What should be the goal of the draft? A sure thing or higher risk/reward?

If you want the sure thing you use the GM's other tools in his kit - trades and free agency.

The draft is for upside and BPA only. (Within reason, you still have to try and assess bust potential).

 

The goal of the draft should be to take the best player available. Perhaps that is defined differently at 2 because having a pick that high is so rare?

Hence the desire for a home run swing. It really would have been less stressful to get the 4th pick and have Suggs be the obvious choice

 

We need to pick Green for our 2nd pick and for our (hopefully Indiana pick)13th pick we should pick either, Kai Jones, Jalen Johnson or Joshua Giddey!!!

 

High ceiling with no basement.

 

I think I'm in the minority of posters who believe with #2, 2022 FRP, Wood, and KPJ are enough to build a team around.

In 3-4 years, you just need to add a few veteran role players, and voila.

 

The goal is to get a superstar. Very good players, while cool to have, are everywhere.

The goal is to get your "Batman" and find the "Robin" later on. High risk high reward is the only play that makes sense at #2. Odds are you aren't picking that high the next 20 years.

 

I tend to agree with this. Unfortunately Green is the sexy ticket selling pick. I still hope for Mobley because he's more versatile and unique and I am surprise how many people feel defensively Green can be better just because he works hard, but I'm not so sure about that. Also certain defensive instincts cannot be taught at 18-19 years old. I just don't see a player suddenly becoming this great defender. Mobley's floor is already way higher due to being a good defender, rebounder and ball handler for a big. As to the question, I'd say Mobley and Green are both risks since the former is definitely more prone to injury, so it's not like drafting Mobley is a sure thing and Green is the higher risk pick. I do think Mobley is both more of a sure thing and higher risk and reward player.

 

high risk picks are made in like pick 15-30.

No team with top 3 pick has ever went way against the consensus and picked a super high risk high reward player not on everyone else's draft board.

That's why someone like Giannis was never going top 10 back then.

All in all people are quite conservative when they have high picks

 

I look at it like this. I may be wrong. Green played in the G-League. He did great. The competition level is much, much, higher than what Cade and Mobley played against. 75% of the people Mobley and Cade played against couldn't even make it to the G league

 

OP, I feel the same way as you do about Green--I think he can fall in a wide range of outcomes.
Part of the reason for that is that we really have never had someone come from the G-League like that before, so there's a lot of uncertainty trying to interpret his performance there.

With pick #2, I'd always draft based on potential, with the obvious caveat that we are all pretty **** at judging that as well.

 

Sapphires are good enough, just need to be patient and collect a few of them.

 

I agree with you but I think KJ and Tate belong in that group as well. KJ has serious potential and by the end of the year was playing so well he looks like he'll be a plus starter in this league. Tate is that glue guy with his versatility on both sides of the ball, and his high-character/maturity level

 

But I disagree with this logic. Young scorers can take on the challenge to be good facilitators and defenders. Yes it take some development time and the right attitude/work ethic, but for Mobley or Cade to reach their potentials, they also require development time and the right attitude/work ethic.

 

When you get to the nice end, I believe sapphires (and rubies and emeralds) are more rare and valuable than diamonds.

 

I know the hot topic is between green/mobley/suggs/cade at #2 but I think all signs point to green. I think this topic is more interesting at 23/24.

I think we need to go highest ceiling there too. I really hope someone like Jalen Johnson, Kai Jones, or Garuba falls to us (realistically). I would be happy with guys like Sharife Cooper, Jaden Springer, Cam Thomas, Isaiah Jackson or Day'Ron Sharpe. I don't think we need high floor guys like Murphy, Duarte, Butler etc...

 

When you have them, all you need to do is snap your fingers.

 

You choose the guy with the highest ceiling until you are right. It may take 2-4 years, but eventually you will be right. Chances are the other top 3 picks are busts. Typically of the top 4 picks, only 1 ends up being a star.

