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2021 Trade Targets?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by htownbball, May 18, 2021.

  1. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Everyone thinks the Nationals’ trade-deadline plans revolve around ace right-hander Max Scherzer, whose sudden onset of right triceps discomfort on Saturday sent Twitter into conspiracy-theory overload. But in the big picture, the Nats’ pending decisions are more about shortstop Trea Turner and right fielder Juan Soto, and what the team will look like going forward.

    No longer is there a question about whether the Nats should sell. The answer is yes, unless ownership somehow is comfortable with playoff odds of 2.1% and a series loss to the American League-worst Orioles at the most pivotal moment of the season. There is no shame in the Nats admitting the obvious: It isn’t their year.

    So, assuming he is healthy, trade Scherzer, a potential free agent who effectively can choose his next destination by exercising his right to veto any trade as a player with 10 years of service, five consecutive with the team. Trade relievers Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson, utility man Josh Harrison, maybe even two players on the injured list, left fielder Kyle Schwarber and catcher Yan Gomes, if teams are willing to assume the risk.

    Turner, a brilliant all-around talent who is second only to the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. in fWAR since the start of the 2020 season, is trickier. Unlike the potential free agents listed above, he is under club control for one more season. The Nats probably could not extract fair value for him at the deadline, and the same goes for Soto, who is under club control for three more years. Honestly, they should not even consider moving either. But are they going to commit to an extension for Turner or not? If the answer even borders on “no,” they should at least start gauging his value.

    General manager Mike Rizzo told reporters last week: “If we turn into definite sellers, everything will be on the table, I would think.” Rizzo added that he did not envision such a scenario taking place, but that was before right-hander Stephen Strasburg suffered yet another setback in his recovery from neck irritation. Before the Nationals scored a total of five runs in their last three losses to the Marlins and Orioles. Before they fell to 45-52, seven games behind the first-place Mets, and just four ahead of the last-place Marlins.

    Granted, the Mets are still without ace right-hander Jacob deGrom and shortstop Francisco Lindor, and their remaining schedule – including 13 straight games in August against the NL’s best clubs, the Giants and Dodgers – is the most difficult of the NL East contenders. Fine, let the Phillies and Braves dream of escaping the division’s morass. The Nationals, sitting on the game’s worst farm system, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, cannot make a credible case for winning the East, and they are 11 games behind the Padres for the second wild card, trailing five teams.

    To boost their system, the Nats need to trade. Making qualifying offers to ensure draft-pick compensation for their potential free agents is not an option. Scherzer, the only one who would warrant such an offer, is not eligible for one. The Tigers made him a qualifying offer in 2014, and under the collective-bargaining agreement a player cannot receive a QO twice.

    Both Rizzo and ownership previously have resisted rebuilding, and their stubbornness fueled the Nationals’ rebound from a 19-31 start to the World Series title in 2019. Their path now seems clear: Build around the two cornerstones, Turner and Soto. But easier said than done.

    Turner, 28, declined to sign an extension last spring, sensing Lindor – one year younger but quite possibly inferior – would hit the jackpot with a team that had just traded for him and was under a new owner. Sure enough, the Mets gave Lindor $341 million. It’s possible none of the 2021-22 free-agent shortstops in their late 20s – Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Javier Báez – will exceed that number. Regardless, the market has been set.

    Soto, 22, likely will be even more difficult to secure long-term. As a hitter, he draws comparisons to Ted Williams, and – gasp – he will be eligible for free agency entering his age 26 season. The Nationals surely are bracing for that possibility, knowing Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, is almost adamant about his clients establishing their values on the open market. Most agents are more willing than Boras to entertain extensions, but all realize that free agency is more lucrative. Turner’s agent, Jeff Berry of CAA, hit the market with J.T. Realmuto last offseason and landed a five-year contract with a $23.1 million average annual value, the largest for a catcher in major-league history.

    Perhaps, after losing Bryce Harper in March 2019 and Anthony Rendon nine months later, it is time for the Nationals finally to retain a free-agent position player. But they might be better off without Rendon, considering how disappointing he has been in the second year of his seven-year, $245 million agreement with the Angels. And while Harper’s OPS-plus in his first three seasons with the Phillies is identical to what it was with the Nationals, 10 years remain on his 13-year, $330 million deal.

    Rizzo built the Nats around starting pitching, a strategy that resulted in five postseason appearances between 2012 and ’19. But now, the risk of making major financial investments in such pitchers is starting to show. Scherzer’s seven-year, $210 million contract was one of the all-time free-agent bargains. Strasburg’s seven-year, $245 million deal might prove one of the all-time worst. Strasburg has thrown only 26 2/3 innings over two seasons due to a variety of maladies, and at 33 he is under contract for five more years at $35 million per season, with nearly one-third of his total guarantee deferred.

    Left-hander Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, has a 5.30 ERA over the past two seasons, and is owed $82 million over the next three. And even Scherzer, because of his deferrals, will continue receiving big money after his contract expires at the end of the season. The Nationals have benefited from paying Scherzer only half of his $30 million average annual values during his time with the club, especially with him outperforming his contract by a considerable margin. But the team now will owe him $15 million every July 1 from 2022 to ’28.

