We'll see. I've just seen the favorites fade in the homestretch too often to ever feel like it's a done deal.
They are interviewing him the next day after the Oakland vote And he’s in a suite in Vegas There’s the rio in the background But yeah believe that they are looking at San Antonio or wherever
Right now he's playing Vegas against Oakland. But if Oakland wants to play semantic political games and he's serious about moving, I'd be shocked if he didn't visit other cities as well, if not just for leverage to get the best deal possible from Vegas. Right now, I believe the Oakland Council thinks it has the upper hand to dictate terms. They're bureaucrats and don't understand they've already run out of time. The lease at the coliseum ends in 2024 and if everything was set in stone, the new ballpark wouldn't be ready before 2027. They are just dragging their feet because that works for them. To them, in a hurry means 10-15 years. And then they'll tax it left, right and upside down. Las Vegas has an inside track, but I firmly expect other players in very short order and they'll need to include a plan for temporary play while the stadium is constructed. Playing in a city when they know you're leaving never works out.
Las Vegas has a Metro of about 2.5M and would definitely be a smaller market than the shares 8.8M in the SF/OAK Metro which also has a new NFL team. Interestingly, the NC markets of Raleigh and Charlotte with about 5M between them seems to be the largest untapped market for MLB. And Salt Lake City also has a good population base.
I think the biggest untapped market is central Texas. I think between San Antonio and Austin you've got a huge region that could support a pro baseball team.
We think of them as separate entities, but they are competing for the fan's dollars in a smaller market. There are only so many dollars and people to spread around. It may go down just as you expect. But it also may not. And even if it does, it may not be as simple as saying we're going to Vegas before a deal is reached. You never start a negotiation by saying yo have to get a deal done because there are no other options unless you want to be taken to the cleaners. It's basic negotiation strategy to enter as if having strength, even when you have a weak hand. Having options or at least acting as if you do just helps to level the playing field for the negotiation. Some play their hand better than others, but everyone at the table knows an easy mark when they see one. You don't want to be him.
San Antonio 2.3M and Austin with 2M are borderline individually. I'm not sure they are close enough physically to support baseball which is played several days a week. San Antonio is also supporting an NBA team. It is similar to the Charlotte-Raleigh corridor with Charlotte supporting an NBA Team. In both cases, it might be smarter to locate in the non NBA city to focus on a closer untapped part of the market. They are alternative suitors. I am surprised Nashville really isn't larger. I guess it's more like Orlando with lot's of attention for it's size.
Nashville supports a football and a hockey team, though. I wonder if the real answer to largest untapped market is to focus on a smaller part of a megacity like NY or LA. 19 million people could support a 3rd team, surely. Imagine what the hype would be for bringing baseball back to Brooklyn, for instance?
Vegas has had a massive population explosion, particularly in Henderson, and they already have the NFL, the NHL, the NBA summer league, the WNBA and the A’s AAA affiliate and the Golden Knight’s minor league affiliate. They have all of the necessary infrastructure, are a destination city for traveling fans, and are business friendly. Pretty much the only way the don’t get an MLB team is if a stadium can’t be built, and that is a strong possibility. They will absolutely be MLB’s top choice otherwise.
