfather is Marcus Green. Mother is a nurse and has Filipino heritage, and Green has an enormous following in the Philippines because of it. Has a younger sister, Jurnee. Played with EBO on the Adidas AAU circuit along with UCLA forward Jaime Jaquez, a future NBA Draft prospect. Was a clear five-star prospect immediately upon starting high school. Was a freshman All-American in his first high school year, then really blew up as a sophomore. Green averaged more than 27 points per game and helped lead San Joaquin Memorial to a section division title on his way to winning the national MaxPreps Sophomore of the Year award. Continued his ascension as a junior. As a senior, transferred to Prolific Prep in Napa, Calif., leading his team to a 31-3 record. He averaged more than 30 points per game and earned multiple accolades, including McDonald’s All-American status, a selection to the Nike Hoop Summit team and a Jordan Brand Classic berth. Also has an extensive Team USA track record. Won the gold medal with Team USA at the U17 World Cup in 2018, the U19 World Cup in 2019 and the U16 Americas Tournament in 2017. He was named MVP of the U17 World Cup event in 2018 while averaging more than 15 points per game. Played a significant role as an underage player in the 2019 U19 World Cup, averaging double figures.


Green was the consensus No. 2 prospect in the 2020 recruiting class, the only player consistently ranked in the top three from late 2017 onward. He considered both the college and professional pathways throughout his time, with Memphis and Auburn being considered the two most likely colleges to receive his commitment. Ultimately, he decided to go with the G League and cleared seven figures between his G League salary and a shoe deal. The pandemic ended up creating a strange set of circumstances where it became somewhat unclear if a G League season would happen, but it did in a bubble setting in February and March. Green got better as the season went forward, including an elite finale with a 30- point outing in the team’s playoff loss to Raptors 905. Received an invite to and attended the 2021 NBA Draft Combine.

Strengths

The most explosive athlete of this class. All sorts of bounce and quick twitch. A powerful leaper off both two feet and one foot, while also maintaining body control and fluidity to maneuver in mid-air. A monster high-flyer who has a chance to win a dunk contest one day. His first step with the ball is ridiculous. Extremely fast in the open court without the ball, constantly leaking out into transition lanes to try to get easy dunks. Given those tools, he’s also gotten better at moving off ball and cutting for easy shots at the rim.




Uses those tools to an exceedingly high level as a scorer. Has a genuinely high chance to be a 25-point-per-game guy. Green will occasionally settle too often on the perimeter, but when he decides to play attack-oriented basketball, he’s an elite scoring prospect due to those athletic tools. He has a pretty vicious handle due to the quick twitch mixed with elite body control. Does a great job of using little change of pace moves like hesitations and hang dribbles to freeze defenders, then can blow by with a reactive first step or separate backward with very quick crossovers into pull-ups. Strings moves together with ease to set up defenders, then blows by. From there, can get into his pull-up game from a variety of different angles, directions and foot positions. Loves the right-to-left crossover into side-step pull-up. But can left-plant, right-align pull-up footwork going to his right with ease. Good in isolation or out of ball-screen actions. He has real potential to be a three-level scorer.


Unsurprisingly, given those tools, he’s a very good finisher at the rim. Excellent at changing at the angle on rim protectors, going up one way, rearranging in the air and finding a different way to finish. Drastically more comfortable going off two feet than leaping off one foot, he will need to find some differentiation in the way he takes off. But Green made 57.8 percent of his shots at the rim in half-court settings, which was an above-average mark in the G League bubble – an impressive accomplishment given his youth and lack of weight. Was also the second-most effective finisher out in transition in the G League, making his shots there at a ridiculous 78.3 percent clip per Synergy.


A lot will come down to Green’s shooting. He’s a solid shooter right now who takes and makes a ton of high-degree-of-difficulty looks. But he’s very streaky. He has a smooth one-motion jumper with a high arc and low release point that is out in front of his face a bit. On occasion, the release point wavers. And while he can get the shot from a variety of different angles and foot positions, he often doesn’t get himself turned into total alignment with the rim. But this is a typical young player going through the process of improving his shot. The shot looks very similar from both the midrange and from beyond the arc, which gives some confidence that he should be good from all three levels. I would venture Green will shoot it at a high enough level to be an All-Star-caliber scorer by the time he’s in his early to mid-20s. But it’s not a sure thing, and he’ll need to work at it.


Has shown real flashes as a passer when he wants, as well. When focused on making plays, he makes some creative live-dribble passes out of ball screens that show he could be able to continue growing into a role as a primary playmaker for a team. He’ll always be focused more on scoring because that’s what he’s best at, but in the same way that Zach LaVine handles the ball a ton and acts as a primary initiator, Green could do the same.


Weaknesses
Two big questions. First comes on defense. Green was a pretty terrible defender in the G League. He shot passing lanes for steals and was pretty engaged for the most part on the ball, but his overall technique leaves a lot to be desired. He was also a consistent gambler, which is part of why his steal rate was so high. When he got home, it looked great. When he didn’t, it often resulted in buckets for the opposing team.


His footwork and slide technique are bad right now, and he doesn’t get the most out of his quick-twitch athleticism because of it. He looks at times like a player who lacks lateral quickness, and we know from his overall athleticism level that he doesn’t. In scramble situations, he’s a consistent fly-by guy on closeouts and needs to work on taking shorter, choppier steps as opposed to flying out of control toward the shooter. Getting through screens both on and off ball is a significant problem right now too. He has no idea how to navigate them yet. Often ends up running into them. Doesn’t do a good job of trailing and needs to get skinnier at the mesh point to avoid the contact of the screen better. Wasn’t particularly good in recovery despite his athleticism, either, because while he would give effort through the initial action, he often didn’t really work to fight to get back into the play. He has so much work to do on this end of the floor in terms of awareness and instinctual development that it’s really hard to project him as anything but a negative long-term.


Finally, while Green has shown real flashes as a passer and playmaker, he needs to do a much better job of making decisions and quicker reads. He loves to stop the play and hold the ball before making a shot. Rarely catches and fires directly after receiving a pass. Always surveys to see if he can attack first, even when he has an open 3. Negative assist-to-turnover ratio this past year in part due to an occasionally loose handle, and in part due to decision-making as a passer. Has a tendency to occasionally lock in on one guy, allowing defenders to read where he’s going. Also jumps before passing a lot, putting him in vulnerable decision-making situations. I’ll also note the jumper again because it is streaky and needs some work.


Summary
I was really impressed with what I saw from Green in the G League. Early on, I thought it might take him some real time to improve his decision- making and defense, and I still feel that way. But the scoring ability translated in the best possible way it could have. He was about as elite in that regard as could have been expected for a teenager. He got much better as the season went on, really improving his patience as a driver and becoming so much more comfortable with what the defense was presenting to him away from the ball. He’s about as projectable a 20-point-per- game scoring guard as has entered the draft in a while. The combination of his skill level, handle and elite-level athleticism is going to allow him to get buckets at an exceedingly high level. How he’s able to round out the rest of his skills in terms of his passing and defense will be the difference between him making just one or two All-Star teams as a scoring guard or becoming a real potential All-NBA player.