Interesting article on Scherzer to the Astros - YES PLEASE!

You ruin all Rockets players. Please stay away from Astros

 

You DON'T pay all the deferred salary ($120M), bonus ($7.5M) remaining 21 Salary (~$12M) and give away your young controllable high end prospects for two months in the regular season and the playoffs. There are many complicating factors, but you don't Mortgage your HOUSE for one night out on the town.

Even Randy Johnson lost a playoff game.

ps - I guess if you're headed toward divorce court and were going to lose the house anyway you might consider it.

 

I'd mortgage the house in this case =)

 

I don't like being homeless and I know I couldn't make the payments. Let the NYY do it and still miss the playoffs. Then sign Scherzer as a FA.

 

Scherzer for Verlander contract + B level prospects +cash is all I would do

 

From earlier in this thread, we wouldn't want to give up Verlander. We would just get them to eat most of Scherzer's contract. To them its, the same thing. To us, we would get a compensation pick if Verlander leaves.

 

Each component of a trade has it's own value. The Financial Obligations, the player values, the future pick values and roster values. To me, having him for the playoffs is worth about $40-$45M. That's a hefty price, but nothing near $140M and Prospects. I could see Scherzer plus $100M (for future obligations) leaving the Astros cost at ~$40M. Or throw in a Prospect and increase the Compensation sent to the Astros. Trading Verlander could offset Scherzer's Comp Pick value.

There are many options which could help create a structure that maximizes the mutual benefits, but competition and total valuation usually determine whether the negotiation is successful.

The key is making sure you don't PAY for more than you RECEIVE.

I personally tend to do this when I have an unexpected source of income and I proceed to spend the whole amount on 2 or 3 different things. Then you're worse off than when you started. Even though each decision appears good individually.

ie I'm going to use it to pay off my CC. I'm going to use it for a rare purchase opportunity. I'm going to put it in Savings for something unexpected. Any of those is reasonable, but you can't do all three.

 

Would be hush hush for Verlander to return next year

 

For some reason I still feel like he'll wind up in Detroit on a discount 1 or 2 year deal that the Astros couldn't get.

 

Again, as I learned from a prior post, we would both lose our compensation pick for a Verlander for Scherzer trade so there is absolutely no benefit to them or us if we did it. They would be in exactly the same situation if they just ate Scherzer's salary. If indeed we are talking to them about this trade, I'm sure the negotiation is how much of the deferred salary we have to take on and if we are sending anything back to them in terms of prospects.

 

I'd always hoped/assumed a deal for a top notch starter would go down as we need to maximize our window. While I don't want to mortgage our future, our time is now.

It appears Crane is all over it.

 

If I’m trying to predict Verlanders decisions, I would guess he plans to pitch 4-5 more years. He is highly confident in his ability to maintain his body, he is working hard at rehabbing from TJS, and he has been very vocal about pitching for as long as possible. And I do think he wants to finish his career in Detroit. However, he wants to play for contenders, and Detroit is very unlikely to contend next season. So I would guess he will look to sign a deal with a contending team for between 1 and 3 seasons, then sign with Detroit to finish up. I would guess his relationship with Crane and familiarity with the Astros and Strom would play heavily into his decision as to which contender to sign with, but ultimately it’ll probably come down to whichever contender offers him the most money/years. So it does seem to be a great match for the Astros to resign JV, but I’d probably handicap the odds at around 20% for now.

 

I'm glad the Astros front office doesn't take a random fan's inability to manage their own finances as justification to make or not make personnel decisions.

 

I have a source saying they know the Hinch family and there's a reason why they aren't leaving Houston and Hinch has an optout in his Detroit contract... also mentioned there's a reason Baker isn't getting an extension and it's not age...

So Hinch in Detroit may not be a reason for Verlander to go back... he could still go, but not as compelling reason...

 

I think Detroit is going to be good sooner rather than later. If I’m them I ask JV if he’d be interested in signing a 4 or 5 year deal right around 100 million.

 

Giving Verlander $100M with him coming off tommy John and Detroit coming off a ~70 win season seems like it would be a really bad idea.

 

I had not noticed the complete lack of details about Hinch's contract other than it's start date on COTS. I wanted to check on the option. Usually, teams get the options and the manager gets paid when he's inevitably fired before the contract expires. A manager having an option or opt out would be VERY UNUSUAL.

 

I really think JV will pitch in the playoffs because he wants to show that he is worth a decent contract. That is another reason not to trade him. If he can pitch 2 inning every other playoff game, it would increase our chances at a WS immensely. Would feel super good about giving Verlander the ball with a 2 run lead after the 6th inning. Let him pitch the 7th and 8th and handing the ball to Pressley.

 

I wouldn't think a guaranteed deal like that would work, but a deal with heavy incentives where that amount was possible might be. I don't think he'll get a 2 $66M deal like he got with the Astros.