 

One high floor and one high ceiling is what I'm hoping for the 23rd and the 24th picks. I'm okay with taking two high ceiling players with them too.

 

I think the biggest factor of potential is physical attributes. Things that a person was born with and cannot change. Height, length, intelligence, strong frame, and explosive athletic ability.
I think the biggest factor of floors are work ethic, preparation, leadership, competitive drive, support system, and current level of play.

As far as highest reward, without factoring in risk I think it is easily Mobley. He is a 7ft wing with 7'4 wingspan, currently in the league those are 0, unless Durant and Giannis wear the right shoes. He can make an impact on both sides of the court and could be better than the next Dream or KG. The factors that could limit him would be lack of competitive drive and leadership. I don't think his strength has to be a limiting factor, but it could be depending on the team that drafts him. Teams will probably play him out of position at center due to his height, and putting him on aggressive weight training causing him too much wear and tear. KG and Olajuwon are some ultimate competitors and leaders so it will be tough to get that level. His floor is fairly high because he can impact the game on both sides of the court with his length, but his current level of play is also not on the same level of Cade and Jalen Green.

Next would be Kuminga and Barnes, potentially better than guys like Kawhi Leonard and Karl Malone. Not quite as tall, but still elite level strength, motor, and explosiveness with over 7ft wingspan. Limiting factors for these guys would be current level of play as both guys can really only be solid role players and defenders at this point due to lack of shooting ability and shot creation.

Jalen Green's potential is limited a little by his length. He is not as tall as the other guys and wingspan is more average. I think this affects his defensive potential. He could be better than Jordan on Offense but it will be much tougher for him to be as good a defender. His athletic gifts however are elite. Jalen is by far the most prepared for the NBA in my opinion. Jalen Green was practicing with Steph Curry and Luka Doncic at 14, when he started training with Steph C. urry's trainer. He also was playing pickup games against All Stars like Devin Booker and Kevin Durant at 14. Also he has 3 years of gold medal international play with FIBA USA vs 1 for most of those other guys. Not to mention being prepped as a go to scorer in the G-League against pros. As far as competitive drive, leadership and work ethic I think those are top notch for Jalen as well.

Cade Cunningham potential is limited by his athletic ability, he also has a similar wingspan to Jalen Green. I disagree with a lot of the player comparisons provided for Cade because they are usually guys who are more athletic and have better shot creation and handles (Grant Hill, Luka, Magic, etc.) Cade is not as strong, long, or athletic as most of the great NBA players his height. Calling Cade a PG helps because then you can disregard some of his lack of athleticism, but he really doesn't have the quickness of a PG and doesn't create of the dribble and take care of the ball well enough. Most of the guys his game actually resembles on the court are taller and probably still more athletic (Chris Webber and Rasheed Wallace). It is even harder to find upper level elite guys at 6'8 without explosive athleticism. Some guys would be Antione Walker and Steve Smith. Cade's current level of play is comparable to Jalen Green's. His numbers in college are not very different than Jalen's vs pros. I think he has excellent leadership and competitive drive as well. One other factor is that he has a 3yr old child, that could indicate issues with his support system or take some of his focus away from bball.

 

As I understand it, "floor" is where a player is now, how good he already is. "Ceiling" is where he can possibly get to, also called potential. The intangibles such as work ethics you mentioned are the driving force that take the guy from his floor to his ceiling, or somewhere in between.

Take Ben Simmons as an example. He had high floor, being at all-star level right at the beginning, very good at a lot of things. He also had high ceiling, with his size, handle, court vision, and other things. But he has very poor intangibles. He is still standing on his floor after four seasons, and it is looking like he may never get off his floor.

Giannis on the other hand had a low floor. He was very raw in a lot of ways. But he had high ceiling with his freakish athleticism and growth spurts. He is now much closer to his ceiling than his floor.

Mental makeup means a lot. It is very underrated.