    The good news is, the Nats have no other guaranteed money on the books for next season other than injured reliever Will Harris’ $8 million salary. Owners as wealthy as the Lerners can always spend more, but it’s difficult to call this group cheap when it has ended the season with a top 10 payroll every year since 2013, exceeding the luxury-tax threshold in ’17 and ’18. The Nats can bring back Scherzer and fit Turner and Soto into their budgets long-term. But their challenges in keeping such players only will increase if the team continues to decline.

    Will Scherzer, who turns 37 on Tuesday, want to re-sign if 2022 seems destined to be the team’s third straight losing season? Will ownership under such circumstances want to make a major investment in Turner starting in ’23? Will Turner even want to stay if the team by then is still not close to contention?

    Nats fans understandably fret about a trade of Scherzer, who might be the first player to go into the Hall of Fame as a National. But trading Scherzer might be an easy decision compared to the complexities that await, first with Turner, then with Soto.
     
  2. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    I wonder if our interest in a OF is because we are anticipating shipping one of the ones we have elsewhere?
     
  3. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    @J.R. Thanks once again, man. I seriously appreciate you sharing these with us.
     
  4. cmlmel77

    cmlmel77 Up all Night Watching Houston Sports

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    It is just straight theft of intellectual property.
     
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  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I expect Astros to deal some OF depth (e.g., Chas, Meyers), but overall Straw is probably the easiest non-pitcher starter to upgrade assuming Astros still like Maldy for the difficult to quantify qualities.
     
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  6. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton could not agree on a contract extension, increasing the possibility he will be traded this offseason and perhaps making the team more willing to move right-hander Jose Berríos and other players under team control beyond this season.

    The Twins intend to compete in 2022, but Buxton now joins Berríos as players who are likely to become free agents at the end of that season. Buxton is unlikely to be moved before Friday’s trade deadline while he remains on the injured list with a fractured left hand. Berríos, however, would be one of the top starting pitchers available in a thin market. Left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers, also under team control through ’22, already is likely to be dealt, considering the demand for relievers at this time of year.

    The Twins’ initial offer to Buxton was for $73 million over an unspecified amount of years, and included incentives that would have increased its potential value, sources said. The two sides continued discussions after the team extended the proposal, and the Twins were believed to have increased the guarantee slightly. But ultimately the parties could not bridge the gap that defined these negotiations — the difference between what Buxton delivers as an oft-injured player, and what he might deliver if fully healthy.

    “We have had numerous conversations with the Twins over the years in regards to ‘Buck’ and his future with the organization,” said Buxton’s agent, B.B. Abbott of Jet Sports. “None of these talks change that he is a Twin for the rest of this year and assuming that they tender him a contract in arbitration, then he’ll be a Twin next year.

    “What the team decides to do in the interim to change the course of that future is certainly their right. But nothing changes as far as we’re concerned in regard to ‘Buck’’s goals going forward, which is to get healthy, to play for the organization, his teammates, the city and the fans.”

    Abbott declined comment on specific aspects of the negotiations. The Twins declined to comment.
     
    #706 J.R., Jul 25, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2021
    Htown Legend likes this.
  7. the shark

    the shark Member

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    In your opinion, who has the better prospects to offer the Nats for Scherzer between the 'Stros, NYY, Phil, SD, CWS and LAD? I certainly understand a teams unwillingness to part with a certain prospect(s) but where do the 'Stros stack up against these other teams?
     
  8. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Overall our system is behind most or all of them

    BUT

    This question is almost impossible to answer because it depends who would give up what

    Those organizations might have more and better prospects, but if we were to make Leon, Lee, Brown available (I personally hope we don’t) then any one of those guys might trump the top guy the others would offer

    How bad does Crane want to win right now vs how bad does he want to stay contenders for a long time

    That is the question Click has to have answered for him before he can do his job
     
  9. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    Buxton should have taken that $
     
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  10. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    I want a reliever and I want Starling Marte. Several hitters in prolonged slumps is starting to get annoying. It's going to look really ugly when you don't have a DH against the Giants and Dodgers this coming roadtrip and the bottom of the lineup is Toro, Straw, Maldonado, and a pitcher
     
  11. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Yea this is the gamble of all gambles
     
  12. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Getting Bregman, Diaz and “Correa” back fixes all that

    Having said that, Marte is a rental and won’t take a lot likely in prospect capital. I’m down with Marte, Yimi….Kennedy….Hudson
     
  13. Buck Turgidson

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    Greinke says to kiss his ass.

    Curious how soon they'll want to throw Diaz into the fire at 3B.
     
  14. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    Adam Frazier was traded to the Padres
     
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  15. skenney1993

    skenney1993 Member

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    Crazy how they still have a farm system to get deals done considering their starting rotation is all from trades and Clevinger is out too
     
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  16. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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  17. Buck Turgidson

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    Merrifield is perfect for that pissant team.
     
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  18. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

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    I support this 100% as long as he doesn’t go to a real contender
     
  19. Amshirvani

    Amshirvani Contributing Member

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    their mascot should be Fernando Viña
     
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  20. Buck Turgidson

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    I'm glad somebody else remembers.
     
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