Yes they were built on analytics, but you need to take some chances in addition to going strictly by the analytics.
Analytics is taking information and assessing it in a quantifiable manner. I can guarantee Click used analytics to determine this trade helps the Astros overall (i.e., the benefit now outweighs the opportunity cost later). Click isn't taking a chance. He's not using his gut. If anything, he's being overly safe as this was not a big risk move.
For any of you who are questioning this Graveman trade and thinking they gave up on a utility player who could potentially help them the next 4+ years let me ask you this. Would you want them to trade for Scherzer? If you do I'm assuming the thought process is to try and win it all THIS year. More than likely he too would be a rental and there would be a cost to obtain him as he's not coming here for free and there are at least TEN teams who are interested in him because they too are trying to strengthen themselves and to potentially win a WS again THIS year. To get players that strengthen your team you're going to have give up something in return. Graveman doesn't move the needle the way that Scherzer would, but we also did NOT have to give away anything that seriously harms us over the next couple of seasons. Click realizes that Correa may not be here after this season, nor will Greinke, you have Brantley & Yuli for this year and next, it's hard to accumulate enough talent to be a serious WS contender. If you're willing to give up some highly touted prospects for a rental in Scherzer (which I would be willing to do) then I'm certainly not going to lose any sleep parting ways with Toro and Smith to add a piece (not THE solution) to the weakest part of the team which is the bullpen. Hopefully other moves are coming. I guess we'll see how it plays out.
Everybody is talking like Graveman is going to regress. (Likely) If his era regresses by a run that's still a stud pitcher. People who make it out that Toro's going to be a J.D. Martinez type player is laughable. I see him as a Moran,Villar type guy in the best case scenario. Well worth improving the chances for another ring.
Are you saying Luhnow didn't take risks in addition to using analytics. Because if that's what you're saying I would suggest you read Astroball, the book about the 2017 championship season.
Read it a while back. I don't see what trading Toro/Smith has to do with what Luhnow has done (edit other than putting together a great team such that trading Toro for a reliever makes sense). I don't see using information to reduce the chances a team misses the playoffs as risky.
Hyperbole on my part. I still want a better pitcher than Graveman. I still expect the Astros to make moves. I'm just not sure if they will make a move for a better pitcher than Graveman.
I dont either. Luhnow didn't go strictly by analytics though and it doesn't look like Click wil be either. A combination is a good thing. IMHO
JD Martinez, JD Davis and Teoscar Hernandez were all players with potential, but certainly not locks to be superstars. Toro has nothing left to prove in the minors (dominates MiLB) and has not had sufficient time at the MLB level to have a handle on any limitations for success. Only time and PAs will determine his ultimate MLB success. Either or neither of us could be right. But he will have more opportunity to play elsewhere because we're stacked.
My fascination with Luhnow was his willingness to look outside the box of expectations. To explore possibilities which weren't even being discussed. But that was also possible because he had an owner with the same mindset.
Agreed, but I would guess Toro at best will be an avg to above avg player. Thinking he's going to be an all star/MVP candidate type guy is overly optimistic. IMHO
Analytics involves taking information from multiple sources. It is the act of combining those different information sources. Saying Luhnow didn't go by analytics suggests he made moves that he thought would hurt the team or that he purposely didn't look at information that would help him improve a decision. What part of the book suggests Luhnow made a move that he thought would hurt the Astros or that he purposely didn't try to obtain information that could prove useful? A team does not have to win the surplus value in a trade for the trade to make sense using analytics.
To be fair he’d be an upgrade in some way to almost every bullpen…. But there’s a reason every team is staying away from him. I tend to agree with the notion that acquiring Osuna opened the door to a lot of issues with the perception of the Astros. I think Crane and Click want to distance themselves away from that stuff as much as possible and bringing Osuna back in wouldn’t be a good look.
The same owner is still at MMP. And they're making moves to try to win another WS. Is there risk? Yes, is making moves worth the risk? Yes, IMHO
Where did you get this out of that post? No GM would make a move if he thought it would hurt his team. But the book did talk about some of the risks Luhnow took.
Who exactly are you arguing with? I haven't seen anybody say that this wasn't a good trade. I haven't seen anybody say Graveman is going to turn into a shitty pitcher all the sudden. I haven't seen anybody saying Graveman will not help the Astros chances of winning the World Series.
Nobody I was just commenting on posters who think Toro is likely to become the next Martinez,Hernandez etc... and I think it's more likely that Toro is a solid 10 year player than an all star.
Think of Graveman as a less successful starter following the path of John Smoltz. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoltjo01.shtml
